Fantasy Football Boom or Bust? Quarterbacks To Avoid: Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, and More
Finding sleepers is one of the most important things you can do in your fantasy football draft, but avoiding busts is an underrated important part of draft-day too.
Busts aren't just the guys who are going to end up sitting on waiver wires all year. They're also (and perhaps more importantly) the guys you end up drafting too high and not returning value. That's incredibly important because that quarterback you overdraft by three rounds is going to make you miss out on a sure-thing running back or wide receiver.
We should always be looking for value in drafts and spending draft picks on guys who will provide a negative return is one of the best ways to put yourself at a disadvantage right out of the gate.
With that, let's dig into a few of the quarterbacks who are being drafted too high right now.
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Fantasy Football Quarterbacks To Avoid
Justin Herbert
Most people have two top tiers of quarterbacks on their draft boards. Tier 1 is the God Tier with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen. Tier 2 usually includes some order of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Justin Herbert. So that’s your top-8 right there.
However, only one of those quarterbacks didn’t finish in the top-10 last year (injuries aside for Lamar Jackson): Justin Herbert.
Don’t get me wrong – I really like Herbert. But I’m not sure he’s at top-8 quarterback level just yet. He returns with more or less the same roster of weapons for 2023, so we’re really hitching his jump into the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks to either new coordinator Kellen Moore and/or a natural leap due to his progression as a player.
Could both happen? Absolutely. Do I want to spend a pick in the first four or five rounds on a player who put up more than 20 fantasy points just three times in 2022? Personally, I’d rather just wait and take a flier on someone like Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Richardson, or Kirk Cousins later in my draft.
Deshaun Watson
I fully understand Watson’s upside. He was a very good fantasy quarterback. But that was also a full three seasons ago! Moral issues aside (of which there are many), Watson’s current draft position is entirely too high for me to take the plunge on him.
He’s being drafted right after the aforementioned top-8, which means people are valuing him as if he’s going to just step into his stats from three (or more) years ago. While Watson has the talent to do that, he’s also playing in a run-first option with a limited amount of weapons outside of Amari Cooper (who also isn’t exactly Justin Jefferson or Travis Kelce).
I expect Watson to be better than he was last year when he only threw for 200-plus yards in two of five games, but I’d also much rather wait for one of the aforementioned players like Rodgers, Richardson, etc.
Daniel Jones
Danny Dimes got himself paid with a top-10 fantasy season last year, but he also only threw for 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns. While he made up for that deficiency in his game by limiting turnovers (for the first time in his career) and adding 708 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, those numbers are all extreme outliers in his career.
Could the addition of head coach Brian Daboll have changed his trajectory last year to the point where he’ll repeat his rushing prowess and limit his mistakes in 2023? Potentially. But Jones is being drafted as a QB1 (12th currently) in drafts, so you’re not leaving yourself much room for upside.
He was valuable last year when he was being drafted as QB22 and finished as QB9, but there isn’t much value in drafting a guy at QB12 when his upside (at most) is something like QB8 – and frankly, his floor is a lot lower and more worrisome.
Tua Tagovailoa
I don’t want to get into predicting injuries (especially when it’s something as horrible as concussions), but we’d all be crazy if we just ignore what happened to Tua last year.
He was being mentioned as an MVP-candidate due to his play with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Mike McDaniel’s offense, but concussions side-tracked his season and could still side-track his career. So that’s a HUGE worry point for me that I just don’t want to sign up for in 2023. It’s only going to take one hit to force Tua out of our fantasy lineups, and like with Daniel Jones, that’s just way too big of a risk to take on a guy you’ll have to take as a top-12 QB (currently QB11 in most drafts).
Tua also doesn’t provide a ton of upside as he’s not a rushing threat and also doesn’t possess a huge arm that is capable of putting up massive 400-plus yard games. You’re more or less paying for his upside in drafts, and I’d much rather spend my draft capital elsewhere.
Russell Wilson
Broncos Country was most definitely not riding when it came to Russell Wilson last season. The 34-year-old had an awful season, so I’m not sure things can get worse. But I’m also not sure they’ll get much better either.
New head coach Sean Payton should help things (as should the return of running back Javonte Williams), but Tim Patrick is out for the year and Jerry Jeudy may miss a few weeks of the regular season so it’s not like Wilson is going to have any more pass-catching weapons than he did last year.
While Wilson finished the year strong, he still only finished as QB16 on the year. He’s being drafted at QB18 right now so it’s not like you have to reach for him. But I feel much more comfortable taking Mr. Unlimited as my backup fantasy quarterback than I do taking him as my starter.
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