Fantasy Football Boom or Bust? Running Backs To Avoid: Najee Harris, Breece Hall, and More!

Finding sleepers is one of the most important things you can do in your fantasy football draft, but avoiding busts is an underrated important part of draft-day too.

Busts aren't just the guys who are going to end up sitting on waiver wires all year. They're also (and perhaps more importantly) the guys you end up drafting too high and not returning value. That's incredibly important because that quarterback you overdraft by three rounds is going to make you miss out on a sure-thing running back or wide receiver. 

We should always be looking for value in drafts and spending draft picks on guys who will provide a negative return is one of the best ways to put yourself at a disadvantage right out of the gate.

With quarterback busts already covered, let's dig into a few of the running backs who are being drafted too high right now.

Get ready for draft season! Practice Mock Drafts, check out ADPs, grab our fantasy football rankings, and get advice for trades with our trade analyzer.

Fantasy Football Running Backs To Avoid

Najee Harris

If you told me where a player was selected in the NFL Draft didn't matter to teams, I'd tell you that Najee Harris was going to be part of a running back-by-committee situation for the Steelers this year. Is that extreme? Maybe. But between Harris' ineffectiveness during his short NFL career and the emergence of Jaylen Warren, the arrow isn't exactly pointing up for the third-year player. 

And that's awful news for a player who is being taken as an RB1 in 12-team fantasy leagues (currently the 12th running back being selected). Yes, Harris finished as RB14 in PPR leagues last year. However, Harris saw his touches, targets, and total yards drop last year.

The silver lining here is that he leads the NFL in touches over the past two seasons with 694, but we're also banking on increased productivity at his current draft spot and Jaylen Warren has looked really good in the lead-up to the regular season so the Steelers may end up cutting into Harris' touches again this year.

With players like Rhamondre Stevenson and Travis Etienne being selected right around Harris, and other players like Kenneth Walker and Rachaad White going lower than him, I'd rather save my draft capital and not overpay for Harris.

Breece Hall

Hall was an absolute stud before he got hurt last year and would easily be a top-10 running back this year in an alternate timeline.

However, he did get hurt last year. And the Jets also just signed Dalvin Cook. So we're not living in that alternate timeline.

The reality here is that the second-year player is coming off an ACL tear, sharing a backfield with a previous top-10 fantasy running back, and is currently being selected as a top-15 fantasy running back. That's just way too rich in terms of the potential floor.

There's a TON of upside for Hall later in the season, but you have to get to later in the season first and taking him as your RB1 or RB2 will severely hamstring your chances of getting to "later in the season" in a manner where your fantasy matchups matter.

I don't mind taking a flier on Hall if he slips, but he's just way too risky to draft where he's currently being drafted.

Dameon Pierce

Pierce was a surprise rookie performer last season in finishing as an RB2 in PPR, but he also wasn't as great as most probably remember him being toward the middle part of the season.

While Pierce had an amazing stretch of games between Weeks 3 and 7, he never scored more than 14 fantasy points otherwise before missing the last four games of the year due to an ankle injury.

Why can't he repeat that again? Well, he could, but the Texans also brought in Devin Singletary so Peirce won't have a chokehold on the Houston backfield like he did last year. 

I don't mind drafting Pierce at all, but I very much mind drafting Pierce as a top-20 running back -- which is where he's currently being drafted. Unless Singletary gets hurt, you're just not leaving any room for value.

I'd much rather take a swing on guys like Javonte Williams, Isiah Pacheco, or Khalil Herbert later on. 

James Cook

Similar to Pierce, I'd love Cook more if his team hadn't made some offseason moves. However, the Bills brought in Damien Harris and there's nothing we can do about that.

Cook looked good in flashes last year, but he also never carried the ball more than 14 times in a game and never caught more than six balls in a game.

I'd expect him to see both of those numbers jump this year, but I'd also argue he's third for goal line carries for the Bills( behind both Harris and quarterback Josh Allen) so his upside is a bit limited there.

While Cook should be a solid flex play in PPR leagues, he's currently being drafted as a top-25 running back (so more like a low-end RB2). That might very well be where he ends up, but you're drafting him at the top of his potential value if you do that.

I'm fine drafting Cook if he falls a bit, but I just don't see RB1 upside here so just know what you're signing yourself up for if you choose to draft him.

J.K. Dobbins

If you could guarantee me that Dobbins will stay healthy all year, I'll jump in on him as an RB2 and draft him as a top-20 running back (which is where he is being drafted).

However, he's only played 23 games over the past two years -- including just eight last year. That's a huge question mark for a guy being drafted so early.

He also doesn't bring much as a receiver (which dings him in PPR leagues) and the Ravens are theoretically moving to more of a passing attack with Greg Roman no longer calling plays. 

I'm fine with having Dobbins as a depth piece, but he has way too many question marks (and too much of a limited upside) for me to feel good about taking him where he's being drafted. I'd much rather take Rachaad White, Javonte Williams, D'Andre Swift, or Isiah Pacheco multiple rounds later.

Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!