Commanders' Sam Howell is a Top-10 Fantasy QB for Week 5
Sam Howell has been better than you think as a fantasy quarterback in 2023. He has the 11th-most passing yards and rushing yards among QBs and is one of 16 at the position to run in a touchdown. He is 18th in fantasy scoring, but a horrible Week 3 against the Bills tanks an otherwise respectable performance.
| Game | Att-Comp | Yards | TD - INT | Rushing Yards | Fantasy Points (QB Rank) |
| Week 1 vs Arizona | 19-31 | 202 | 1 - 1 | 11 (1 TD, 1 Lost Fumble) | 15.18 (T-12th) |
| Week 2 @ Denver | 27-39 | 299 | 2 - 0 | 13 | 21.26 (13th) |
| Week 3 vs Buffalo | 19-29 | 170 | 0 - 4 | 18 | 0.6 (34th) |
| Week 4 @ Philadelphia | 29-41 | 290 | 1 - 0 | 40 | 19.6 (12th) |
*The stats used are through Sunday of Week 4 and do not include the Monday night game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants. Most stats and fantasy rankings are from ESPN, and defensive rankings against positions are from Pro Football Reference.
Howell was 34th among quarterbacks in Week 3 scoring; there are only 32 teams in the league. Two players who didn't start scored more fantasy points than Howell, and only two players who threw a pass scored less (C.J. Beathard and Tyrod Taylor, with three combined pass attempts). That's as bad a fantasy performance as a player can have, and it calls into question Howell's consistency.
He is averaging 25 completions for 264 yards in the other three weeks, though, and has four touchdowns to just one interception. A rushing touchdown pushes him higher, with a lost fumble mitigating that a bit. Howell has been a near-starter in fantasy for 75% of the season, and that's more than many of us would have said a month ago. He goes up against one of the juiciest matchups in the league Thursday night.
Da Bears' Defense
I can't stress enough, fine readers, that the Chicago Bears are NOT the Bills on defense; 1985 was a long time ago. Here is how the Bears match up so far in 2023 and how they did last season in several relevant metrics:
| Year | Passing Yards (Rank) | QB Rushing Yards (Rank) | QB Fantasy Pts/Game (Rank) | WR Fantasy Pts/Game (Rank) | TE Fantasy Pts/Game (Rank) |
| 2022 | 3,817 (13th) | 379 (24th) | 18.2 (27th) | 22.1 (22nd) | 5.4 (5th) |
| 2023 | 1,088 (28th) | 69 (19th) | 21.6 (31st) | 24.7 (22nd) | 6.2 (20th) |
Chicago was respectable against the pass in 2022 but allowed nine rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks, two more than any other team. Quarterbacks haven't run against them as much in 2023, but they haven't played many burners (Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson) and gave up the ninth-most yards on the ground last year to QBs.
Most importantly, quarterbacks haven't had to run against Chicago; they've sat back and picked apart the pass defense. Howell isn't Lamar Jackson, but he's run for double-digit yards each game and hit 40 last week. He ran for 35 yards and a touchdown in his one game last season. It's reasonable to expect a small boost from rushing production in Week 5.
The Bears have the least sacks in the league: just two. They've intercepted just two passes with no fumble recoveries on defense. Chicago has allowed the fifth-most yards and tied for second-most points. This is a team to target every week when deciding fantasy starters and streaming options. The only position they have had luck with is tight ends, but that bolds well for Washington.
Howell's Partners in Crime
Logan Thomas is 15th in tight end standard scoring and 17th in PPR; that's not bad, especially considering he missed a game. He's averaging just three catches and 35 yards in the games he did play, though, and has one touchdown. He has only one good season in his career, and it was in 2020. I'm not trusting Thomas as a real fantasy option, but he can make a few plays and help Howell.
The Commanders have built a good team, with offensive playmakers at the other positions:
- Wide receivers: Terry McLaurin has over 1,050 yards each of the last three seasons and is averaging 53 yards per game in 2023 with one touchdown. He is the steadiest pass catcher on Washington's roster. Jahan Dotson hasn't topped 40 yards in a game this season, but he had seven touchdowns last year and went over 50 yards five times in just 12 games.
- Running backs: Brian Robinson is fifth among running backs in standard scoring (seventh in PPR) and has broken out as a weekly fantasy starter. I want to highlight Antonion Gibson for Week 5, though, as Chicago has given up the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns to running backs in 2023. Their 23 receptions allowed are only four less than the league high.
Not only will Howell have the benefit of targeting his talented receivers, but he can pick apart a weak group with his backs. Gibson leads the backfield with eight receptions, but Robinson has five of his own, one of which was a touchdown. The Bears like to diversify who beats them on a play-to-play basis, so everyone should get a chance to produce.
The Verdict
Howell is a fantasy starter this week. Justin Herbert and Deshaun Watson are on bye, as are Mayfield and Geno Smith, two players with streaming potential in certain matchups. There are only five quarterbacks in Week 5 I would argue are at elite fantasy starting status: Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Jackson, and Mahomes. The rest of the starting spots are up for grabs, and I see Howell within the top 10 QBs due to his production and (especially) great matchup against Chicago.
