July 2 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Streamers: Kyle Gibson, Sean Manaea, Carlos Carrasco and More
A look at Tuesday's probable starters who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups.
I regurgitate a lot of the same information here many days. I wish there was more to say, but a lot of times the story is the same: These teams are rotten on offense and give pitchers an easier time than their more powerful league-mates. I’m going to do something a little different today.
Each team listed here is in the bottom 10 in many offensive stats and/or struggles mightily in one area and/or strikes out a lot. Instead of listing how moribund they are, I’m going to look at the state of these teams as we approach the trade deadline.
Selling at the deadline happens for a reason: The team is bad and has more to gain by sending out veterans for young players rather than playing out the string with guys who won’t be around after this year. It’s not a coincidence that teams that end up on this list often are going to be sellers over the next few weeks.
Let’s look at Tuesday's probable starters (according to MLB.com) who are widely available in fantasy leagues and have good matchups, creating streaming value. Most stats and rankings are from MLB. The full streamer rankings are listed at the bottom.
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Chicago is the team most likely to sell this deadline. The White Sox are 30 games out of first place in their division (yes, 30 games) and about six games worse than anyone else in the league. No one on the major league roster should be off limits. Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde have both been good starting pitchers, and the team would be wise to cash in before they get injured (as pitchers often do).
I’ve been wondering how long it will be before the Guardians upgrade on Carrasco, but he keeps plugging away and has brought his performance from untenable to simply below average. Carrasco faced the White Sox on May 10 and took the loss as he gave up five runs (three earned) in seven innings with five strikeouts and no walks. That’s a decent outing and something he could replicate here.
Carrasco is a low- to mid-level streamer. He will never have a big ceiling because of the lack of strikeouts late in his career, but Carrasco has shown the ability to eat up innings every fifth day and has the matchup in his favor in this one.
Kyle Gibson, St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Gibson has been a very average pitcher in 2024. His walk rate is too high (almost 10%), but he’s striking guys out at an average rate for the first time in several years and holds an ERA under 4.00. He won’t blow anyone away, but there are many worse options than Gibson.
Pittsburgh had high hopes coming into the season as a young team on the rise who could win a weak NL Central. They are three games under .500 and nine back in the division, but their playoff hopes are alive due to the expanded Wild Card format. They are more likely to add than subtract at the deadline; it will still take multiple impact bats to get Pittsburgh’s offense to even an average level.
Gibson is a mid-level streamer with a little upside. His strikeout work gives him at least a some value in most situations, and the good matchup here puts him in position for a quality outing.
Sean Manaea, New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
Speaking of the expanded Wild Card format (three teams from each league make the playoffs as Wild Cards), only four teams are at least 10 games out of the last playoff spot: the White Sox and A’s in the AL and the Rockies and Marlins in the NL. Washington, despite the fourth-worst record in the National League, is just 4.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot.
The question isn’t the number of games back but rather the number of teams they are contending with. No matter how many middling squads there are grouped together, though, each team can talk themselves into a good two-week run putting them in playoff position, so many teams may still look to add or at least hesitate to sell.
Manaea has done good strikeout work in his career and holds a rate of 23.6% this season (against the league average around 21%). His career walk rate is also good, but he has struggled there this year with a rate over 10.5% (where league average is around 8%). It hasn’t hurt him too much so far, but Manaea would do well to give less free passes to his opponents.
Manaea is a mid-level streamer. Washington doesn’t hit well but they also don’t strike out much, so there isn’t a high ceiling, but Manaea does have a nice floor.
Michael Mercado, Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will almost certainly be looking to add at the deadline. They spent to bring in free agents in the offseason, and both Cody Bellinger and Shota Imanaga are maybe the best players on the team on their respective sides of the ball; it would make sense for Chicago to double down and fill a hole or two before the end of July.
Mercado has thrown just one major league inning (a perfect frame with a strikeout, for what it’s worth). He’ll be making his first start here in historic Wrigley Field, surely a big stage for any young pitcher. He struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors but also made about half his appearances out of the bullpen, so there’s reason to be wary of expecting too much.
Mercado is a low-level streamer. With just an OK matchup and no big-league track record, it’s hard to expect too much, and Mercado is probably in line for a short start either way.
Jose Soriano, Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Moving from a bullpen role last season to working as a starter in 2024, Soriano has lost about one-third of his strikeout rate. Part of that is a small sample, but it’s also in line with what happens to the numbers for most pitchers (though not to the same degree). He has also brought his walk rate down about three percentage points, balancing out his performance and allowing Soriano to find success in many starts.
Oakland joins the White Sox in the quest to sell spare parts like a Buffalo Nickel collection at a yard sale. They will probably hang onto a few young, cheap guys, but the pitching staff has more one-year players and surprise standouts who can be flipped to teams looking for bullpen help. That won’t bring many stars, but it creates a few more swings at useful future major leaguers.
Soriano is a mid-level streamer. His decent work combined with Oakland’s struggles with the bats means a good outlook for the young Dominican pitcher.
Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Detroit had a stretch during the first third of the season that made it seem like they could make a run at the playoffs, especially in an AL Central that’s been weak in many years over the last few decades. The good times ended, though, and the Tigers look more like the club that hasn’t had a winning record since 2016 or a playoff appearance since 2014.
While the guy they’d most like to dump, Javy Baez, won’t be going anywhere, Detroit could recoup some future value by sending out a few players who won’t be around next season as they look to build on encouraging performances.
Woods Richardson has been steady but unspectacular, going at least four innings in every start and less than five innings only four times in 13 starts while never working more than 6.1 innings. He has only allowed more than three runs twice, never truly tanking in any outing. That’s not exactly the work of a budding superstar, but it is a testament to his ability to hang in the big leagues.
Woods Richardson is another mid-level streamer. Everything points toward a middling matchup that will probably fall in line with the rest of his season.
Tuesday’s Streamer Rankings
- Kyle Gibson, STL
- Jose Soriano, LAA
- Sean Manaea, NYM
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
- Carlos Carrasco, CLE
- Michael Mercado, PHI
