Fantasy Baseball First Base Draft Bust Candidates for 2025: Matt Olson, Vinnie Pasquantino, Yandy Diaz and Paul Goldschmidt

Let’s continue the fantasy baseball draft bust series with the first base position.

For the first time in a draft bust candidate story, I only have four players to mention. The first base position is a bit weak overall, and there’s really not too many players who I think will underperform big time this season.

We’ve gone over draft bust candidates at second base, third base and shortstop so far. Here’s my top-10 rankings for redraft and dynasty leagues going into 2025.

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1. Matt Olson

Olson is my No. 4 fantasy first basemen for 2025. He’s coming off a down 2024 season, and it’s possible that’s the type of player he remains.

Olson continues to be durable, so that’s a plus in his favor. He’s played in 162 games in three straight seasons and was part of 156 games in the season before that. Just being on the field that much can turn a down season into a pretty positive one still, and that’s why I have him ranked fourth.

Last season, Olson had a .247 average. That was nearly 40 points lower than his .283 mark in 2023. Olson is a career .254 hitter, so I’d expect a similar showing in 2025, not a bounce back to his 2023 mark.

Olson had a .333 on-base percentage, which is still pretty good, but was way off his .389 mark from 2023. He has a career .349 OBP, so even a little increase in average would get Olson back closer to that mark.

Where he really fell short of expectations were in the home run, RBI and run categories. Olson had 29 homers, 98 RBIs and 78 runs scored. Those are pretty good numbers for most players, but they are not even close to the 54 homers, 139 RBIs and 127 runs he scored in 2023.

It’s possible Olson already peaked, but he’s also only 30 years old, so I think there’s still some big seasons left in his bat. I expect him over 30 homers and 100 RBIs again, and to score at least 10 or so more runs. 

His down 2024 season makes him more affordable going into the 2025 season. If his ADP stays down and he replicates his numbers from last year, he won’t be quite as big a bust as last season. 

I think Olson still finishes inside the top-10 fantasy first basemen, but he still could be labeled a bust after being in the top five or six on most ranking lists.

2. Vinnie Pasquantino

Pasquantino actually scored more fantasy points than Olson last season, which is impressive considering Pasquantino only played in 131 games.

That was the most games Pasquantino has played across his three-year career, which is part of the reason why he’s on my draft bust candidate story. He’s only had one solid season of fantasy results so far, and he still missed over 30 games last year.

In his 131 games, Pasquantino had a .262 average and .315 OBP. He hit 19 home runs, but drove in 97 runs. He also scored 64 times. If Pasquantino can get in closer to 162 games, going over 20 home runs and 100 RBIs shouldn’t be an issue, and he’d probably score around 70 runs too.

There’s definitely reason to be skeptical of Pasquantino, but at a weaker fantasy position, he’s pretty locked into a top-10 spot. I think he has a bigger chance to be a draft steal than a draft bust, but based on how early I see him going in mock/real fantasy drafts, there’s also a chance he’s one of the bigger busts at the position.

Preferably, Pasquantino would be my second fantasy first basemen, or to have a solid secondary choice in case Pasquantino regresses.

3. Yandy Diaz

Diaz was my No. 10 fantasy first basemen for the 2025 season. He finished outside the top 10 last season and was a pretty big draft bust.

In 145 games last season, Diaz had a .281 average and .341 OBP, with 14 home runs, 65 RBIs and 55 runs scored. It was his most games played in his eight-year career, but the numbers fell way short of his 2023 marks.

In 137 games in 2023, Diaz had a .330 average and .410 OBP. He clubbed 22 homers and drove in 78 runs, while scoring 95 times. 

He’s a career .288 hitter with a .373 OBP, so the average could continue to be around what he posted in 2024, but a nice bounceback in the OBP department should make him a better fantasy option, and I think that will help him finish inside the top 10.

While his numbers regressed pretty significantly last season, he still was a pretty good fantasy option. He’s a better secondary fantasy first basemen, but is still worth a pick late in fantasy drafts in case he bounces back a bit.

I’m still putting him in the draft bust candidate story though after what he showed in 2024. He’s also 33 years old, and usually players regress around that age, so last year might have been the first year of that.

We’ll see if Diaz can prove some people wrong in 2025.

4. Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt failed to crack my top 10, but he was part of my honorable mention list. He didn’t even finish inside the top 20 at the position in 2024.

Goldschmidt signed with the Yankees this offseason, which gave his fantasy stock a big boost. Goldy is being drafted well before Diaz on average, and is a borderline top-10 fantasy 1B, which sets him up to be a draft bust again.

In 154 games last season, Goldschmidt had a .245 average and .302 OBP. Those numbers are way off his career marks (.289 average and .381 OBP). 

Goldy hit 22 home runs and drove in 65 runs. Those numbers were lower than his 2023 marks, and way off his marks from 2021 (31 homers, 99 RBIs) and 2022 (35 homers, 115 RBIs).

Goldschmidt did steal 11 bases to get a little more fantasy value, but that could also deteriorate in his age-37 season. He scored 70 runs last season, the lowest mark in a full season in his entire career.

The move to New York was a big positive for his fantasy outlook, but maybe his days of being a viable fantasy asset are already over. He’s expected to hit in the heart of the Yankees’ lineup, but there’s enough talent on the team to move him down the order considerably if he isn’t hitting well.

It’s a shame Goldschmidt was signed by the Yankees, because it really ruined his fantasy outlook. He would have been a late-draft option and potential draft steal if he’d stayed with St. Louis or not joined such a powerful offense.

Instead, Goldschmidt is going 30+ picks earlier and is looked at as a top-10 fantasy 1B. I just don’t see Goldschmidt finishing that well by the end of the season, even though I do expect him to produce some better numbers across the board because of the lineup he’s now a part of.

I’d rather take a chance on some other fantasy 1B going after him (some will be named in my draft steal story, so check back for that). The only way I’d really want to take Goldy is if he fell several rounds.