Start Dallas Goedert vs Hunter Henry | Who Should I Start Week 2

Week 2 is nearly here so let's tackle a burning start decision before tonight's game with the Philadelphia Eagles versus the Minnesota Vikings. Can Dallas Goedert redeem his Week 1 performance? Is Hunter Henry a reliable start at tight end? Let's dig into the numbers.

Week 1 itself is a good reason to start Hunter Henry over Dallas Goedert.  The lines:

• Henry: 5 receptions, 56 yards, 1 touchdown
• Goedert: 0 receptions, 0 yards, 1 target

A goose egg for Goedert; 0.0.  These players were facing each other Week 1, and, while last season's stats are an imperfect measure of 2023, Goedert would have seemed to have the better matchup, as the Eagles allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in 2022 and the Patriots the 11th-most.  Still, Henry had the far better game, and it's worth considering if that will be the case again in Week 2 and moving forward.

It's easy to overreact to one week, so let's make a case for both players then decide who is the better play this week, with Goedert suiting up Thursday night against the Vikings and Henry waiting until Sunday night against the Dolphins.

Tough start decision? We have you covered. Find out in depth stats, red zone opportunities, projections, breaking news, and crowdsourcing real fantasy owners faced with the same start/sit decision. Check out our Who Should I Start tool. 

The Case for Starting Dallas Goedert

Week 1 was ugly, but Goedert was drafted as a top-10 tight end in fantasy leagues (around sixth most often) while Henry wasn't drafted at all.  It's a big overreaction to say Henry is a better option after one game.  The last time Goedert was essentially shut out was Week 12 in 2021 (one catch for zero yards), and he responded with 105 yards and two touchdowns the next game.  Bad weeks happen, and we shouldn't forget everything we know because of the opening performance.

In three playoff games last year, Goedert had 16 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown; that's his previous three games played.  Goedert is fine, and he's still part of one of the best offenses from 2023.  The Patriots are a tough defense, and Goedert would seem to have a better outlook against a Minnesota team that gave up the second-most passing yards in the league last season.   When Philly walloped the Vikings in Week 2 last season, Goedert had five receptions on six targets for a team-high 82 yards.

Henry had the least receptions and yards of his career other than his rookie season in 2022, and his two touchdowns were a career-low.  That was despite playing all 17 games.  As a player who struggled with injuries early in his career, Henry has played every game the last two seasons but decreased in catches and yards in each of those years from the previous.  Maybe most damning for Henry, it took a league-high 54 passes from Mac Jones, eight more than any other quarterback, to put up his big Week 1 stat line.

 

The Case for Starting Hunter Henry

Henry was the top-scoring tight end in the NFL in Week 1.  Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews missed their games with injury, but Henry stands above all other players at his position after one week.  Weird weeks happen, but there's something to be said for a solid player coming out against a good defense and excelling to start the season.

I was up on Henry's backup Mike Gesicki as a player who could bounce back this season after a down year in 2022; before a 32-catch, 362-yard performance in 17 games last season, Gesicki averaged 59 catches for 685 yards and scored 13 total touchdowns from 2019-2021.  He went for 73 and 780 in 2021 before Miami overhauled it's scheme and phased out Gesicki as a receiver.

The reason I bring him up is because I thought Gesicki could be the top receiver on a team that doesn't really have a WR1.  JuJu Smith-Schuster has played the role before, but he hasn't put up back-to-back seasons of 50 catches or 600 yards since 2018.  Kendrick Bourne had a big Week 1 with 64 yards and two touchdowns, but that took 11 targets on Jones's 54 pass attempts.  Bourne has never had more than 55 catches or five touchdowns in a season, though he did hit 800 yards in 2021.

Maybe I had the right idea but the wrong player; Henry might be the most accomplished receiver on the team, and he would be a weekly fantasy starter if he is acting as the top option in the passing game.  He was one of six players to have at least six targets in Week 1 (Bourne led the team with his 11), so it will be interesting to see how the attempts are broken up when Jones throws a more reasonable number of passes.

Lastly, and the best reason I can think of, is that Miami has struggled against tight ends lately.  They gave up the eighth-most receiving yards and fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends in 2022, and the Dolphins allowed a touchdown to the Chargers' Donald Parham in Week 1.  Henry has one of the best matchups of Week 2 and a chance to repeat his big performance.

 

The Start Verdict Between Henry vs Goedert

I came into this exercise wanting to make a case for Henry as the player to go with.  I still do believe he can have a good week, but the evidence seems stronger for Goedert.  Fantasy SP ranks Goedert as the third-best tight end this week in both standard and PPR, while Henry is 15th in both formats.  I have to agree: my heart says Henry, but my mind says to start Dallas Goedert this week and expect him to bounce back.  Henry is a streaming option, and Goedert is a must-start.

As of the time of publication fantasy owners are overhemling picking Dallas Goedert as their prefered starter with 67% choosing him over Henry. If you want to see how this changes as the game gets closer jump over to the start decision and get last minute numbers.