Fantasy Football Week 1 Start Decision: David Montgomery or Raheem Mostert
Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and fantasy owners are already having to make tough decisions when it comes to picking which players should start. FantasySP has an entire list of trending decisions available on its “Who Should I Start” fantasy tool, and the top one on the list before the league’s first game is a running back debate between Detroit Lions’ Montgomery and Miami Dolphins’ Mostert.
Both players are projected to produce similar statlines and a decision is needed soon, as Montgomery and the Lions are part of the Thursday night matchup. So should you be starting Montgomery, Mostert, or both? Let’s dive into things.
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Starting David Montgomery over Raheem Mostert?
Montgomery opens the season against the reigning Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs in KC. The Chiefs had the eighth-least rushing yards allowed a season ago, although some of that had to do with opposing teams needing to pass to try and rally from deficits. The Chiefs’ 4.4-yard per carry figure last year was about in the middle of the league. Kansas City allowed just 10 rushing scores all season, tied for fifth fewest in the league.
Kansas City ranked near the middle of the league last season in passing yards allowed. The Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns.
Montgomery is entering his first season with the Liosn and is listed as the team’s starter despite them drafting Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Even with KC coming off a season in which they struggled to defend the pass, I expect Detroit to try and control the ball, which is usually how teams can beat Patrick Mahomes and that stellar offense. Any KC home game is a hostile environment for opponents, and that should be especially true on Thursday as the team gets honored for its Super Bowl. The best way to calm the fans down a bit will be to run the ball plenty, so I expect a lot of Montgomery and Gibbs.
Another reason I expect the Lions to really feature the run is because Chiefs’ star defensive lineman Chris Jones isn’t expected to play as he waits for a contract extension. Without the big man in the middle, running lanes should be available for the Lions’ running game.
Starting Raheem Mostert over David Montgomery?
Mostert and the Dolphins begin the season on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday afternoon. Mostert is heading into his second season with Miami and coming off arguably his best year as a pro. He finished with 1,093 total yards and five touchdowns, rushing for nearly 900 yards and going for an additional 200 as a receiver.
The Chargers were one of the worst teams in the league in 2022 when it came to defending the run, allowing 2,478 yards. Opponents 5.4-yard per carry average was worst in the league, while their 17 rushing touchdowns allowed was in the bottom third.
Mostert did not top 20 carries in a game with the Phins a season ago, but he got at least five totes in each game and finished with 50 or more yards in eight contests. When Miami and Los Angeles battled in week 12 of the 2022 season, Mostert was held relatively in check, with just 37 yards on 11 rushing attempts. He caught one pass for seven yards.
Mostert experienced mixed results when Miami earned wins, with double-digit carries in half of the team’s eight wins. His two highest rushing totals came in Dolphins’ losses. The team lost four of the six games in which Mostert had over 11 carries.
Unlike Montgomery not likely having to go up against a key member of the opposing defense, Mostert and the Dolphins’ offense appears on track to face an almost entirely healthy Chargers’ defense.
One thing that works in the favor of Mostert fantasy owners is that backup running backs De’Von Achane and Salvon Ahmed are both on the injury report. Both practiced in full on Wednesday, but a heavier workload could go Mostert’s way in week 1 to avoid too much wear and tear on the other two.
Final Start Decision Between Montgomery vs Mostert
According to our Start/Sit tool, fantasy owners are starting Montgomery over Mostert about 37% of the time, while Mostert is starting over Montgomery about 14% of the time.
About 20% of owners are avoiding picking between the two backs and instead are starting both.
Montgomery is the Recommended Start
I like the decision most fantasy owners are making in starting Montgomery over Mostert. I would also go that route.
Even though Montgomery is more likely to split touches with another back, I think he’s the better play. I like Montgomery to receive more carries than his projection, and should be able to go over his rushing yard total too. If he’s able to haul in a couple passes, you might not even need a touchdown to reach a double-digit scoring output.
The inconsistency the Dolphins had in giving Mostert touches in 2022 is just too much of a wild card for me. However, if I had both players on my roster, I would not mind tossing Mostert into my flex spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he outproduces his score projection and I think he’s the most likely back on the team to score. That might be his only way to reach double digit points though.
