Fantasy Football Draft Analysis: Running Back ADP Trends

Yesterday I checked out the biggest movers among the quarterback position in fantasy football ADP over the last week; today we move along to perhaps the most volatile position in fantasy football: running back. As always, all ADP information is taken from our ADP Tool, which is the best place around to keep track of market trends in fantasy football. Here are the biggest risers and fallers among the top fantasy running backs over the last seven days:

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Fantasy Football ADP Risers: Running Backs

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (-6.18)

A rise of six spots in ADP may not sound like much, but it's actually a massive seven-day swing for a player with as early an ADP as Gibbs. A rookie out of Alabama with elite receiving chops, Gibbs was drafted 12th overall by Detroit in this year's draft and has seen plenty of hype recently, with some clips of him running routes in camp going semi-viral on the site formerly known as Twitter. While there are concerns over how many carries the 201-pound Gibbs will see while splitting time with veteran back David Montgomery, fantasy managers are salivating over his PPR potential. Normally, I'd say this is the kind of ADP rise not to buy into; it's easy to have a good rep or two in one-on-ones in camp, and we've seen plenty of backs get hyped up as huge receiving threats in preseason only for that role to never materialize in real action. But I'm buying into Gibbs' upside at his current RB17 ADP and would not shy away from riding the hype even if he continues to rise.  

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings (-3.44)

This one makes perfect sense, as every day that passes without the Vikings signing a running back is a good day for Alexander Mattison's fantasy stock. While there has been plenty of debate about Mattison's actual talent level, his current role as the de facto RB1 on the Vikings' offense is sure to produce some fantasy points. The former third-rounder has averaged an incredible 23.26 PPR points in his five career games with over 50% of offensive snaps played. This is a very small sample size of games for a four-year career, and many have pointed out that those five games were mostly against below-average defenses, but at the end of the day, points are points. If he can produce anything close to those numbers in his first full year as the Vikings' lead back, Mattison's current RB27 ADP will be a bargain. Expect Mattison to continue rising as we inch closer to Week 1 without the Vikings adding any competition in their RB room. 

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (-3.03)

Achane's rise over the last week is also easily explainable, as former Viking Dalvin Cook, who many were expecting to join Achane in Miami, instead signed with the Jets on Monday (more on him later). With Cook not landing in Miami, the third-round rookie with literal track-star speed is only competing with veterans Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert for touches. Lack of prototypical workhorse size at well under 200 pounds will keep Achane from rising too far up draft boards, but don't be surprised if he continues to climb from his current RB45 ADP. 

Fantasy Football ADP Fallers: Running Backs

Dalvin Cook, New York Jets (+4.7)

Here is the other side of the coin from Achane's rise. Had Cook done the expected thing and signed with Miami, he would have assuredly been the lead RB on one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Instead, he joins the Dolphins' AFC East rival in the Jets, where his fantasy outlook is murkier. The Jets' offense under Aaron Rodgers should be improved from their 29th-ranked 2022 scoring, but we haven't seen it yet. Even if the offense does click, there is no guarantee that Cook will maintain a lead role as sophomore stud Brece Hall returns to full health from his ACL injury. Cook has fallen to the RB23 in ADP, and I wouldn't be surprised if he falls out of the RB2 range entirely, especially with Hall returning to practice on Tuesday.

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks (+3.97)

Walker, who was at one point in this offseason being drafted as the RB8, now finds himself with an RB14 ADP and still trending in the wrong direction. The biggest hit to Walkers' stock came in the NFL Draft, when the Seahawks shocked the NFL world by selecting UCLA product Zach Charbonnet early in the second round. Walker's latest drop is likely also due to Charbonnet, who impressed in his preseason debut for the Seahawks last Thursday. It likely doesn't help that Walker himself was inactive for that game with a groin injury suffered early in camp. On the bright side, Walker has now returned to camp in Seattle. If he is fully cleared in time to appear in one of Seattle's upcoming preseason games, don't be surprised if his ADP jumps right back up.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (+3.52)

Relative to his second-round ADP, Taylor's drop of 3.52 slots may actually be the biggest of all the moves in this article. Where he was once a solid first-round pick (and last year's consensus first-overall pick), Taylor's fantasy value has taken shots from all sides. He has requested a trade, publicly fallen out with Colts owner Jim Irsay and is dealing with a mysterious back/ankle injury. With all that happening, it's no wonder that his ADP is falling. On the other hand, these things tend to resolve themselves by Week 1, so Taylor makes for an interesting high-risk, high-reward pick at his current lower price. Even putting aside all these issues, I personally don't love Taylor's fantasy outlook, but I certainly won't blame anyone swinging for the fences by snagging him in the second or even third round.