Tank Bigsby Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Bigsby in Fantasy This Year?
Where even the best players at other positions usually take some time to adjust to the NFL, rookie running backs historically have been able to hit the ground running (no pun intended), with many becoming fantasy superstars right out of the gate. 2022 was no exception, with rookie backs like Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Allgeier, Brian Robinson and Dameon Pierce all making a fantasy impact at some point during the season.
Heading into 2023, we have another loaded class full of talented rookie running backs. But who will make a fantasy impact in their first year in the NFL? First-round selections like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are obvious candidates, but Tank Bigsby, a third-round selection by the Jaguars out of Auburn, is a more under-the-radar player who has caught the eye of fantasy managers. Let's take a look at realistic expectations for the man they call Tank, and break down whether he is a good pick at ADP.
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Tank Bigsby's 2023 Fantasy Projection
The biggest question you should ask when looking to predict a player's fantasy production, especially at running back, is simple: What is their workload expected to look like? Talented backs can make the most of every touch, but nothing beats raw volume when it comes to projecting fantasy points.
Unfortunately, Bigsby's path to volume isn't the clearest. He joins a backfield already featuring Travis Etienne, a 2020 first-round pick who posted over 1,400 yards from scrimmage last year.
But Etienne isn't as big a roadblock to Bigsby's fantasy relevance as you might think. While he did dominate the Jaguars' backfield last year, there were indications that that wasn't the first choice of head coach Doug Pederson and his staff. Through the first six weeks of the season, Etienne was actually out-carried by fellow RB James Robinson, 81 to 54.
Robinson, coming off an Achilles injury, was largely ineffective and eventually cut by the Jaguars, leaving Etienne to dominate a backfield with essentially no competition. But if their early-season usage of Robinson is any indication, the Jaguars would prefer to use a committee approach in their backfield if possible.
Given he will be working behind Etienne, the question is what role Bigsby will fill. Excitingly for fantasy managers, there is a chance Bigsby will secure the majority of goal-line work on what should be a productive Jaguars offense.
Etienne struggled with goal-line work in 2022, converting just three of his 13 carries inside the five into touchdowns for the third-lowest success rate among 22 players with at least 10 such carries. Bigsby is listed as five pounds lighter than Etienne, but runs with more power ... plus his name is Tank. Don't be surprised if he gets the first shot at punching in TDs in Jacksonville.
On the other hand, Bigsby doesn't project to be much of a receiver as a rookie. Whether Etienne is an elite receiving option or just passable is a topic of hot debate, but between him and receiving specialist JaMycal Hasty, don't expect Bigsby to see many targets.
With all that in mind, a projection of around 120 carries for 500+ rushing yards, with a handful of rushing touchdowns and limited receiving work, is more than reasonable for the third-rounder. And, of course, his upside is much higher if Etienne misses any time with injury.
Should You Draft Tank Bigsby This Year?
Our ADP Tool shows that Bisgby is currently being drafted as the RB49, although he is trending upwards off the back of an electric preseason performance. This is the land of handcuffs and committee backs, where Bigsby is right at home. If you are drafting Bigsby at this spot, he is likely not expected to be a starter in your Week 1 lineup, which is certainly for the best given his limited projected weekly volume.
In deep leagues where Bigsby might be needed as a bye-week fill-in, I would pass on the rookie for another back with a clearer path to early-season volume. But in leagues where Bigsby's 144 ADP makes him nothing more than a bench dart throw, he is a very intriguing selection.
If the rookie can eventually carve out a role like Robinson's, which allowed him to average 11.2 Half-PPR points through six weeks in Jacksonville, drafting him in the double-digit rounds is a smash success. If Etienne misses time, Bigsby could be a league-winning pick.
