The Box Score: Five NBA Numbers that Stood Out on Tuesday | Kyrie Irving, Domantas Sabonis, Anthony Davis and More
Identifying a handful of players who had one or more telling stats that can help us plan for the fantasy basketball future.
It's such an anxious time waiting for each weekend of the NFL playoffs. We spend so much time breaking down every regular season game that the more intense focus on the postseason is definite overkill. Rather than dwelling on the days between now and Wild Card weekend, however, we have NBA slates every day with great performances, usually with underlying details.
Here are five numbers (or sets of numbers) that stood out Tuesday night and the fantasy basketball impact or lesson we can take away. Advanced stats are from NBA.com. Defensive rankings against positions are from FantasySP and Fantasy Pros.
Domantas Sabonis – 37 Points, 10 Rebounds, 13 Assists
Keegan Murray – 32 Points
The Kings continued the league’s rite of passage of beating up on the Pistons, winning 131-110. Both Sabonis and Murray were able to excel, along with 26 points for De’Aaron Fox.
Murray had 47 points on Dec. 16, but this is otherwise his highest scoring output of the year. Sabonis has 10 triple-doubles on the season, and eight of them have come since Dec. 18. These are great players who stuff the stat sheet, but this is more about Detroit than anything else.
Fantasy Impact
The Pistons have the worst record in the league, and it’s easy to make a case for them being the worst team overall (though a few others are making their own arguments). The Pistons play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league and have the third-worst defensive rating. They give opponents a lot of possessions and allow them to score at one of the highest rates in the league.
We could go all day with stats about how bad Detroit is: They are in the top eight in most points per game allowed to every position except power forward, against whom they are league average. Things aren’t any better when broken down to larger groups of “guards” and “forwards.”
You can make any case you want with numbers, but it would be really hard to figure out how to make Detroit look good in any way. Target this team defensively when streaming players or making start/sit decisions.
Kyrie Irving – 33 Points
Luka Doncic – 31 Points
The superstar guards were close in every stat across the box score, not just points. Memphis has a top-10 defensive rating, so it’s impressive to see two players both go off in the same game. Jaren Jackson Jr. missed the game, taking a huge deterrent out of the middle of the paint, and it’s reasonable to expect things to go differently when he’s on the court.
Matchups and inactive players factor heavily into player production. The most successful fantasy players (and gamblers) are watching lineups right up until game time before making decisions. Jackson sitting out changed the entire game.
In two previous matchups this season with both Doncic and Jackson playing but Irving out, Doncic scored 35 points in each contest. When Irving faced Memphis in one game without Doncic, however, he was held to 10 points in 36 minutes.
Fantasy Impact
Rather than the Grizzlies, who are officially out of the contenders group with Ja Morant out for the year, I want to focus on the two high-scoring Dallas stars. Irving has scored 30 points just four times this season, and Doncic had at least 30 of his own in each of those games.
That’s an interesting note, and most importantly it proves how impactful Doncic really is. Even with another high-usage player, he is likely to always dominate the ball given his point guard and scoring skills.
Irving is a little different. He’s obviously a large step behind Doncic in fantasy value, but Irving doesn’t have the same juice as he’s had in previous seasons. A lot of that comes from Doncic dominating the ball, but it results in Irving hanging out with the middle-of-the-pack fantasy starters rather than the stars.
Anthony Davis – 41 Points, 13-14 Free Throws
We know Davis is a star, but it can sometimes be hard to properly value him. His upside is apparent: Davis is 14th in the league in scoring (24.7) and second in rebounding (12.2). Those numbers are near his career bests, though he won’t reach the 28 points per game he did at his peak in New Orleans.
Davis will produce when he’s on the court, but his availability has been as good as at any point in his career. Davis has played 36 out of 38 games; that rate would put him at about 77 games played, which would beat his career high of 75 (twice).
Fantasy Impact
Given his ability and consistency on the court this season, has Davis become the best fantasy player on the Lakers? LeBron is LeBron. He will do his thing. The two are almost identical in scoring and shot attempt average.
Davis has a big advantage in rebounding, while James has a big lead in assists. They are close in steals, but Davis has a decided edge in blocks. Davis is fourth in ESPN’s total fantasy points; James is sixth. You could make the argument either way, and that says a lot about Davis this season.
So, will it continue? I’m more worried about his availability on the court than his production while playing.
The NBA instituted a rule coming into this season that players had to appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for season-long awards and All-NBA teams. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but Davis has only missed two games and Kawhi Leonard has only missed four (and is on pace for near his most games played in a season).
Their playing time has undoubtedly been affected by the new rule and the NBA stressing to teams that they can’t just rest players on a regular basis. The league wants the regular season to matter; those of us who watch know the regular season doesn’t matter right now. I’m going to be watching how teams rest players toward the end of the season after they are near or past the 65-game marker.
We won’t know until we see it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if guys like Davis and Leonard (and other aging stars) sat out a lot more during the second half. They will play more games to appease the league, but “sore ankles” and “tight backs” are likely to become more common after the All-Star break.
Value players accordingly as to how you feel about the situation. If you agree with me, those guys have way more value now and until your trade deadline than they will late in the season. If you think the playing time will continue, these guys should be nearly untouchable.
The NBA wants players to play, and the league gets what it wants. I don’t personally know of inside workings, but I’d bet a lot gets said privately that will never come out, and teams follow orders. There’s a chance oft-injured players will be on the court a lot more often than in the last handful of years. It’s something to take into consideration when making decisions for your fantasy team.