One Draft Steal in the Top Six Fantasy Basketball Rounds: Victor Wembanyama, Scottie Barnes, Jalen Johnson and More

Morgan picks out a draft steal candidate from the first six rounds based on current fantasy basketball draft data.

A couple weeks ago, I did a story on one draft bust in each of the first six rounds. Today, I’m back to tell you a draft steal in each of the first six rounds.

We’ll be using data from the FantasySP Average Draft Position page and be looking at things in terms of being in a 10-team points league. 

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Round 1 - Victor Wembanyama

I figured my draft steal would come from one of the last picks in the first round, but it actually came from the guy currently sitting third on the ADP list. All Wemby did in his first NBA season was average 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 3.6 blocks. He shot 46.5% from the field, 32.5% from 3-point land and was a 79.6% shooter from the free-throw line. 

Everyone is expecting improvement from Wembanyama, and that improvement is what makes him the best candidate to be a draft steal. According to ESPN settings, Wemby was already No. 8 in points leagues a season ago. Improvement in several statistics, primarily his scoring, should put him in contention for the No. 1 overall fantasy spot.

While I expect a nice sophomore jump from the Spurs’ big man, I don’t think he’s quite ready to become the No. 1 overall fantasy player. Him playing in just about every game, or having some of the other top-end fantasy players miss some games could make things tight by the end of the season, but I think ADP has it right - I too have Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic being better fantasy players this season.

Wemby’s time as the No. 1 fantasy option is coming soon though.

Round 2 - Scottie Barnes

My second-round draft steal is player No. 20 overall on the ADP list. Barnes averaged 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks across 60 games last season. 

Closer to a full season of games should have Barnes easily inside the top 20 by the end of the year, and if he improves a little bit (like me and most people believe), Barnes could push for a spot inside the top 10.

Well-rounded players like Barnes are hard to find, and that’s what I love about him near the end of the second round. You can draft him and know he’s going to at least replicate last year’s numbers, but he’s more likely to improve in several statistics than take a step back (unless he is hampered by injuries again).

Round 3 - Damian Lillard

Lillard was traded to the Bucks right before last season kicked off, and he admitted he wasn’t as prepared for the season as he hoped to be. He still averaged 24.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 steal and 0.2 blocks per game.

Now with a year under his belt, I expect Lillard to get back to his old ways. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still there to power the Bucks, but Lillard is the clear No. 2, especially as the team looks to keep Khris Middleton healthy and ready for a postseason run.

I think we could see Dame average more points this season, even if he’s getting the same amount of shots as last season. Lillard has pretty well-rounded numbers when you tack on assists and rebounds, and for a measly third-round pick, he’s got a very safe floor, but a higher ceiling.

Round 4 - Jaylen Brown

This is more about Brown being undervalued than him improving his play this season. He averaged 23 points, 5.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.5 blocks per game last season.

Boston has pretty much the same team in place as they hope to repeat, but Kristaps Porzingis will be out for a while. That opens up some scoring and rebounding chances for Brown and company, and I think that will help him be a better fantasy finisher than his draft pick slot says.

Brown is already a pretty well-rounded player, and if you add just a bit of points and rebounds to those averages from last year, he can definitely become a draft steal.

Round 5 - Franz Wagner

Wagner is another rising star, and that’s what qualifies him for this story today. He averaged 19.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.1 steals and 0.4 blocks last season.

I think Wagner is still several years away from his prime, and will continue to increase his averages across the board. He also saw a sharp decline in 3-point percentage last season, and if he can even split the difference between his first couple seasons and last year, his point total should shoot up a good bit.

He does enough else besides scoring to be a good fantasy asset as well. Wagner is one of those players to take a little gamble on if you’re able to draft really well in the first couple rounds.

Round 6 - Jalen Johnson

This is a no brainer pick for me in the sixth. He averaged 16 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks last season.

Johnson broke out in a big way in his third NBA season. His season was cut short after an injury, which I think is helping him still be available this late in drafts.

I expect his averages to keep rising this coming season, and I think he should easily be a top 50 player. If he can remain healthy and not miss extended time, there’s a chance for him to be a top-30 player.

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