Is Nico Collins The Real Deal In Fantasy Football? Should You Add Him, Start Him?

Nico Collins is the sixth-highest scoring wide receiver in PPR scoring (seventh in Standard) through two weeks. This is a player who was drafted in the late rounds of deep leagues and not selected at all in shallower leagues. Players go under the radar to start the season all the time, but Collins has come out of nowhere to be a fantasy WR1 in his third season.

Should we have seen this coming? Obviously, Collins was underrated to start the season, but was there something standing out that pointed toward this early breakout? And, most importantly, can he continue to produce like a weekly starter in fantasy football?

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Nico Collins' 2022 Production

Collins had 37 receptions for 481 yards and two touchdowns in 10 games last season. Extrapolated to 17 games, that’s about 63-711-3.5, good for 92.1 Standard fantasy points. That would have made him WR47 last season, just behind Courtland Sutton and Diontae Johnson and ahead of Marquise Brown. That’s a usable player; all three of those players were drafted in essentially every league, some as high as the top 30 wide receivers.

As it was, Collins finished as the WR76, amongst Greg Dortch, Romeo Dobbs, and Chase Claypool. Everyone misses games and can have numbers made to look better, but we viewed Collins as a non-relevant fantasy receiver when we probably should have considered him a good bench player and matchup-dependent wide receiver.

It’s still a surprise that Collins has had the big start he has, but it’s a lot more reasonable from a position 30 spots higher in the rankings for a young receiver. We overlooked Collins too far, but that doesn’t fully explain his performance in 2023.

Nico Collins Fantasy Football Production

C.J. Stroud has thrown the ball 44 and 47 times in his first two games. We often hear of teams looking to ease their rookie quarterback into things, but Houston hasn’t had that luxury, as they have trailed both contests and had to throw to catch up. Collins has feasted on that volume.

Game	Pass Attempts	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
Week 1	44	11	6	80	0
Week 2	47	9	7	146	1

 

Before this season, Collins had been part of a game in which his team attempted 40 passes four times, and he topped out at five catches on 10 targets for 69 yards in a game featuring 49 Houston pass attempts. He averaged 3.3 catches on four targets for 34 yards in the other three games. I came into this exercise thinking Collins was just taking advantage of Houston's high volume, but his work in high-volume games over the previous two years wasn't anywhere close to 2023.

Collins only had 80 yards once in his career before this season (82 yards last year). He otherwise topped out at 69 and went over 50 yards only five times in 23 games (not counting a two-snap appearance in Week 2 of his rookie season) and scored just three total touchdowns. He has averaged less than 40 yards per game in contests with less than 40 pass attempts for his team.

It wasn't just an issue of Collins not producing in large-volume games; he wasn't producing in any games and wasn't often fantasy-relevant. This performance to start the season has been a huge jump in production and made him a player to consider weekly.

Nico Collins Rest of Season Fantasy Football Outlook

This is the question that really matters for fantasy owners. Collins didn't have big numbers in his first two seasons, never topping 40 catches or 500 yards. He averaged around 13 yards per catch over that time. Now, Collins is on pace for 110 catches, 1,921 yards, and nine touchdowns on the season, numbers that would put him in the upper echelon of receivers. More likely, he is going to slow down and fall somewhere in the middle of his past performance and scorching 2023 performance.

Quarterback play is a big factor for any receiver, and Collins was catching passes from below-average guys like Kyle Allen and Davis Mills during his first two years. Houston hopes that second-overall pick Stroud is the future, but what can we expect from him this season? Stroud's 6.9 yards per attempt are league average, but he has thrown the third most passes in the league for the fourth most completions (tied with Matthew Stafford) and the fourth most passing yards. Stroud is clearly an upgrade on the QBs he replaced, but the rookie will have to continue looking comfortable slinging the ball to keep up his counting stats.

That volume will be the biggest factor in whether Collins remains a weekly starter moving forward, but he must continue to produce on those chances. Collins had nine or 10 targets five times over 2021-22 and averaged 4.6 receptions and 51 yards with one total touchdown. That's not good enough. This season, he has received 11 and nine targets in his two games and averaged 6.5 receptions for 113 yards with the same one touchdown, adding two receptions and 82 yards per game to his previous averages.

I mentioned his 13-ish yards per catch in his first two seasons, but Collins is averaging 17.4 yards per catch in 2023. Again, this wasn't just a big jump in opportunities; Collins has been a better receiver on routes and with the ball in his hands. And, with a long catch of just 32 yards, he has been doing it consistently rather than relying on one or two huge plays.

The Verdict

I began this investigation wanting to make the case that Collins had severely overplayed his value because of huge volume and would be taking a big step back as the season progressed. After looking closer, however, there is evidence that Collins is playing better than he was in his first two seasons. A big part of that is quarterback play; Stroud was a logical choice to go first overall in this year's draft and was scooped up second by the Texans, so he clearly has something that shows he is an NFL-level quarterback, even in his first few games.

I don't think Stroud will throw nearly as much moving forward, and that will hurt his yardage output, but he should have a chance to play more under control without a large deficit each week. On the other hand, Houston is likely to be bad all year, and a lot of pass attempts might become a weekly occurrence for Stroud. Again, the most likely result is something in the middle: Stroud looks like he is more prepared to produce than first pick Bryce Young, but he also won't be putting up good Kirk Cousins performances weekly.

Collins will not continue to produce like a top-10 receiver, but he might regularly be someone in the 20-30 range and a good option most weeks, if not a weekly starter. He has proven he is better than the player we saw before the season, but he still has obstacles to overcome to be consistently great. It has only been two weeks, so let's not totally overreact, but it's reasonable to say Collins is a top-30 fantasy receiver at this point.

One last note: The question is often asked, "Should I trade x?" or "Should I trade for y?" When making this decision, you must consider how you value that player, and whether you can find someone who values him more (a player to trade away) or less (a player to trade for). It's reasonable to trade Collins now as his value may never be higher, but only do that if someone is valuing him as a WR1 and willing to give you big compensation. Picking up Khalil Herbert or some other middling back probably isn't worth sending out Collins, but if someone wants to send you Joe Mixon or Anthony Richardson to boost their receiving corps, that is a trade to pull the trigger on. Look at perceived value as much as regular value; I see Collins as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 and flex option.

 

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