Why D.J. Moore May Not Live up to the Fantasy Hype

D.J. Moore has been a star receiver for the Carolina Panthers since his second season in 2019.  The team traded him to Chicago this offseason as they moved up to the #1 pick, and Moore will be entering a new offensive style.

Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool. 

A few facts:

• Moore has been the top wide receiver on his team in terms of yardage every year of his career
• He had over 1,150 yards every year from 2019-2021
• His career high of seven touchdowns was set last year
• Moore has carried the ball about eight times per year in his career and averaged over 70 yards per season

Those are all great statistics in terms of fantasy projection, and it would be easy to make a case for Moore being a top player at the position again this year.  I am here, however, to attempt to sway you in the other direction.

Moore Lacks Target Opportunities

Moore is a very good receiver and would be an asset to any team in the league, but he’s going to a team that threw the ball the least number of times last season, and it wasn’t even close.  The Bears’ 22.2 pass attempts per game were over 9% less than the next team (Atlanta, with 24.4 pass attempts per game).  I looked back through 2015, and no team attempted less passes per game than the Bears did in 2022 (or the Falcons, for that matter; keep that in mind with Drake London and Kyle Pitts).

Here are the Panthers' rankings in pass attempts in Moore's five seasons along with his receptions and yards:

 

Year	Attempts Per Game	League Rank	Receptions	Yards
2018	35.2	15th	55	788
2019	39.6	2nd	87	1,175
2020	34.4	22nd	66	1,193
2021	35.2	14th	93	1,157
2022	26.9	29th	63	888

 

Moore had a good rookie season in 2018, but he broke out in his second year, nearing 90 catches and 1,200 yards.  Moore stayed over 1,100 yards for the next two seasons before dropping below 900 last season.  The Panthers had bad quarterback play in 2022, but Moore hasn't had an above-average quarterback in his whole career.  Cam Newton's last season as Carolina's main starter was 2018, then they had names like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Teddy Bridgewater throwing him the ball.  Bridgewater is a good quarterback, but Moore hasn't ever had a passer that can raise his level of play.

So why the drop in yards in 2022?  Carolina threw the ball at or above a league-average level every season from 2018-2021 (kind of).  They were ranked 22nd in 2020, but the 34.4 attempts were only one less than 2018 and 2021 when they were right at the middle of the league.  There was a huge drop in 2022, as Carolina threw the ball at the fourth-lowest rate in the league, almost 13(!) passes less than in 2019.

Moore's receptions and yards dropped sharply.  He lost 30 receptions (over 32%) and 269 yards (over 23%) from 2021 as the team's attempts fell by 23.6%.  Moore played every game in both 2021 and 2022.  Again, the Bears threw the ball only 22.2 times per game last season, almost five less passes per game.  This could be a season-long problem for Moore, and he's a player I was passing on in fantasy drafts.

He did have a drop in receptions in 2020 but still managed to put up the most yards of his career.  You might think he can repeat that feat, but Moore averaged 18.1 yards per catch that season.  His average in his other seasons combined is around 13.5 yards per catch, hitting a peak of 14.3.  That 2020 average is an outlier and unlikely to occur again this season.

Fields has a good chance to improve coming into his third season, and he might develop into a great passer eventually.  What we've seen, though, is that he's a phenomenal runner (who is a fantasy starter every week) who struggles to throw accurately on a consistent basis.  Darnell Mooney led Bears' wide receivers in receptions and yards last year with just 40 for 493 yards.  Moore is definitely better than Mooney, but those are staggeringly low numbers.

D.J. Moore Fantasy Outlook Week 1

Week 1 starts off with a bad matchup for Moore, as he will face a good Packers defense with a star cornerback in Jaire Alexander.  Fields has also struggled throwing the ball in all four of his games against Green Bay.

 

Game	Attempts-Completions	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions
2021 Week 6 vs GB	16-27	174	1	1
2021 Week 14 @ GB	18-33	224	2	2
2022 Week 2 @ GB	7-11	70	0	1
2022 Week 13 vs GB	20-25	254	0	2

 

There are a few OK numbers there, but the overall line is ugly: an average of about 15-24 for 180 yards with 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions.  A few other concerning notes on Fields:

• He didn't attempt 30 passes in any game last season, topping out at 28
• Fields only had one game in 2022 with over 10 yards per attempt, though, to be fair, it was Week 13 against Green Bay
• Only five times last season did Fields throw at least two touchdowns, and he only hit three once; he had four games with zero touchdowns.

The Packers allowed the 11th-least fantasy points and the 13th-least receiving yards to wide receivers last season.  Those ranks are near the middle but above league-average, and that means a lot more against a QB who struggles to throw.  As a cherry on top, the Packers allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards last season.

Moore is No Fantasy Stud

Moore is a talented player, but things don't look to be lining up for him this season.  I would sit him in Week 1 and see if anyone wants to trade for him; if this projection is right, his value will never be higher than it is now.  I don't think trading Moore will come back to bite you this season.

 

 

 

#dj-moore