Start Justin Fields vs Tua Tagovailoa vs Anthony Richardson | What Fantasy Quarterback to Start Week 2

We've seen Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, and Anthony Richardson all do great things in fantasy in their short careers.  Fields is one of the best running quarterbacks ever and put up over 1,100 rushing yards last year.  Tua now has four career games with at least 360 passing yards (with two over 400) after Sunday's performance.  Richardson looked like a QB in control, as the inexperienced rookie had 223 yards passing and ran for 40 and a touchdown.

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Week 1

Player	Att-Comp	Yards	TD-INT-Sacks	Rushing Yards	Rushing TD	Fantasy Points	Fantasy QB Rank
Tua Tagovialoa	28-45	466	3-1-0	5	0	27.14	1st
Anthony Richardson	24-37	223	1-1-4	40	1	20.92	4th
Justin Fields	24-37	216	1-1-4	59	0	14.54	16th

 

Tua was the top-scoring quarterback in Week 1 and put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers.  Tyreek Hill had 215 yards and is the most dangerous weapon in football right now.  Tua has the ability to go off any given week, as we've seen the last two seasons.  He didn't put up much for rushing (and usually won't), but he took no sacks, which is important for his health with past concussion scares and also a bonus if your league subtracts points for sacks.

Richardson was the fourth-highest scorer in his debut, a performance carried by his rushing.  This will be a common theme through the season.  Taking away his rushing touchdown would drop him to 14th, showing the importance of getting in the endzone, but Richardson has a chance to score with his legs every week.  He's close to a weekly starter already, and he'll have a chance to prove it in a tough matchup Week 2.

The Bears were expected to come into this season much improved, but Chicago was dominated by their biggest rivals in the Packers, and Fields had a hard time producing anything, with his rushing saving what would have been a disaster of a day.  Green Bay has a good defense and there will be better days ahead, but Week 1 showed Fields still has a long way to go as a passer.

 

Fields, Tagovailoa, Richardson Fantasy Breakdown Week 2

Each player matches up with a relatively tough defense this week, and expectations are about what they were in Week 1:

 

Player	Opponent	Projected Fantasy Points	Projected QB Rank
Justin Fields	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19.0	6th
Tua Tagovailoa	New England Patriots	17.9	10th
Anthony Richardson	Houston Texans	17.5	13th

 

The Case for Starting Justin Fields

The Bucs were about league-average in terms of fantasy points and rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks in 2022.  Kirk Cousins threw for 344 yards against Tampa Bay last week, second most behind Tagovailoa.  Without three turnovers, Cousins would have been the fourth-highest scoring quarterback of Week 1 (he was 10th).  Tampa will allow fantasy points to quarterbacks, and that's good news for a Fields bounceback.

Fields was the sixth-highest scoring quarterback in 2022, leading the league in QB rushing yards while finishing second in rushing touchdowns.  His 1,143 rushing yards were over 33% more than second place Lamar Jackson.  While he struggled to throw the ball in Week 1, he ran nine times for 59 yards.  It might not sound like a lot, but that's 6.6 yards per carry, a number higher than all but one player has averaged in a career.  His 7.14 yards per carry in 2022 are more than any player has ever averaged in a career (Michael Vick was at 7.0).  Fields is going to run the ball and produce yards.

Fields' ranking of sixth this week feels about right: he could have another disappointing showing against a tough defense, or he could be the top-scoring QB of Week 2.  Anyone who has Fields is starting him this week.

 

Downsides: Fields had an above-average 13 turnovers last season, and Tampa did just force three against the Vikings.  The Bucs downgraded at quarterback, but they still have stars in Vita Vea and Lavonte David, among others, across their defense.  They will not allow easy points and may cause a few turnovers.  They had a below-average 10 interceptions last year, but their 45 sacks were tied for 7th-most in the league, and Fields took four sacks in Week 1.

 

The Case for Starting Tua Tagovailoa

We've seen over the last two seasons that Tua and the Dolphins offense can blow up on any given week.  The Chargers allowed the seventh-least passing yards in the league last season, but Tua lit them up for a league-high 466, over 26% higher than second-place Cousins.  He scored 11% more fantasy points than any other quarterback in Week 1.  Hill is a threat to score any time he touches the ball; he's the Barry Sanders of receivers.  Jaylen Waddle as a second receiver is unfair to many other QBs in the league.

Coach Mike McDaniel is a disciple of Kyle Shanahan and has shown great playcalling prowess in his first season-plus.  He puts Tua and the playmakers in position to be successful on a weekly basis.

 

Downsides: Tagovailoa doesn't have the rushing skills of the other two players here, a fact that lowers his floor on days the passing game isn't clicking.  He had double-digit rushing yards just three times in 13 games last season while failing to hit that mark in Week 1.  The Patriots have a good defense, even if they did give up an above-average number of passing yards and fantasy points to quarterbacks last season.  They just held 2022 MVP-candidate Jalen Hurts to 170 yards and 37 rushing yards along with a 19th-place fantasy finish among QBs.  This matchup isn't inviting fireworks like Week 1 did.

 

The Case for Starting Anthony Richardson

I've talked about the value of running quarterbacks many times, and I pegged Richardson as an instant fantasy starter this season.  He delivered in Week 1 with a 20-point performance and fourth-place finish.  His passing stats were mediocre, but Richardson added 40 yards and a touchdown with his legs, 10 more points; that means nearly 48% of his fantasy production came on the ground.

It's easy to look at that as a negative, and it might be in some circles of NFL fans, but it's a great thing in fantasy.  Richardson's passing performances are likely to be inconsistent this year, but his rushing ability will help buoy his fantasy performance.  Richardson won't score a touchdown every week, but adding about five points to your score each week keeps him from bottoming out unless things really go awry.

He also made an instant connection with top receiver Michael Pittman, who had eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown.  I was down on Pittman and thought Richardson would struggle to throw, but they proved me wrong in Week 1.

 

Downsides: The Houston Texans allowed the least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in 2022 and held Lamar Jackson to 6.56 in Week 1.  The Houston offense struggled, and Jackson didn't always have to do a lot, but the Texans made everything hard for the star quarterback, building on last year's performance.

Richardson steps in as a similar player to Jackson who may struggle in the same way.  Richardson gained 15.2% of his total yards on the ground in Week 1, and Jackson was at 18.3%.  Though the Texans allowed a league-average number of rushing yards to quarterbacks last season, they faced the seventh-most attempts and gave up under 3.5 yards per carry to QBs.  Houston does not allow quarterbacks to go off on the ground against them.

 

The Start Verdict

Fields is an every-week starter at this point, and the other two aren't far behind.  All three have somewhat difficult matchups this week, but they all have the ability to put up big weeks anyway.  Tagovailoa has the best weapoin in football and the capability for big games like we saw in Week 1.  The Patriots are a tougher team, but don't bench Tua unless you have a great second option.

Richardson is the hardest determination here.  He is ranked 13th this week, right on the line of starter/non-starter, making the decision more difficult.  We know Richardson will have the ball in his hands, and that is a plus, but he is going against a tough defense with a hungry new coach, and I see things going poorly for the young quarterback.  There are worse options, and you might not have a better player on your roster, but Richardson is probably a "sit" in Week 2.  Daniel Jones against Arizona and Geno Smith against Detroit are two seemingly nicer matchups on paper, for comparable players.