Revisiting Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the NFL's South Divisions: Baker Mayfield, Alvin Kamara, Drake London, Trevor Lawrence and More
Evaluating preseason bold predictions for every team in the AFC and NFC South.
Bold predictions walk a fine line: We’re looking for something that pushes the boundaries of what a player or team can do while still being realistic enough to make sense. Making a prediction that the Jets are going to go 17-0 next year is bold, but no one would read that and run out to put money on their division odds.
With fantasy football bold predictions, it’s more about identifying players who are over or undervalued and choosing a stat or ranking that will open eyes. I made one bold fantasy football prediction for each team before the season started; you can find those articles linked below.
With no football this week, it’s a good time to go back and look at those predictions to see how they played out. Part of it is seeing how wrong I was (or right…or wrong), but the most important part is the lesson we can learn from each outcome.
Let’s look at the predictions I made for the AFC and NFC South. I’ll give you the reason behind each prognostication, how it went, and the lesson we can learn. Fantasy scores and rankings are from FantasyPros and will be referenced often.
You can find the evaluations of the East and North divisions at those respective links.
AFC South
Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud will finish outside the top 10 fantasy QBs
Reason: Stroud had a phenomenal rookie season, but he was due for regression after averaging 8.2 yards per attempt and throwing 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
Stroud was QB11 in 2023, so if he were going to regress, that would likely keep him out of the top 10. He ended up as QB18 in 2024 and will likely be taken at the end of drafts in 2025 after being close to a top-five fantasy QB pick this season.
The addition of Stefon Diggs led some to expect Stroud to take another jump, building upon that strong first season. While offseason moves will help drive our expectations next year, his most likely outcome is to end up somewhere between this season and last season, which would make him a fine quarterback and a streamer in fantasy.
Lesson: Some things are unsustainable, like throwing so few interceptions. That’s an enormous red flag for Justin Herbert, who threw just three picks during the season but then had four against Houston in the first round of the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson will be a top-five QB pick in fantasy drafts next year
Reason: After a strong start, he only played a handful of games in 2023 due to injury, and Richardson was still a top-five quarterback draft pick in many leagues.
Running quarterbacks score more fantasy points than those who don’t run. I was expecting Richardson to come out and put on a full season of the flashes from his rookie year. Well, he did at times, but there were too many starts and stops, and he finished as QB25 while missing six full games and parts of others.
That’s not going to put him on the top-five radar in 2025. We’re probably looking at Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, and Jalen Hurts as four of the top five, with Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and others also in the battle. If Richardson falls out of the top 10, I’m going to be looking at him as a big-time value play.
Lesson: Potential is potential, but until a guy shows it, there’s always a chance he’s not ready (or doesn’t have it).
Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence will be a top-10 fantasy quarterback
Reason: Things had turned too negatively toward the former top overall pick, and he was going undrafted or late in fantasy drafts. Lawrence was entering his third season under Doug Pederson, a coach who had success in the past.
Lawrence missed seven full games and most of an eighth, ending his chances of reaching the fantasy starter level. Looking just at Weeks 1-9, the games in which he started and played most of the game, Lawrence was QB11. That’s only half of the season, and he hadn’t had his bye while other guys did, but Lawrence was in position to compete for the top 10.
He has mostly been a borderline fantasy starter in his career, dependent on the matchups for his upside. That’s likely to be the case again in 2025.
Lesson: Injuries often dictate who has a chance to make the top 10 at a position (or 20 in the case of RB and WR), and everyone except the top guys aren’t worth stressing over too much in your draft because luck and health are usually the most important factors.
Tennessee Titans: DeAndre Hopkins will be the best fantasy receiver for the Titans
Reason: Hopkins was a superstar in his prime and was still able to show flashes. Calvin Ridley, Hopkins’ biggest threat for this honor, is good but not great, leaving it open as to which receiver would score more.
Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs mid-season, so his hopes of leading Tennessee ended there. He and Ridley played seven games together to start the season: both players were outside the top 50 in both scoring formats, though Ridley was marginally better.
Hopkins never found great footing in Kansas City, making an impact but only as a marginal player. He finished the season with 610 total yards and five touchdowns (four for KC). Ridley topped 1,000 receiving yards with four touchdowns and ran for another 55 yards and a score on the ground.
Lesson: Age matters. Hopkins played the whole season at 32 years old, while Ridley turned 30 in December. That’s not the entire reason Ridley played better, but we’ve seen Hopkins lose a step, and it continued in 2024. Ridley was also the undisputed top target after the trade, while Hopkins was a role player in Kansas City.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London will be this year’s biggest fantasy disappointment (who doesn’t get injured)
Reason: London hadn’t finished among the top 30 receivers in standard or PPR in his first two seasons but was being touted as a top-10 player at his position.
London finished as WR6 in standard and WR5 in PPR, showing those who believed in him were right. The addition of Kirk Cousins meant probable better quarterback play, but I was skeptical that would mean a jump of 20 spots in the fantasy rankings. London showed that he has the talent to be a top-10 receiver, though, and he will be drafted as such next season.
Lesson: Talent is talent, and sometimes you just need someone who can unlock the best version of an individual player. Pay attention to Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers if their teams make big quarterback upgrades, as they both had over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards as rookies with poor QB play.
Carolina Panthers: Jonathon Brooks will finish outside the top 40 running backs
Reason: The first running back selected in the 2024 draft was coming off a major knee injury suffered late in 2023 and was expected to miss time recovering. His team was also loaded with veteran backs who could handle things while he worked his way back.
I like being right, but not when it’s like this. Brooks took his time coming back, a smart move given that his team wasn’t going anywhere, and he was only a rookie. Disaster struck in just his third game back, as Brooks began to run the ball outside on his first carry and went down without being touched, an alarming scene.
Sure enough, he tore the same ACL he had just repaired and will again face a long recovery. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he missed all of 2025.
Lesson: Injuries are unpredictable, and everyone recovers in a different way. Especially with young players, it’s best to err on the side of caution. Any player coming off a significant injury, especially on a losing team, should be drafted early with caution.
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara will finish 10 spots higher in PPR leagues than in standard
Reason: Kamara has always been a great pass-catching back, but he was extra productive there in 2023 with quarterback Derek Carr, catching 75 passes in only 13 games.
Kamara was RB15 in standard and RB9 in PPR. That’s not a difference of 10 spots, but it’s not that far off! When he ranks 15th at his lowest, there’s not a lot more room for him to jump. This was a strong prediction.
Lesson: Not many guys see huge differences in how they perform in standard versus PPR, but it’s worth knowing the guys who will have more value depending on your format. Expect more of the same from Kamara in 2025.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield will top his numbers from last season
Reason: A former top overall pick, Mayfield had a career year in 2023 and was returning to a very similar situation in which it made sense that he could grow.
- Mayfield’s 2023: 64.3% completion, 4,044 yards (7.1 per attempt), 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, QB10 in fantasy
- Mayfield’s 2024: 71.4% completion, 4,500 yards (7.9 per attempt), 41 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, QB4 in fantasy
There were more interceptions, but I’ll take that given his huge jumps in everything else. Even better for his fantasy production, Mayfield ran for 378 yards and three touchdowns after just 163 last year with one score; he ran the ball two LESS times than in 2023, showing much greater efficiency.
Mayfield will be drafted as a top-10 quarterback next season. I don’t expect him to finish as a top-five guy again, but he’s proven two years in a row that he’s a usable fantasy and real-life quarterback.
