Where does the NBA Stand with One Month to Go? Thunder, Cavs at the Top and Lakers Among the Contenders
A look at where each team is at with about one month until the end of the NBA season.
The final games of the NBA regular season will be played on April 13, about one month away. The NBA has an epidemic of fans not being interested in the regular season, so if you're part of the majority, you might not be in-tune with the season as we reach the home stretch.
Let's look at where everyone stands and which teams we will likely be seeing come playoff time. There are a lot of franchises in familiar places, but you will also likely get a surprise or two if you haven't been keeping close track.
We'll start by focusing on the contenders and playoff teams, then we'll quickly hit the bottom dregs who are dreaming of a star prospect in the draft. Everything below is true as of the end of Thursday, March 13. Stats are from NBA.com.
Both Top Seeds are (Essentially) Set
This isn't mathematically locked into place yet, but the Cleveland Cavaliers (8.5 games) and Oklahoma City Thunder (12 games) lead their respective conferences by a big enough margin that there's almost no way they will fall below anyone else. Cleveland is 1.5 games better than OKC for the best record in basketball.
The underlying numbers back up their success. A good measure of a championship team is often a squad that ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating: Cleveland is first in offense and seventh in defense, and OKC is fourth in offense and first on defense. The Celtics, Timberwolves, and Grizzlies (within 0.1 point) are the other teams that meet both criteria.
What does the Eastern Conference Look Like?
Boston, last year's champs, are 4.5 games above the Knicks for the second seed. The Celtics are probably the favorite in the East until they get knocked off; Cleveland's home-court advantage in a possible conference championship matchup will help their cause.
After the Knicks, three teams are within one game of each other: Milwaukee, Indiana, and Detroit. Those are likely the six teams that will finish above the play-in. New York is in the middle in defense and ranks fifth in offensive rating, putting them near possible contender status. The Bucks are also really close, while the Pacers and Pistons are half a step behind.
It's easy to get too excited about the potential of good playoff series, but this looks like a potential set of fun matchups on this side of the bracket. There's still a month for injuries to rack up and new acquisitions to get more comfortable; as of now, we have hope for playoffs worth watching, though.
Atlanta, Orlando, Miami, and Chicago are in the 7-10 spots, the teams who would take part in the play-in. They are all at least 4.5 games from both sixth and 11th, so these four squads are likely to stay where they are, though there's still enough time for change. None of them measure up to the top teams, and whoever makes it through is likely to go down easily in the first round.
What does the Western Conference Look Like?
After the Thunder, there are four teams within a game of each other: Memphis, Denver, the Lakers, and Houston. Denver's defense is lacking behind, as they are second in offense but 21st in defensive rating. LA is just outside the top 10 in both categories, while Houston is third in defense and in the middle on offense.
It appears to be Oklahoma City's conference to lose, though it's never that easy. Memphis is in the top 10 on both sides of the ball, as I mentioned above, but the Lakers now have two superstars and championship aspirations. It would be fair to say they have a higher ceiling now than their season-long numbers would indicate given the addition of Luka Doncic.
The next group, spanning from the sixth through eighth seeds, includes the Warriors, Timberwolves, and Clippers. Sacramento and Dallas are the final teams in play-in position, with Phoenix a few games behind. I mentioned above that Minnesota is in the top 10 in both offense and defense, so it's fair to think they could make some noise.
Golden State is eighth on defense but just 16th on offense, maybe the opposite profile of a Stephen Curry team. The Clippers have a similar look (fourth on defense, 19th on offense). The Kings, Mavericks, and Suns all lean the opposite way, making the grade on offense but falling short defensively.
Draft Implications
Everyone who wasn't mentioned is fighting for draft position at this point. The lottery makes it tougher for a team to just hit the bottom and get the top pick, but losing still gives the best chance at the highest picks, even with more flattened odds.
The four teams with fewer than 20 wins are New Orleans, Charlotte, Utah, and Washington, each with between 14-18 victories. Next are Brooklyn, Philadelphia, and Toronto with either 22 or 23 wins. The final teams we haven't mentioned (Portland and San Antonio) are closer to the final play-in spot than falling into the top draft territory, both about five games behind the 10th seed.
We won't know who will get a chance at Cooper Flagg and the other elite prospects until the lottery, but the usual suspects are mostly in line. As it's tank time, expect to see plenty of bad basketball over the final month while teams battle for position at the bottom.
Conclusion
The Thunder and Cavs have put their stamp on the season. The top team heading into the playoffs doesn't always win the conference, but they have proven they are among the elite teams.
The Celtics, Knicks, and Bucks look like they are ready to contend in the East, while the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Lakers, and Timberwolves might have the goods in the West. There is no sure thing on either side, a good sign for competitive games and series.
You don't have to start paying attention quite yet, but the time is coming. At least now you know what to expect come playoff time, so you can maybe fake it until you get back into the groove.
