Fantasy Football ADP Report: Quarterback Draft Trends
As we inch closer to Week 1, fantasy football draft ADP is finally starting to crystallize into its final form. Thanks to news coming out of training camps across the country and every team participating in a preseason game, the fantasy community is getting answers to questions that have lingered all off-season, and the market is reacting accordingly. With that in mind, let's take a look at the biggest movers in fantasy football ADP among quarterbacks over the last week, using our very own ADP tool.
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Fantasy Football ADP Risers: Quarterbacks
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.19)
Pickett is the biggest total riser among even the top 30 QBs, as he has seen his ADP rise over four full slots, a large amount for just seven days with no breaking news that would have impacted his fantasy stock. Perhaps drafters were inspired by Pickett's preseason performance. He played just one drive against the Buccaneers, but made the most of it, completing six of his seven attempts for 70 yards and a score. At QB21, Pickett is being selected as a backend QB2 and will likely go undrafted in most 1-QB leagues, but is firmly on the radar in any Superflex or 2-QB format. To pay off that price, Pickett will have to show improvement from his rookie season, in which he threw just seven touchdowns in 12 starts, averaging an anemic 12.2 fantasy points per game. Drafters are clearly buying into a second-year leap from Pickett and the Steelers' offense, and perhaps his stellar preseason performance is a sign that they will be right.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (-4.17)
Geno has risen just barely less than Pickett over the last week, but his rise is perhaps more meaningful, given his ADP is over 50 slots higher. Unlike Pickett, Geno, along with the rest of the Seahawks' key offensive veterans, did not feature in their preseason game against the Vikings. Despite his rise, Geno still finds himself firmly outside the top 12 quarterbacks by ADP, currently being selected as the QB15. At first glance, this seems like a bargain price for Smith, who finished last year as the fantasy QB5 and saw his situation only improve over the offseason with the addition of first-round rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. On the other hand, the fantasy QB position is more stacked than ever, and Smith lacks the truly elite upside provided by dual-threat QBs and the very top tier of passers. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Smith continue to rise as draft season moves on and drafters are drawn to his safe output.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
With this rise, Lawrence is further cementing himself in a tier of his own among QBs on fantasy draft boards. Currently the QB8, T-Law is being selected nearly a full round after the last of the top seven quarterbacks (Justin Fields), and nearly two rounds before the QB9 (Deshaun Watson). The hype surrounding his connection with new Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley continues to grow as buzz emits from Jacksonville, so don't be surprised if Lawrence keeps moving up draft boards.
Fantasy Football ADP Fallers: Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (+2.8)
Heading to the other side of the spectrum, Wilson is the biggest ADP faller among the top 24 QBs over the last week. Following an abysmal debut with the Broncos last season, many were predicting Wilson to have a bounce-back season thanks to the arrival of new head coach Sean Payton. However, Wilson's 2023 preseason debut against the Cardinals didn't exactly scream "revitalized offense." He finished with a decent line of seven completions on 13 attempts for 93 yards and a score, but played into the second quarter and often faced heavy pressure, taking heat from both the Cardinals' defense and Twitter. He is currently just ahead of Jared Goff as the QB17, but don't be surprised if Wilson continues to slide unless he and the Broncos' offense look better in Week 2 of the preseason.
?s=20Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (+2.75)
Love just barely qualifies for this list as the QB24 by ADP, which means his 2.75-spot slide isn't too dramatic. With that said, this particular drop is just indicative of a larger trend: Our ADP graph for Love shows that he has been steadily falling for nearly two months, dropping over 60 spots in ADP since the beginning of June. Love may slightly just have been caught up in positional trends, as many of the borderline QB2s around him have also fallen over that span, but his fall is still an outlier. If even a solid first preseason outing didn't buck the trend, Love might continue to fall as Week 1 approaches.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (+1.86)
If I had been told that Rodgers would make this list, I would have assumed it would be on the other side, that he would benefit from the "Hard Knocks bump" and move up in ADP. Instead, Rodgers is sliding slightly, which is made even stranger by the fact that he is alone in doing so among signal-callers in his range: Rodgers is the QB14 in ADP and has fallen while quarterbacks 11, 12, 13, 15 and 16 have all risen over the past week. Perhaps drafters are worried that the addition of Dalvin Cook signals a more run-heavy approach will be present in New York. I don't think the addition of Cook will have a real negative impact on Rodgers' fantasy value, so this may be an opportunity to buy the dip if you were in on Rodgers at his previous price.
