Looking Ahead to Week 5 Byes and Potential Fill-Ins
Everyone looks at the waiver wire each week, but the most-prepared owners are already looking ahead to next week’s byes. Week 5 is the first with byes: the Cleveland Browns, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will take the week off.
There’s a lot of talent on those teams. Owners will be without the top quarterback and receiver of Week 3 and four unquestioned starting running backs. Week 6 (Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers) will steal much less fantasy production.
I am giving you good matchups for Week 5; that’s important to remember, as these are not necessarily players to put in your lineup this week. Most fantasy rosters have eight or nine starting slots and seven or eight bench spots. Looking ahead involves using those bench spots.
How to Juggle Your Bench
If you have enough good players that you need the rosters spots and can’t add a streamer, consider yourself lucky and don’t stress as much about your fill-ins; they are usually going to be a tight end, kicker, or defense and won’t be the most impactful part of your week.
Some owners prefer to use the beginning of their draft to secure guys like Travis Kelce and Jalen Hurts, and they are great players, but it often results in being shorter at running back and receiver. When you decide on your starters for the week, your roster usually includes a running back or wide receiver at the bottom who you would be happy to drop for a major waiver-wire pickup.
Let those spots work for your team’s future, as you plug holes ahead of time. For example, you might have Cam Akers on your roster hoping he can find a role in Minnesota, but Alexander Mattison had 125 total yards last week, and the lottery ticket Akers is less likely to hit.
If you have Justin Herbert and know you are without him Week 5, you can pick up your replacement on Saturday or Sunday before games start and not have to fight with other owners on waivers. And, if you need that spot at any point, you can drop that player as someone you weren’t immediately counting on. There’s not much of a downside.
I will list a player at each position other than kicker (with a few honorable mentions) who have a good chance of being free agents currently and have good matchups in Week 5. These are players you will probably see in streaming articles next week.
All stats are through Week 3 and don’t include Thursday’s Lions, Packers game.
Quarterbacks - Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson on bye
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Washington matches up with the Bears in Week 5, who have allowed the fifth-most passing yards and fantasy points to quarterbacks. They have also allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt; Chicago was worst in that category in 2022.
Howell isn’t in many lineups and can probably be picked up easily. He doesn’t have great stats, but he struggled against the tough Arizona and Buffalo defenses in Weeks 1 and 3 while having a good Week 2 against Denver, who just gave up 70 points. Howell was just 1.1 points from the top 10 QBs that week.
He has good playmakers in Terry McLaurin (over 900 yards all four years of his career), Jahan Dotson (first-round pick with seven touchdowns in 2022), and Brian Robinson (fifth in standard scoring among running backs).
Pass-catching back Antonio Gibson (a running back option for Week 5) will be facing the team that has allowed the third-most receiving yards and tied for most receiving touchdowns to running backs. Howell is set up for success and could be a top-10 quarterback in Week 5.
Honorable Mention: Tennessee visits Indianapolis, and both teams are bottom-10 against quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill is probably available, and Gardner Minshew would be if he gets back into action. Anthony Richardson is active in Week 4, but head injuries, unfortunately, happen in succession. Tannehill and Minshew would both be streaming options (and pick up Richardson if he's free in any scenario).
Running Back - Austin Ekeler, Jerome Ford, Kenneth Walker and Rachaad White on bye
Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Melvin Gordon, Baltimore Ravens
J.K. Dobbins went down for the year in Week 1, and it’s been a committee in the backfield since that point, as coach Harbaugh said it would be. Both Edwards and Hill had eight carries Week 1, and while Edwards was more productive, Hill’s eight carries for nine yards produced two touchdowns.
Splitting carries again in Week 2, Edwards was more productive and scored a touchdown, but Hill did catch three passes. The story was the same in Week 3, but Hill was out, and Gordon replaced him with 10 carries for 32 yards and two receptions for 23 yards. Edwards is the only back to play all three games but hasn’t caught a pass.
It appears touches will be split, and it will be a toss-up as to who performs best in fantasy. I’d rather have Edwards, Hill, then Gordon in that order, and Gordon might not play if the other two are active, so be aware before just throwing him in.
All (or any of the) three might be free agents in your league. Baltimore matches up with the Steelers in Week 5, the team that has allowed the second-most rushing yards and fourth-most fantasy points to running backs in 2023.
The backs who play will get double-digit carries against a leaky defense, and there are much worse options if you need to fill a hole on the bye.
Wide Receiver - Keenan Allen, DK Metcalf, Amari Cooper and Mike Evans on bye
Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice, and Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs
Playing with Patrick Mahomes can make any player fantasy-relevant, much like we’ve seen with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the past. None of these receivers has stood out above the rest, but there is a case to be made for each of the three as the top fantasy WR on the team.
Moore was shut out in Week 1 (with one 4-yard carry), but he scored a touchdown in Week 2 and has seven catches for 112 yards over the last two games. He is trending in the right direction, as he has increased his targets and receptions each week.
Rice had a touchdown in his first game but didn’t top 30 yards over the first two weeks. He had five catches for 59 yards against a bad Bears defense Week 3 and got tackled at the 1-yard line twice, barely missing a big day.
Toney had a disastrous Week 1, playing a big part in his team’s loss. They went back to him in Week 2, however, with five catches and a carry. He only gained 38 yards, but it was nice to see him involved after a rough game. Toney was questionable going into Week 3 and played early, but he was surely held out as the Chiefs blew out Chicago. He caught one pass and lost a yard on the play.
Kansas City matches up with Minnesota in Week 5, one of the most generous defenses to quarterbacks and wide receivers over the last two seasons; that includes the third-most receiving yards and fantasy points to receivers in 2023.
Depending on how deep your league is, these players might all be free agents or all be rostered. Any of the three could have a big game against the Vikings, and they are worth considering for your WR2 spot and lower. I’d rank them in the order they are listed: Moore, Rice, then Toney.
Honorable Mention: Let’s go back to the Colts, Titans well: I mentioned that both quarterbacks have good matchups, and the receivers follow suit. Treylon Burks is a big-play receiver and former first-round pick of Tennessee, and he had 76 yards in Week 2. Colts’ rookie Josh Downs (third-round pick) had eight catches for 57 yards in Week 3 and could be a volume option, especially if Minshew gets back in the lineup.
Tight End - David Njoku on bye
Hayden Hurst, Carolina Panthers
Hurst had five catches on seven targets for 41 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, ranking second among tight ends in both standard and PPR scoring. He hasn’t reached any of those numbers over the last two weeks combined: four receptions on six targets for 31 yards with no score.
That Week 1 game was against Atlanta, who has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Weeks 2 and 3 were against the tougher Saints (sixth-least fantasy points) and Seahawks (15th-least). The Detroit Lions have given up the most receptions and receiving yards and fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Hurst may have been picked up after his strong Week 1, but most owners surely dropped him after two games outside the top 40 in standard and PPR. Hurst is a good streaming option you can pick up and insert in Week 5. He can be a security blanket for his rookie quarterback when Adam Thielen comes back to Earth.
Defense - Cleveland on bye
Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears
The Bears have been horrible and face a Washington defense with serious stopping power in Week 5. Here are a few facts before we go too far:
- Chicago has scored the sixth-least points this season
- They have allowed the third-most fantasy points to defenses
- Justin Fields is tied for the second-most interceptions thrown
- Washington is seventh in sacks and tied for fifth in fumble recoveries
- Fields has been sacked 12 times, tied for second-most
Chicago hasn’t had any answers, and that has started with their quarterback. Washington has been league-average against quarterbacks and running backs while shutting down tight ends and allowing more luck to receivers. Stopping Fields is the key to stopping the Bears, and the star-studded defensive line in Washington is up to the task.
Washington will host the Bears on a short week, as these teams play Thursday night in Week 5. This has the makings of a rough game for the Chicago offense.
