Fantasy Basketball Draft Day Comparisons | Victor Wembanyama or Nikola Jokic, CJ McCollum or Tobias Harris and Other Trending Decisions

Before the weekend hits, I wanted to cover some fantasy basketball draft questions.

Using the FantasySP Who Should I Draft tool, let’s answer some of the bigger trending decisions now. 

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Draft Victor Wembanyama or Nikola Jokic?

Let’s start with an absolute doozy between two of the best fantasy basketball players going into the season.

Right now, Jokic is the top pick in head-to-head or category/roto scoring, according to FantasySP draft data. Wembanyama is third on both lists, with only Luka Doncic separating the two bigs.

A season ago, Jokic played 79 games, while Wemby played 71. Jokic averaged more points (26.4), rebounds (12.4), assists (9), steals (1.4) and had higher shooting percentages overall (58.3%), 3-point land (35.9%) and the free-throw line (81.7%). Wembanyama had more blocks per game (3.6) while posting other averages of 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.2 steals and shooting 46.5% overall, 32.5% from deep and 79.6% from the free-throw line.

You might look at those numbers and wonder why people are wondering who the top pick should be. What some fantasy owners are forgetting is that Jokic is 29 years old and has probably played pretty close to his peak already, while Wembanyama is only 20 years old and just starting to get acclimated to the NBA.

While I do expect bigger jumps in averages for Wembanyama, I’m not quite ready to take him over Jokic, with the biggest stat being the assists. Wemby would have to average at least 3-4 more assists per game this season to be in the same fantasy realm as Jokic. I expect him to close the gap, and maybe pass Jokic, in points, rebounds and steals, but he won’t overtake Jokic enough in those stats to overcome so many less assists.

I think Jokic still deserves to be the top fantasy pick in all redraft leagues types for the upcoming season. Wembanyama could close the gap enough to expect the youngster to pass him in the 2025-26 season, but we’re not there yet.

Now in a dynasty league, I think Wemby should indeed be the top pick, but just about every dynasty ranking list will suggest he should be.

Draft Duncan Robinson or Obi Toppin?

Robinson and Toppin are neck and neck in the H2H ADP list right now, going between picks 184-186 on average. Robinson is a shooting guard, while Toppin is a power forward, but if you aren’t looking for a specific position at this point in a draft, it makes sense to debate who the better fantasy player might be.

Toppin played in all 82 games last season, while Robinson appeared in 68. That alone is massive for fantasy leagues, especially H2H ones.

Robinson averaged more points, assists and steals, while Toppin led the way in rebounds and blocks. Toppin also posted the better field goal and 3-point percentage, while Robinson shot free throws at a better clip.

Robinson averaged 12.9 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.7 assists and 0.2 blocks. He shot 45% overall, 39.5% from deep and 88.9% from the line. Toppin averaged 10.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.5 blocks and shot 57.3% overall, 40.3% from deep and 77% from the line. 

The extra games helped Toppin finish as the better fantasy player last season, scoring 1,805 fantasy points to Robinson’s 1,600. Broken down to a per-game basis, Toppin averaged 22 fantasy points, while Robinson was at 23.5. So when both are healthy, Robinson is the slightly better fantasy player in a points league. 

Looking at the teams they are on, things look far more favorable for Toppin though. He’s stuck behind Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner at PF and C, but is likely going to be the top PF off the bench. Robinson is buried in the rotation - Terry Rozier, Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Alec Burks, Jimmy Butler and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are all players likely to get run over Robinson.

It’s mostly a hunch, but that roster crunch is making Toppin the more valuable draft pick in my eyes. Add in that he plays every game and that’s enough for me to safely take him over Robinson.

Draft CJ McCollum or Tobias Harris?

McCollum is going around pick 63 in H2H leagues and pick 62 in category/roto leagues. Harris is around pick 80 in H2H leagues and category/roto leagues. It might not look all that close at first glance, but Harris joining a Detroit desperate for better players probably has fantasy owners debating this pretty seriously.

Harris played 70 games last season, while McCollum appeared in 66. McCollum led the pair in points, assists and 3-point percentage. Harris averaged more rebounds, steals and blocks and had a better field goal and free throw percentages.

Harris averaged 17.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1 steal and 0.7 blocks. He shot 48.7% overall, 35.3% from deep and 87.8% from the line. McCollum shot 45.9% overall, 42.9% from deep, 82.7% from the line and averaged 20 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks per contest.

McCollum started every game for the Pelicans last season, but he could move into a sixth man role for the upcoming campaign. Regardless, he should play enough minutes to be a fantasy asset in all formats, but a move to the bench would definitely hurt him a little.

Meanwhile, Harris almost certainly will start for the Pistons and might be the second scoring option only to Cade Cunningham. I’d expect similar numbers to the ones he posted in Philadelphia last season.

So at their current ADPs and under the thinking I have, I’d much rather prefer drafting Harris a couple rounds later, instead of getting McCollum a couple rounds earlier. Unless the Pelicans come out and announce McCollum as a starter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his ADP drop closer to Harris’ as the regular season closes in. Both are solid fantasy assets in the middle rounds, but Harris seems far safer right now.

Draft Grayson Allen or Malik Monk?

Allen is going around pick 131 in H2H leagues, while Monk is around pick 114. They both play the same position though, so debating them makes a ton of sense.

Allen played in 75 games to 72 for Monk last season. Allen led the way in rebounds, steals and blocks, as well as overall shooting percentage, 3-point percentage and free throw percentage. Monk was the better scorer and passer.

Allen averaged 13.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3 assists, 0.9 steals and 0.6 blocks, while shooting 49.9% overall, 46.1% from 3-point land and 87.8% from the free-throw line. Monk averaged 15.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.5 blocks and shot 44.3% overall, 35% from deep and 82.9% from the line.

In points leagues, Allen scored 2,214 points, while Monk tallied 2,110. Averaged out, Allen averaged 29.5 fantasy points per game, while Monk was at 29.3.

Monk did all his work off the bench, and could remain in that role for 2024-25. Allen started 74 of the team’s 75 games last season, but isn’t in the starting lineup plan for this coming season.

So seeing as Allen’s role might decrease, while Monk’s could increase, I like Monk’s fantasy value more. Both are solid fantasy assets and good late-round picks. 

We’ll cover more draft decisions in the weeks leading up to the season, so be sure to keep checking back for more!