Fantasy Basketball Impact of NBA Players in New Homes: Paul George, Karl-Anthony Towns, Klay Thompson and More

Nine veterans who joined new teams in the offseason and how their roles might differ from the past.

Sometimes, all you need is a fresh start. A lot of people feel that way around the end of high school and college, thinking the green grass of a new situation is just on the other side of graduation. Life will change, and you can be whoever you chose to be in a new situation.

Athletes probably feel the same when their contract comes up. They may have been stuck with the team that drafted them for four years, but free agency offers the chance at that fresh start.

A trade can do the same thing; it’s more about the outcome of a new home surrounded by new teammates with a new coach and possibly about to play a new role. There’s a lot of new, and while new can be good, it’s also unknown.

For NBA players in new homes, that unknown is how they will fit in and what role they will ultimately play, both in terms of minutes and usage rate. Fantasy owners must make decisions on these guys without more than projection.

Let’s look at nine veterans who found new homes in the offseason, either as free agent signings or trade acquisitions, and what we can expect in fantasy terms heading into the season. Some players are going to look the same no matter where they play, but other guys will be in unfamiliar roles with new star teammates.

Harrison Barnes and Chris Paul, San Antonio Spurs

Speaking of star teammates, Barnes and Paul both join forces with Victor Wembanyama, last year’s top overall pick who burst onto the scene. Wemby looks on the way to superstardom, and two seasoned veterans can only help stabilize things on a roster that was the youngest on opening day a year ago.

Paul came off the bench for the first time in his career with the Warriors last season. It was the first time he ever averaged under 30 minutes per game (26.4), and Paul put up career worst averages essentially across the board. With Paul turning 40 in May, his age will take a toll on his performance, leaving him as more of a name than a producer.

Barnes is about seven years younger than Paul but still on the wrong side of 30 and on the downswing. Last year, Barnes averaged his lowest stats in most categories since he played for the Warriors (whom he left in 2016). He took on the role of a volume player on bad teams, putting up stats but not finding any real team success after leaving Golden State.

Both guys are still able to contribute, but they will probably do it at career-low rates. They are fantasy backups who can fill in on the right days; lower minute totals will impact their fantasy production, though the situation looks decent for both.

DeMar DeRozan, Sacramento Kings

DeRozan moved to the Kings in a sign-and-trade from the Bulls, with Barnes moving to San Antonio in the same deal. While DeRozan is 35, he went the opposite direction of Barnes and Paul, averaging the most minutes of his career in ’23-24 (37.8).

While he didn’t hit career highs across the board, DeRozan was above his career averages in most areas. Sacramento brought him in to help boost the team forward after a run of disappointment, making the playoffs just once since 2006. With more ball handlers around him, DeRozan might see his usage dip, though.

De'Aaron Fox (30%), Malik Monk (24.7%), and Domantas Sabonis (22%) all had usage rates over 20% while playing at least 50 games for the Kings last year. DeRozan (25.2%), Nikola Vucevic (23.3%), and Coby White (22.4%) met those criteria for the Bulls. DeRozan will now have three teammates with usage rates over 20% rather than two, including Fox who had the 10th-highest usage rate among all players who appeared in 50 games.

Less time with the ball likely means lower stats for DeRozan than last season. He will be the second option at best and probably defer to Sabonis at times. Without a consistent 3-point shot, DeRozan won’t thrive around those guys, dropping his value from previous seasons.

Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers

George changed the outlook of the 76ers. They had an All-Star at both point guard and center, but Philly was low on star power at the forward positions. George is one of the best all-around players of his generation, and though he will turn 35 in May, George keeps chugging along and producing.

George was right around his career averages last season, shooting a little better but rebounding at a lower rate. It will be interesting to see how much he handles the ball in Philadelphia; it makes sense to let him act as the best third option in the league at times so he can be a full-effort defender.

George led the Clippers with a 26.4% usage rate last year. Joel Embiid (38.7%) and Tyrese Maxey (27.3%) were at higher numbers. A likely outcome would be each of the three repeating those numbers, with Embiid dominating the touches while Maxey and George work as star Robins to the big man’s Batman.

That sounds like a winning situation, but it limits George’s ceiling. Embiid’s injury history means there will be times George is the top option, but it’s not likely to be a long-term opportunity. Draft George as a major contributor, but don’t expect any breakout or big improvement.

Dejounte Murray, New Orleans Pelicans

Trae Young was the only player in Atlanta getting more touches than Murray, giving the latter a chance to lead the offense when the former was resting. New Orleans had three guys with a usage rate over 24%: Zion Williamson (28.5%), Brandon Ingram (26.9%), and CJ McCollum (24.4%).

Murray’s 25.9% rate was good, but he’s likely to lose touches to the group returning to New Orleans. There are trade rumors around Ingram and McCollum, but until one of them moves, this might be a bit of a logjam for touches.

That seems like a drop in stats for Murray compared to last season, even if it’s a modest fall. Murray isn’t a guy I see as having a high ceiling. He’s more just part of the group of good guards and not someone I’m going out of my way to draft.

Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns, New York Knicks

Donte DiVincenzo, Minnesota Timberwolves

Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards both had usage rates just over 31% last year, leading their respective teams. Randle (28.7%) and Towns (26.8%) were second and will essentially swap places in the offensive hierarchy.

They play different styles, but each will do their thing at close to the same rate they have in the past. The same can be said for DiVincenzo, the third player involved in the Randle/Towns swap. DiVincenzo was around 21% usage, a number that would have been fourth on the Wolves last season among players with more than 25 games.

Randle and Towns can be expected to produce much like they have in the past, making their draft rankings very fair. DiVincenzo is a borderline keeper but maybe a better streamer depending on how many guards you draft early.

Klay Thompson, Dallas Mavericks

How much does Thompson have left at age 34 (35 in February)? He will likely do less running off screens and more standing and waiting to shoot on passes from Luka Doncic. That’s not a bad life, but it’s likely to cut into his production.

Kyrie Irving is also there to soak up possessions, especially when Doncic sits. Dallas’ top two players each had usage rates 4-5% higher than Golden State’s top two players. There are less shots to go around in Dallas, likely giving Thompson less opportunities to rack up numbers.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Thompson hit career lows in certain stats in his first season with the Mavs, most notably shot attempts and scoring average. Thompson’s addition in Dallas is more of a real-life fit than a fantasy boon for the player.

There are also injury concerns in his past, though Thompson has played 69 and 77 games the past two seasons. With his age advancing, lower minute totals or missed games might come as a result. Thompson is a fine mid- or later-round pick, but he’s probably not going to play as well as any prime season with the Warriors.

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