Was Joshua Dobbs' Week 2 Performance a Fluke or Sustainable? A Fantasy Football Investigation

Joshua Dobbs was the fifth-highest-scoring quarterback of Week 2 (according to Fantasy Pros, which I will use for all fantasy points/rankings). He had 228 yards and a touchdown passing with no interceptions and no sacks against the New York Giants. Those numbers look pedestrian, but he added 41 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground to buoy his fantasy day.

The Giants have looked bad so far this season, even after a furious comeback to beat Arizona, but Dobbs having a top-five fantasy finish is something no one would have expected against any team. Dobbs was the lowest-scoring fantasy quarterback (of those who played a full set of snaps) in Week 1, so it’s not like there was an underlying performance waiting to explode.

Is this sustainable? Is Dobbs worth adding, even if he’s only a part-time starter? Let’s look at what Dobbs has done in his career so far, what he needs to do to be a fantasy-relevant player, and if he can reach those heights.

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Four Underwhelming Starts

I’m going to ignore the 17 pass attempts and six carries Dobbs had in 2018 and 2020 and focus on his two games last year with the Titans and the first two weeks of this season. Dobbs was brought into Tennessee late last season and started must-win games in Weeks 17 and 18; he was not set up for success. This season, he joined Arizona just a few weeks before the season and was thrust into the starting lineup of what looked like the worst team in football; again, Dobbs was not set up for success.

Unsurprisingly, his numbers have been mediocre to bad:

Game	Comp-Att	Passing Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Rush Attempts	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs
Week 2 2023	21-31	228	1	0	3	41	1
Week 1 2023	21-30	132	0	0	3	-3	0
Week 18 2022	20-29	179	1	1	5	32	0
Week 17 2022	20-39	232	1	1	3	12	0

 

In those four games, Dobbs averaged 20.5 completions on 32.25 attempts for 192.75 yards, wiht 0.75 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions. He also ran the ball an average of 3.5 times for 20.5 yards and 0.25 touchdowns. That's about 13 fantasy points per game; that would have ranked 19th in Week 1 and outside the top 25 in Week 2. All of Dobbs' performances are very similar, with only one real outlier this week.

How He Can Be Successful

The biggest chance for Dobbs to be fantasy-relevant is to use his legs on a regular basis. Rushing yards are 2.5 times more valuable than passing yards and rushing touchdowns are 1.5 times more valuable than passing touchdowns, so quarterbacks who run are the best fantasy assets at the position. I've written about this before. And the best way to have sustained rushing value is to have rushing volume.

Week 2 this season was a fantasy success for Dobbs because he ran for 41 yards and a touchdown, adding over 10 fantasy points. Subtracting his rushing touchdown would have dropped Dobbs from fifth overall to 18th in QB scoring, showing how important getting in the end zone with your legs can be in fantasy scoring.

To further illustrate the power of rushing production in fantasy, let's look at the top three scorers at QB in 2022. Jalen Hurts was the third-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback in 2022 despite missing two games. He was closer to number one (Patrick Mahomes) than he was to fifth overall in total fantasy points. Josh Allen was second in fantasy points at the position. Here's how the three stacked up:

Player	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	Rushing Touchdowns	Fantasy Points	Fantasy QB Ranking
Patrick Mahomes	5,250	41	4	428.4	1st
Josh Allen	4,283	35	7	412.2	2nd
Jalen Hurts	3,701	22	13	384.0	3rd

 

Mahomes had 18.4% more passing yards and 14.6% more passing touchdowns than Allen but only 3.8% more fantasy points. He had 29.5% more passing yards and 46.3% more passing touchdowns than Hurts but only 10.4% more fantasy points. Of course, there is more to fantasy scoring, but Mahomes nearly lapped his competition in passing but struggled to hold them off in total points because of their rushing volume. Hurts, in particular, made a huge impact with his legs, turning him into a fantasy no-brainer.

Can Dobbs Do It?

While the best way to rack up rushing stats is with attempts, Dobbs hasn't run a lot despite his athletic ability. His three carries per game project for 51 total which would have ranked 15th among quarterbacks last season, and numbers 15-19 all averaged more than the three carries Dobbs has so far.

In his two starts for Tennessee last year, Dobbs ran for 44 total yards, and he had -3 rushing yards in Week 1. He hasn’t shown a sustained ability to produce with his legs, so it’s hard to expect that moving forward. Seeing how important touchdowns are in fantasy scoring brings me down even more on Dobbs because of his lack of running opportunities. He may get in the end zone at times, but it looks likely to be rare based on what we've seen so far.

The next two weeks also bring brutal matchups for Dobbs, as the Cardinals will host the Cowboys and then travel to San Francisco. Those are two of the best defenses in the league, and it’s hard to imagine Dobbs doing anything but struggling to have good fantasy days. Their schedule will calm a bit moving forward, but it’s hard to trust anyone on an Arizona team that looks destined for a bottom-five record this season.

The Verdict: Joshua Dobbs Fantasy Football Outlook

We won't be hearing about Dobbs in fantasy talk for the next two weeks, and we will probably forget about this top-five performance by the end of the month. We saw that Dobbs does have some rushing ability, but his lack of volume and poor passing stats mean he isn't likely to be a fantasy option at any point this season. This performance is something to keep in mind if you are out of options and the Cardinals face a poor defense, but Dobbs is an emergency option at best.