Finding The Top Week 5 Fantasy Football Pickups With Predictive Analytics: Jaleel McLaughlin, Michael Wilson, C.J. Stroud

Let's take a look at fantasy football's most popular waiver wire options heading into Week 5! We can use the Predictive Analytics tool in the FantasySP Fantasy Assistant to help identify the top candidates. This tool predicts the Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) for every player, plus predicts their new rostership level following this week's waiver moves. Here are its current predictions for this week:

Top Predicted Week 5 Fantasy Football Adds

RB Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos

A UDFA out of Youngstown State, McLaughlin is understandably currently rostered in just 4% of leagues. However, when Javonte Williams exited this week with a hip injury, the rookie had a breakout game, rushing seven times for 72 yards and adding three catches for 32 yards and a TD. He looks explosive whenever he touches the ball, certainly more than veteran Samaje Perine. With waivers getting thinner as we get deeper into the season, McLaughlin is the top option this week with a 53% EWI.

As for whether McLaughlin is worth adding, my answer is definitely yes. However, temper expectations. For one, recent reports say Williams will not miss much time, and he may even be back for the Broncos' next game. For another, despite clearly being more explosive than Perine, I don't expect McLaughlin to see more than roughly 50% of the work. He had just one pass-blocking snap in this game and absolutely whiffed on a free rusher. That is the kind of thing that will keep a rookie off the field. With all that in mind, I still like adding McLaughlin, but I don't think he's anywhere near as exciting as the top waiver options have been so far this season (De'Von Achane, Puka Nakua, etc.). 

Want to make sure you don't waste your FAAB budget? Sync your fantasy teams with our Fantasy Assistant to access our Predictive Analytics, which predict the average winning FAAB bids for each week's hottest pickups BEFORE waivers are run!

WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Michael Wilson was a third-round pick in this year's draft, but people who know far more about the college scene than me have said he would have been selected much higher if he hadn't dealt with a litany of injuries during his time at Stanford. Four weeks into his NFL career, he has stayed healthy and carved out a role on this surprisingly effective Cardinal offense. It all came together this week, as he caught all seven of his targets for 76 yards and two touchdowns. That has led him to garner a healthy 43% EWI, which should skyrocket his current 4% rostership.

It makes sense that Wilson would earn a role on this Cardinals' roster, especially one with red zone usage: At 6'2", he is by far the largest of their top three WRs, as Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore are listed at 5'9" and 5'7" respectively. Still, Wilson's role has been up and down so far this season, as he debuted with a 90% snap share, but that number immediately dropped to 43% in Week 2. Over the last two weeks, that number has been back up to 67% and 70%. It's good that he is trending upward, but this still isn't quite enough to trust him as a weekly play in most leagues.

If you're adding Wilson, it should be as a stash for future weeks, not as someone to plug into your lineup right away. With Brown and Zach Ertz both seeing high target shares, plus Moore and James Conner eating underneath, Wilson is not currently seeing enough volume (4.25 targets per game) to crack fantasy rosters. But any rookie WR who is already having boom games like this is certainly worth stashing. Whether thanks to injury or simply continuing to move his way up the pecking order, Wilson could be a great flex play down the stretch ... especially once Kyler Murray comes back. 

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

It's a rookie-themed week atop the waiver wire, as C.J. Stroud ranks third among players with a 37% EWI. Unlike his fellow rookies Wilson and McLaughlin, Stroud is already rostered in most leagues at 61%, and his EWI this week figures to bring that number to essentially 100%. If Stroud is still available in your league, he is a must-add, and I would prioritize him over Wilson and McLaughlin in any league with 12 or more teams. If you play in a 10-team or smaller league, Stroud is still an option, but his fringe QB1 production is much less valuable, given that most teams will have an elite player at the position. 

Through four weeks, the second-overall pick has proven himself to be ready for the NFL. In Weeks 1 and 2, he attempted an absurd number of passes, averaging 45.5 as he and the Texans' offense played catch-up thanks to their below-average defense. In Weeks 3 and 4, his volume came back to earth, with 30 attempts in each game ... and he still cracked 20 fantasy points in both outings, including throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns against a tough Steelers defense. That means this level of production is sustainable, and with the Texans' defense likely to continue to give up points, there's no reason to think Stroud can't continue to hover in the back half of fantasy QB1 rankings.

Putting it briefly, Stroud looks every bit the real deal for both real-life and fantasy football. He hasn't made as many incredible throws as fellow rookie Anthony Richardson, but he has limited his mistakes and got the ball out quickly and accurately; his 151 attempts without an interception is the highest number in the league. He doesn't add too much value with his legs, but he does have at least three rush attempts in every game so far, so that's something. If you drafted one of the many underperforming fantasy options at the QB position, Stroud is absolutely a viable replacement. 

Quick Hits

• If Stroud is gone in your league, Joshua Dobbs is my favorite pickup at the QB position this week. The likely eventual return of Kyler Murray means he isn't a permanent solution, but he has been getting it done both on the ground and through the air, a perfect recipe for fantasy success. 
• Jameson Williams has a 22% EWI and is somehow currently only rostered in 40% of leagues. He's an absolute must-add anywhere he's available, with a low floor but league-winning upside. 
• Jonnu Smith has a 24% EWI, which I was originally going to say was ridiculous, but it's less crazy than it sounds. Smith has had periods of fantasy relevance before and is tied with teammate Kyle Pitts for 11th at the tight end position in targets. Especially given that Pitts is reportedly dealing with an injury, he might be able to have a few more big weeks in this Arthur Smith offense.