Will Texans’ C.J. Stroud Keep Things Up | Should You Trade for Stroud?

The first month of the NFL season has created a weird leaderboard for the top-scoring quarterbacks.

The top fantasy quarterback so far has been Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert, with Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen just behind him. Surprisingly absent from the top five is Kansas City Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes. The likes of Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa and Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins are actually ahead of Mahomes thus far. 

You have Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence all being quarterbacks with average draft positions before the fifth round, and none of them are currently ranked inside the top 10 at the position. In other words, it’s been a wonky start at the sport’s most prolific position.

If you were one of the fantasy owners that drafted a quarterback early in the draft and maybe haven’t liked what you’ve seen out of them, you’re probably starting to look around for a replacement. One of the guys you’ve likely considered is Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud, who currently ranks 10th at the position.

Let’s discuss whether the rookie’s strong start is sustainable and then what you might need to do to add him to your roster.

Sync your league with the Fantasy Assistant to get rankings, waiver help with predictive analytics, trade suggestions, optimal lineups, and more. Not sure Who You Should Start? We can help. Utilize our fantasy football trade analyzer for trades.

C.J. Stroud Fantasy Outlook

Stroud has been a big reason why the Texans are sitting at 2-2, and his play has the league wondering if the Texans are on the verge of something great in the near future.

The second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft opened his career with a 242-yard passing performance against a talented Baltimore Ravens’ defense. He completed 28-of-44 passes in the contest and didn’t finish with a touchdown or interception. 

Since that contest, Stroud has thrown two touchdowns and no interceptions in every game, with at least 280 passing yards. 

Stroud completed 30-of-47 passes in week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts. He was sacked six times in that contest after being taken down five times in the opener. Stroud hasn’t been sacked in the past two weeks, and the results have been two impressive wins.

The Texans toppled the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 3, with Stroud completing 20-of-30 passes for 280 yards. Stroud completed 16-of-30 passes in week 4 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, throwing for 306 yards.

Stroud hasn’t looked to run a bunch, with three or four attempts in every game. He’s had between 14-20 rushing yards in three of four contests, so there's a little extra fantasy value there.

You’d like to see his completion percentage rise over the current 62.3% he’s at, but you love to see the zero interceptions. He’s top five in the league in pass attempts, passing yards and yards per pass attempts while guiding the Texans to a top-10 offense overall.

Can Stroud Keep It Up?

When looking into whether a player can keep up a strong start or not, I look at several different factors, starting with the offensive weapons around him.

Stroud hasn’t locked into one target in the passing game, instead having four players - Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz - with over 15 targets already. That quartet has been solid so far, but if Stroud continues to play well over the next few weeks and the team is in the playoff hunt, I could see Houston trading for another pass catcher before the trade deadline.

Houston also has a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield with Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary. Pierce has started a bit slow, so it also wouldn’t shock me if the Texans brought in another back to try and get some more production from the position. It would also help if the Texans got better play out of their offensive line.

While several of Stroud’s offensive weapons aren’t really household names, the rookie quarterback has made things work. With another addition or two, Stroud could really take off. It's tough to speculate, but I'd have to imagine the Texans will try to do whatever possible in order to keep Stroud healthy and succeeding.

The next thing I look at when determining the longevity of a fantasy player’s success in a season is the player’s upcoming matchups.

So far, Stroud has faced one elite defense (Ravens) and then three that rank in the bottom half of the league (Colts, Jaguars and Steelers).

In October, Houston will play the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers. The Falcons and Saints have been average, while the Panthers are closer to an elite unit against quarterbacks.

In November, Houston faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals, Arizona Cardinals and Jaguars. Only the Buccaneers from that group of defenses has ranked in the top half of the league so far in slowing the opposing quarterback.

Stroud and the Texans cap the regular season with games against the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Titans again and then finally the Colts. In what will be the latter portion of the regular season and then playoffs in fantasy leagues, only the Browns have been really elite in slowing opposing quarterbacks. The Jets and Titans have also been above average, while the Broncos and Colts have mightily struggled.

With what Stroud has shown so far, and not seeing too many elite defenses on the schedule the rest of the way, I’d say he’s a pretty good option at the position for the remainder of the season. There's definitely quarterbacks that I'd trust more, but after that top tier, Stroud is in the next tier and closer to the top of it.

How to Acquire Stroud

If somehow Stroud is still available in your league’s waiver wire, stop reading this and scoop him up at this moment. If you are streaming your quarterback options this season, Stroud is going to be one of the better options every week. Add him and you get to worry quite a bit less about who you might start at QB every week. There will be weeks where you don't want to start Stroud, but even against a top-end Ravens' defense in the opener, Stroud still put up respectable numbers without many negatives.

It’s more likely that Stroud was either taken as an owner’s second quarterback or was picked up over the last couple of weeks. In those cases where he was someone’s backup quarterback, I’d hope their top option at QB is a guy like Mahomes, Allen or Herbert, because then they’d be far more likely to deal away Stroud. Simply look through their roster and find a position of weakness and then locate a player in our player ratings that’s near Stroud and propose the deal. Stroud is currently 86th overall, but continues to move the ratings each week, so act now.

If Stroud was picked up over the last few weeks, that owner was likely streaming quarterbacks too and hit a jackpot so far with the Texans’ quarterback. His asking price will probably be a bit higher, so you might need to find a player on your roster quite a bit higher ranked than Stroud to get the deal done. Just be prepared for a pretty good player of yours to be asked for in return, and hope you have the depth at that position to make a deal work without compromising your team long term.