Broncos Running Back Fantasy Football Outlook: Javonte Williams vs. Samaje Perine
To say the Denver Broncos 2022 season didn’t go as planned is probably an understatement. With new Head Coach Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson in town to serve as quarterback, the Broncos had aspirations of winning the AFC West. Instead, the team sputtered to a 5-12 record and had the worst scoring offense in the entire league.
The Broncos finished in the bottom half of the league in rushing, due in part to the early-season injury to Javonte Williams. After the departures of Latavius Murray and Melvin Gordon, Williams will lead the team’s backfield, with the newly acquired Samaje Perine backing him up.
FantasySP’s ADP tool has Williams and Perine both among the top 45 backs in the league. What kind of production can be expected out of Williams coming off the injury? Does Williams’ injury make Perine a potential sleeper pick? Let’s talk about it.
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Javonte Williams Fantasy Football Outlook
Williams amassed 204 yards on the ground in his abbreviated 2022 season. He had caught 16 passes for 76 yards at that point. It was a tough break for a running back many expected to break out after a highly successful rookie season in which he totaled 1,219 scrimmage yards and seven total touchdowns.
Head Coach Sean Payton has noted several times that the run game is a priority for the Broncos in 2023, which certainly bodes well for Williams. If he can remain healthy, the Broncos’ offense should offer a nice balance of run and pass. Payton’s track record of teams with high-scoring offenses and with running back stars makes Williams a candidate to not only be the Comeback Player of the Year, but one of the best backs in the entire fantasy scene.
Williams is currently the 23rd running back off the board according to our charts, and going late in the fifth round. Even if he can’t return to his pre-injury level of play, there’s still a strong chance Williams finishes better than the 23rd-best back.
The injury he sustained is playing a big role in where he's being drafted, yet Breece Hall, another young back in a similar situation but with a more talented backup, is ranked 15th and going more than two rounds earlier than Williams. It's hard to imagine the Broncos' offense being as putrid as it was in 2022, and that alone should make Williams' name one you are circling, especially if you want to take another skill position earlier in the draft.
Samaje Perine Fantasy Football Outlook
Perine is another intriguing player to watch after coming off his best season in the NFL. Perine carried the rock 95 times for 395 yards and two scores. He caught 38 passes for 287 yards and four scores. Those numbers all came as a backup to Joe Mixon in Cincinnati, so another season of similar output seems attainable.
Many fantasy managers are thinking similar thoughts, as Perine is ranked as the 42nd back and is being drafted in the eighth round on average. While his production can come as a ball carrier or receiver, that’s a pretty solid pick to use on someone who likely isn’t going to be starting unless you are down a few players at other skill positions.
Another reason for concern is Perine joining a new team. It’s easy to expect similar production from a player when they switch teams, but there’s often a feeling-out process, and there are times when the fit just isn’t right.
Who Should You Draft?
While both Denver running backs will get their touches and put up some good numbers, the only one I’d consider at their current ADP is Williams. In fact, I’d make the argument that Williams should be getting picked a whole round or more earlier than he is. He’s a high-upside back who is likely your second or even third one drafted at the position, and there’s a chance he could end up as your top guy if things click in Denver.
Perine, on the other hand, seems to be getting drafted far earlier than his potential fantasy production would warrant. Should he drop a couple of rounds, then I’d consider drafting Perine, especially as a way to protect yourself against another Williams injury. If someone is willing to take Perine in the eighth round, there are plenty of other No. 2 backs in the league that will be available much later on that should offer just as much, or more, production. Perine is a back you take late in the draft as a flier, not in a round that you should be filling out your starting lineup with.
