Packers Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook: Aaron Jones vs. AJ Dillon

The Green Bay Packers head into the 2023 season with a pretty well-known plan for its backfield. Aaron Jones will serve as the lead back, with AJ Dillon backing him up. 

Both running backs have shown they can be valuable fantasy assets, and that’s backed up in our ADP tool, with Jones coming in 16th among RBs and Dillon 33rd. Will Jones be the clear workhorse in 2023? Will Dillon vulture some touchdowns away? Will the two split the touches and produce on a similar level? Let’s dive into things.

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Aaron Jones Fantasy Football Outlook

Jones has been one of the more consistent backs in the league over the past few seasons, amassing 700+ rushing yards in five straight seasons, including three over 1,000 yards. He’s also been a threat in the passing game, with four straight seasons of 350+ receiving yards and anywhere from 47-59 receptions.

While his yardage totals have been consistent year to year, his touchdown production has varied wildly, which is likely part of the reason he’s being drafted behind players with not nearly as strong a track record. 

After a 2019 season in which he scored 19 total touchdowns, the three seasons that have followed have not been nearly as good. He hit double-digit touchdowns in 2020 (11) and 2021 (10) before a seven-touchdown performance in 2022. Last season’s touchdown output is troubling as it came in a season where he played the most games in his six-year career. Another downfall in 2022 was the five fumbles he had, a career-high.

He was still averaging 5.3 yards per rush, which bumped up his career average to 5.1. Despite the production per rush, Jones only averaged 12.5 carries a contest, while his career high was 14.8 attempts per game in 2019.

Jones enters the season as the lead back on the team, and with the team transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love at quarterback, there’s definitely some upside to Jones and the number of touches he should get in the new-look offense. With two years remaining on Jones' contract extension as he approaches 30 years old, the Packers could look to split the workload in the backfield to prolong his career in Green Bay, or turn him into a true workhorse for the first time in his career. That might be determined by how the year starts and how Love fares as the full-time starter.

AJ Dillon Fantasy Football Outlook

Dillon has shown he could potentially be a lead back in the NFL over his past two seasons, with 750+ rushing yards each year. He scored five times in 2021 and seven times in 2022. 

Dillon isn’t quite the receiving threat Jones is, with a combined 62 catches, 519 receiving yards, and two scores over the last two years. Those numbers still have Dillon averaging 1,046 total yards and seven total touchdowns, which are strong numbers for a non-starter.

Dillon, known for being a big, powerful back, actually finished with fewer broken tackles (13 to six) than Jones. in 2022 Dillon’s yards after contact per attempt also trailed Jones (2.2 to 1.7). That makes the upcoming season one to watch closely, as Dillon is an unrestricted free agent after the season is up.

One might expect the Packers to try and test Dillon to see how he can produce with a bigger workload, with how he fares determining if the organization locks him up for a few more years, or looks in another direction. That could also mean some extra looks in the passing game.

Who Should You Draft?

There are a lot of question marks surrounding the Packers and what their offense might look like in 2023, and the running backs and their usage are certainly included in that discussion. Jones is the back who will lead the team in touches and is the Packers’ back you should draft, but given how both players have produced over the past couple of seasons in an offense that was more pass-centric than the Packers project to be in 2023, I think both backs give you some value for where their ADP sits. I wouldn’t suggest counting on those two guys to power you to a title, but if either guy falls to you and you are looking for some depth at the position, both are going to help you out.

Even a slight bump in usage could easily bump Jones into the top 10 fantasy backs in the league, which isn’t easy to find in the third round of drafts. Dillon is a solid option as a third or fourth back or flex play each week, with some upside of outperforming starters on several other teams. Their added involvement in the passing game is a bonus.

Many fantasy owners dislike handcuffing their starters, as it takes away a roster spot for someone who might be much more likely to contribute to their team. However, if you draft Jones in the third or fourth round and have the chance to snag Dillon in the seventh or eighth, it wouldn’t be your typical handcuff situation, given the team’s track record of feeding both backs and seeing as the Packers’ offense will now likely have a greater focus on the run. Taking both guys is also more viable because the team lacks a solid third option at the position, meaning those two should get just about every touch. They might not always put up high-scoring outings, but their combined output is fairly consistent and could help anchor your team this season.