How Much of FAAB Budget to Spend on Matt Breida | Fantasy Football Week 3 FAAB Insights
It seems early in the season for so many fantasy owners to be desperate for running back help, but some injuries have created gaping holes on many rosters.
Saquon Barkley owners are searching for a possible replacement should the New York Giants’ star miss a couple weeks. Coach Brian Daboll didn’t rule out Barkley for the team’s Thursday game against the San Francisco 49ers, but you’d rather be covered if he does miss the game, or a few.
Barkley has dealt with injuries during his NFL career, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been a special talent. This season, Barkley had accumulated 155 yards from scrimmage on 38 touches, and that was with the Giants getting blown out in week 1 and battling back from a 20-point deficit in week 2.
The Giants finished in the top 10 last season when it came to rushing attempts and were in the top five in rushing yards and yards per carry. In other words, the Giants are at their best when the running game is featured.
Now with Barkley banged up, people want to know how well Breida might fill in and if he’s worth adding to your roster and starting lineup until Barkley is back. Let’s discuss.
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Matt Breida Fantasy Football Outlook
Breida is in his second season with the Giants, so he is familiar with the system. He tallied 338 yards from scrimmage on 74 touches a season ago. So far this season, Breida had 11 scrimmage yards on four touches.
Even though those numbers aren’t all that great, his familiarity with the offense and given that Barkley should only miss a couple weeks at most gives Breida the most likely chance to fill in for Barkley.
I don’t think Breida will all of a sudden be tasked with taking on 25+ touches a game, but there’s reason to believe he could be successful while taking on 10-20 total touches. I think New York will rely a little more on the passing game, with quarterback Daniel Jones also running a bit more to make up for the loss of Barkley.
Over the next couple of weeks, the Giants take on some strong defenses, starting this Thursday against the 49ers. San Fran has allowed just 89 yards and one touchdown on 23 rushing attempts through the first two games.
The Giants then get a little extra preparation time before facing the Seattle Seahawks in week 4. Seattle has allowed 172 yards and four touchdowns on 63 attempts from opposing running backs so far.
New York then plays the Miami Dolphins in week 5. Miami has already allowed 271 yards and three touchdowns on 52 carries.
How Much FAAB Should You Spend on Matt Breida?
At the time of publication, Breida is fifth among skill players in Expected Waiver Interest (EWI). According to our charts, which can be found under the Fantasy Assistant tool, Breida is owned in just 4% of leagues currently, with that number jumping up near 40% in the near future.
Our charts are showing it will take 10% of your free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) in order to land the Giants’ backup. That's tied for the fourth-highest percentage, behind only Jerome Ford, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua.
With the Giants’ next game being Thursday, there isn’t much time to wait and see if Barkley will try and play or not, so you need to make a decision on Breida now.
With Barkley not being ruled out already, I think it’s possible he only misses this week’s game. He might not be 100% for a bit, but even if he was limited, he’s still likely going to dominate the snaps over Breida.
The 10% bid budget estimate is a decent amount of your season total for a guy who might only get serious playing time in a couple of contests, so I would make 10% my max bid on Breida. I’d feel more comfortable in the 5-7% range, and it might not even take that much after Daboll updated everyone on Barkley this morning.
Of course, if you do add Breida now, he might be worth holding on to in case Barkley continues to deal with injuries throughout the season. As the past season and change has shown though, not many backs outside Barkley get a lot of work in the Giants’ offense, so holding on to Bredia probably only makes sense if you have deep rosters.
Definitely don't break the bank on Breida, as he is just a short-term solution that will will be back on the waiver wire as soon as Barkley is back to playing.
