49ers' Brock Purdy Jumps into Fantasy Starter Realm
According to Fantasy Pros (who will be referenced a lot), Brock Purdy has finished 10th, 23rd, 13th, 11th, and seventh in fantasy quarterback scoring through the first five weeks. That puts him eighth at the position for the season.
From Weeks 13-18 in 2022, the games Purdy started, he finished 18th, eighth, 14th, 13th, ninth and fifth. He was 10th in scoring over that time, just three points from seventh. This is now 11 regular season games (which is all we will focus on: no playoffs) over two seasons proving that Purdy is a starting fantasy quarterback.
Two things were holding me (and a lot of others, I think) back from declaring him a good option. First, he was a seventh-round rookie stepping into a high-leverage role, and there was no precedent for success. After his injury in the playoffs, it was easy to doubt Purdy's ability to recreate the magic of 2022.
Second, when he did succeed, we said he was a product of the system, just doing what Kyle Shanahan said and getting the ball to his talented teammates. Is there a problem with that? That’s called running your team’s offense, and Purdy is doing it close to as well as anyone in the league right now.
Purdy's Performance
That doesn’t mean he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but it does mean that he’s been consistently productive on a winning team. I see no reason this won’t be the case moving forward: Purdy hasn't had an overly easy slate of opponents, and he hasn't had his best performances against the worst teams. He has been able to handle all defenses with varying degrees of fantasy success.
The following table shows each game Purdy has started, his opponents' season rank in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and Purdy's weekly fantasy ranking among quarterbacks:
| Game | Defensive Rank: QB Fantasy Pts/Gm | Purdy Fantasy Rank |
| 2022 Week 13 vs Dolphins | 31st | 18th |
| 2022 Week 14 vs Buccaneers | 18th | 8th |
| 2022 Week 15 @ Seahawks | 15th | 14th |
| 2022 Week 16 vs Commanders | 19th | 13th |
| 2022 Week 17 @ Raiders | 28th | 9th |
| 2022 Week 18 vs Cardinals | 23rd | 5th |
| 2023 Week 1 @ Steelers | 16th | 10th |
| 2023 Week 2 @ Rams | 22nd | 23rd |
| 2023 Week 3 vs Giants | 18th | 13th |
| 2023 Week 4 vs Cardinals | 29th | 11th |
| 2023 Week 5 vs Cowboys | 5th | 7th |
That's no murderer's row, but it's a lot of teams in the middle of the league and a good barometer: against league-average opponents, Purdy has been a fantasy starter. By far, his toughest matchup was last week against the Cowboys. How did Purdy respond? By finishing seventh in scoring on the week as his team blew out their rivals 42-10.
Looking Ahead
The rest of 2023 is very similar to the sample we have. Here's the rest of the 49ers' schedule and each opponents' rank against quarterbacks in fantasy scoring this year:
| Game | Defensive Rank: QB Fantasy Pts/Gm |
| Week 6 @ Browns | 4th |
| Week 7 @ Vikings | 25th |
| Week 8 vs Bengals | 14th |
| Week 10 @ Jaguars | 24th |
| Week 11 vs Buccaneers | 8th |
| Week 12 @ Seahawks | 21st |
| Week 13 @ Eagles | 27th |
| Week 14 vs Seahawks | 21st |
| Week 15 @ Cardinals | 29th |
| Week 16 vs Ravens | 2nd |
| Week 17 @ Commanders | 30th |
| Week 18 vs Rams | 22nd |
That's....not imposing. The Browns will be tough this week, and the Bucs and Ravens loom, but no other team they play is currently higher than 14th against quarterbacks. The average defense Purdy has faced in his 11 games had a rank of 20.4 against QBs; the average team in his remaining 12 games in 2023 sit at 18.9. Similar results are very likely moving forward.
Purdy doesn't have to be a weekly player if you're still worried about tough defenses. You can find a replacement for the tougher games, but he is going to perform better on a weekly basis than players like Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, or even Trevor Lawrence this season.
Skill Players
The 49ers might have the best collection of skill players in the league:
- Christian McCaffrey: Top scoring player overall in PPR and second to Josh Allen in standard
- George Kittle: Fifth in standard scoring and sixth in PPR among tight ends
- Brandon Aiyuk: 17th in both standard and PPR despite missing a game with injury and playing a second seriously compromised by injury
- Deebo Samuel: Samuel is one spot before Aiyuk in standard (16th) and one spot after him in PPR (18th)
Even kicker Jake Moody is seventh in fantasy at his position, only six points behind second place. That doesn't help Purdy, but it hammers home the point: this team is stacked at every position, and the ecosystem is perfect for a quarterback to survive. Not only is Purdy surviving, he's now thriving and enhancing his teammates.
What Does It Mean?
I am comfortable with Purdy as my lone quarterback. Maybe you want to sit him this week, and the team is on bye Week 9, but you aren't going to need another option most of the season if you believe in the San Francisco passer. He might be a free agent in your league and, if so, should be picked up. He could probably be had in a trade for a low-level running back or receiver if you're strong at one of those positions.
If you have Purdy already, I think he has more value to your team than he does in a trade. If you can get someone to value him highly, great, make a deal. I think most still don't trust him, though, and you could get a better return on another quarterback with a bigger name. Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are some of the guys at or below where Purdy ranks.
Mahomes is great, but it's well worth trading him for a top-tier skill player if you can play Purdy most weeks and get close to the same production. That's the question: do you believe Purdy is this player and will continue performing? I do. If you do also, make moves accordingly.
If you're still not sold, hold onto Purdy in the meantime and see what he does between now and your league's trade deadline. If he continues to excel and another owner loses a quarterback to injury, you could bank a great return for one of your passers.
