Chiefs Fantasy Outlook in Week 2: Start Decisions for Patrick Mahomes, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice

The week 2 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars is one of the best games on tap for the week. The over/under of 51 points tells you everything you need to know about what people expect the game to be like.

The teams played two great contests in 2022. Kansas City prevailed with a 27-20 win in the Divisional Round of the playoffs in Kansas City on their way to winning the Super Bowl. The Chiefs also won 27-17 in Kansas City during the regular season. The Chiefs head to Jacksonville this week in search of their first win. The Jaguars are looking to move to 2-0.

Let’s take a look at some of the Kansas City stars that make this matchup so intriguing and figure out which ones you should be starting.

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Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Outlook

Mahomes opened his season by completing 21 of his 39 passes for 226 yards. He tossed two touchdowns and one interception. His numbers could have been a bit better had his receivers not dropped so many passes.

Mahomes was a star in both games the teams played last year. In a regular season, Mahomes threw for 331 yards, four touchdowns and one interception while completing 26 of his 35 passes. He completed 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and two scores in the playoff game, also missing time in that game with an ankle injury.

The big question going into the game is whether or not Mahomes will have his favorite passing target back, tight end Travis Kelce. His status will be one to monitor throughout the week and leading up to kickoff.

Running Back Isiah Pacheco Fantasy Outlook & More

The Chiefs didn’t run the ball that well in the season opener, with Mahomes netting half of the 90 total yards. Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire pretty much split carries, with Pacheco going for 23 yards on eight carries and Edwards-Helaire adding 22 yards on six totes. Edwards-Helaire added one catch for 7 yards, while Pacheco led the team with four grabs for 31 yards. 

Pacheco played in 31 offensive snaps, which was under 50% of the total snaps. Jerick McKinnon played 20 snaps and Edwards-Helaire had 14 snaps.

Pacheco was a big-time help to the Chiefs in their wins over Jacksonville last year, rushing for 82 yards on 16 carries in the regular season and adding 101 total yards on 13 touches in the playoff game. Edwards-Helaire barely played, with just four offensive snaps in the first game and then not logging a snap in the postseason game.

Wide Receiver Fantasy Outlook

As mentioned before, the Chiefs’ pass catchers really struggled in week 1. Rashee Rice and Kadarius Toney each had five targets in the opener, with Rice going for three catches, 29 yards and a score and Toney at one catch for 1 yard.

Justin Watson grabbed two of his four targets for 45 yards, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling had two catches on as many targets for 48 yards. Richie James and Justyn Ross each had one catch for 6 yards and Skyy Moore was shut out on three targets.

Missing Kelce in week 1 put a lot of pressure on the receiver room, and they failed to deliver in his absence. It could be another long day for the group if Kelce also misses week 2, but with him back on the field, targets could be sparse for the group.

In the regular season game against the Jags last year, MVS had 60 yards and a score and Toney had 57 yards and a score. In the postseason, Toney had 36 yards and MVS was held to 6. Watson had 12 yards in each game.

Tight End Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook

Minus Kelce in the opener, Noah Gray caught three passes for 31 yards and Blake Bell had two grabs, 12 yards and a touchdown. Gray played 57 snaps and Bell was on the field for 26 plays. Their production would obviously take a hit if Kelce plays.

Gray caught a touchdown while going for 20 yards on two grabs in the team’s regular season battle last year. He had a 27-yard reception in the postseason. Bell had a 4-yard catch in the playoffs.

Kelce led the Chiefs in receiving in both games against the Jaguars a year ago. In the regular season, he caught six passes for 81 yards and a score before going for 98 yards and two touchdowns while catching 14 of the 17 passes thrown his way in the playoffs.

Who Should I Start?

Fantasy stars will be all over the field for the Chiefs, Jaguars game, and you should be starting a few of the Chiefs.

Mahomes is the top-ranked quarterback in our week 2 projections. Mahomes is projected for 298 passing yards, 2.5 touchdowns and 1 interception while adding 38 yards on the ground. 

Don't overthink this. Mahomes should be starting this week, and every other week for that matter. If it's a high-scoring game like many expect, Mahomes could turn in one of those vintage performances that we are so accustomed to.

Pacheco is ranked 25th by our projections, with McKinnon 51st and Edwards-Helaire 55th. Given how Pacheco played in the team’s matchups last year, I think he’s a solid starter at flex and will outproduce his projections of 52 rushing yards and 13 receiving yards. The other two will be involved if they play, but I'd stay away from starting either.

Toney is Kansas City’s top-ranked receiver in the projections at 54th. Moore is 62nd, Valdes-Scantling 65th and Rice 73rd.

The Chiefs’ receiving room is hard to predict, especially if Kelce plays. I’d consider Toney or Rice as a flex player, but only if Kelce is out again.

Speaking of Kelce, he should be starting if he plays in any fashion. He’s ranked as the top player at the position and is projected at seven targets, 6.2 grabs, 72 yards and 0.6 touchdowns and could soar past those numbers given his team’s other pass-catching options. Gray and Bell I’d avoid, even if Kelce isn’t playing.