NBA Props of the Night: Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis Antetokounmpo

The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks face off Thursday in the semifinals of the NBA In-Season Tournament (does anyone care about this tournament?). There are a few star players in this game with good matchups and the chance to excel, especially in a game that supposedly means more than the average regular season contest.

Tyrese Haliburton has become an unquestioned offensive star, averaging almost 27 points per game and leading the league with 11.9 assists per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t need any precursor, as a former MVP averaging over 30 points per game and leading one of the favorites in the East.

Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the league while Milwaukee is fifth. Those extra opportunities mean more chances for these star players to rack up stats and hit the over in a few categories.

All lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. The totals for both players are a little more than their season averages, surely a result of bookmakers knowing the same thing we do about how fast these teams play.

 

Tyrese Haliburton Outlook

Over/Under: 28.5 Points, 12.5 Assists, 40.5 Points+Assists

Haliburton’s jump to near-superstar status has brought the Pacers from a 35-win team to a playoff lock (maybe…probably). He is 14th in the league in scoring and, again, leads the league in assists.

Haliburton has reached 29 points in seven of 17 games. He played at least 36 minutes in all but one of those games (34 in the other). His season average is only 34 minutes per game, so he is scoring at a consistently higher number when his minutes are extended.

It’s not surprising that he scores more when he plays more, but it matters in a game that is purported to be played like a “playoff game.” Haliburton and Giannis are likely to get longer runs if the game stays competitive, and that will boost their numbers.

Haliburton has hit 13 assists in nine of 17 games and had 12 in another. He has had single-digit assists only three times, showing the ability to set up his teammates on a nightly basis. The over/under number is asking him to get just one more assist than his season average, which seems doable in a fast-paced game.

Milwaukee is allowing the fifth-most points per game to point guards and second-most to shooting guards; they don’t stop Haliburton’s position.

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo Outlook

Over/Under: 34.5 Points, 12.5 Rebounds, 46.5 Points+Rebounds

Giannis has a nice matchup, the same as Haliburton: Indiana is allowing the fifth-most points per game to power forwards and second-most to centers. That includes the eighth-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

These teams played on November 9, with the Pacers winning by two. Haliburton had a good game, tallying 29 points and 10 assists, but Giannis was the one who dominated: The Greek Freak ended with 54 points and 12 rebounds, leading both teams in each stat.

Antetokounmpo is as likely to go off as any player in the league, as evidenced by the last matchup. He has reached 35 points in just six of 20 games, but he has been below 30 points only eight times.

This is a big number; even superstars struggle to score 35 points. With the expected fast pace and good matchup, though, I have faith in Giannis reaching that total, even if he doesn’t hit the 54-point heights of the last contest between these teams.

The rebounds are a little tougher to predict, but I really like the points+rebounds prop. In a fast game, Giannis will touch the ball a lot, and the shots will be flying: this game is set up for big numbers for the star.

 

Game Total: Over/Under 257 Points

I bring this up just because of the number: ESPN says this game has the highest betting total since 1991. The last time these teams played, the score was 126-124, a total of 250 points. Seven points more isn’t a lot, just a few baskets, but games don’t hit 250 points on a regular basis: the average team this season is scoring about 114 points per game.

Indiana averages 128.4 points per game, while Milwaukee is at 122.3. That’s a total of 250.7, right where they finished last time. I understand why the number is so high, but I don’t think it will get there. The chances of finishing under are quite a bit better in my mind.

 

The Bets

Confidence Rating for Tyrese Haliburton:

Over 28.5 Points: 5 out of 5

Over 12.5 Assists: 3 out of 5

Over 40.5 Points+Assists: 4 out of 5

The ball will be in his hands, and the team will ask Haliburton to lead them to victory against one of the best teams in the league. It’s a great matchup, and Haliburton has the chance to top all these numbers.

I like the points best because it relies only on the player; can he score or not? Assists rely more on teammates having to make shots, so I like the points+assists combo more than the secondary stat alone.

 

Confidence Rating for Giannis Antetokounmpo:

Over 34.5 Points: 4 out of 5

Over 12.5 Rebounds: 3 out of 5

Over 46.5 Points+Rebounds: 4 out of 5

I’m stopping short of a “5 out of 5” on Giannis’s points because of how high the number is; he can still have a great offensive performance and not reach 35 points.

I think I actually like the points+rebounds combo a little bit more than points alone, giving him more chances at multiple stats as possessions add up. Rebounds alone is an iffy proposition in any game, even if there’s a decent chance he gets there.

 

Confidence Rating for Under 257 Total Points: 2 out of 5

Milwaukee’s games have reached 250 points eight times in 21 games (38%), with four of those getting to at least 257 (19%). Indiana has hit 250 total in 10 of 19 games (53%), seven with at least 257 (37%).

These teams could easily reach this number, but it’s hard to expect two teams to have great games for 48 minutes, and that’s what it might take to hit 257. I would take the under, but I don’t like this bet enough to actually lay money.