Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle Week 10: Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams and Mark Andrews

Week 9 choosing fantasy stars who would struggle saw two winning picks, one loser, and one in the middle:

• Jalen Hurts only threw for 207 yards and ran for 36, but he threw two touchdowns and scored one of his own, making him QB3 for the week. The yardage looks like a win, but Hurts is a top fantasy quarterback for a reason.
• With just 63 total yards, Tony Pollard was outside of the top 25 running backs in both formats. The Eagles are the best run defense in the league, and Pollard found out the hard way.
• Mike Evans had four catches for 87 yards: that made him WR18 in standard and WR21 in PPR. That’s not a bad day, by any means, but touchdowns have been the story for Evans, and he failed to score in Week 9, looking like a borderline WR2.
• Trey McBride was outside the top 25 tight ends in all formats with only three catches for 22 yards against the Browns, who will come up again later.

A lot of really good players are sitting out this week: the Chiefs, Dolphins, Eagles, and Rams are all on bye leaving no less than 12 weekly starters for which fantasy owners must find replacements. That also limits the number of “stars” we have to pick from for this column.

This week’s group has a lot of big names, but they have performed to varying degrees of success in 2023. A young quarterback facing impossible expectations, a running back defying our expectations, a frustrated receiver, and a tight end just doing his thing make up the ranks in this week’s look at fantasy stars who may not perform up to standard.

 

Quarterback

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers

Lawrence isn’t a fantasy star this season: he’s had just three weeks inside the top 12 quarterbacks and has regularly been a QB2 in 2023. There are a lot of good quarterbacks on bye this week, though (the names Mahomes, Tagovailoa, and Hurts may ring a bell), and Lawrence is projected as a top-10 option across most major outlets.

Also: I wasn’t keen on making the case against Lamar Jackson, even against a good Cleveland defense.

The 49ers have been just OK against the pass this season, sitting near the middle of the league in passing yards allowed per game but giving up the sixth-least fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. San Fran traded for former second overall pick Chase Young at the deadline; he’ll get his first game action with the team in Week 10.

This is more about Lawrence, though. The general consensus was that he turned a corner last season and was ready to come into 2023 blazing, solidifying himself as a weekly starter in fantasy. He has a better completion percentage and yards per attempt than either of his first two years, but the improvements have been felt more in real football than fantasy.

Lawrence is on pace for less yards and touchdowns than 2022, with more interceptions (barely) and by far the most sacks taken in his career. Lawrence hasn’t been bad, and his team is comfortably on the way to the playoffs, but this has been a disappointing year for fantasy owners looking for a big jump.

I see Lawrence having a middling day against the 49ers, maybe turning it over once or twice and taking a few sacks, finishing in the QB12-QB20 range again.

 

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

D’Andre Swift ran for 130 yards against Tampa in Week 3. No other back has hit 70 yards against the Bucs, and only one has reached 60. Tampa Bay gives up a lot through the air, but they have been stout against the run all year. They aren’t a team to mess with on the ground.

Henry just keeps chugging. He’s been a top-16 back in both standard and PPR in six of his eight games. Henry has the fourth-most rushing yards and 16th-most receiving yards among running backs, and his four rushing touchdowns are 13th-most. It’s just another year.

Henry has been efficient in about half his games, but his worst performance of the year came against another tough run defense: the Cleveland Browns. Tampa has allowed six less rushing yards than Cleveland on four more attempts; they’ve also allowed eight less fantasy points to running backs than the Browns.

Henry is tough to shut down, but his fantasy production usually comes from volume more than efficiency. The Bucs have allowed the eighth-least rushing yards to running backs and second-least fantasy points per game. I see Tampa holding strong and limiting Henry’s upside this week.

 

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Jets

It feels like it's cheating to choose Adams because he’s regularly not living up to expectations. I was surprised, though, to find that he is in the top 21 receivers in PPR total points, PPR points per game, and standard total points (while 31st in standard points per game).

That’s...not as bad as I thought. We hold Adams to the standard of a top-five receiver, so his fall to just “starting receiver” seems like a huge drop.

The Jets have a great defense. They are still in the playoff hunt with Zach Wilson playing most of the season: enough said. New York has allowed the least receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Rather than focusing on that stout unit, let’s do a quick investigation into Adams and Jakobi Meyers in their new landscape. Jimmy Garoppolo was benched last week, with rookie Aidan O’Connell stepping into the starting lineup. I’m not looking too much into their destruction of the Giants in Week 9 because Big Blue is dealing with just as many issues as Vegas.

Meyers has been among the top 20 fantasy receivers in standard scoring in five of his eight games; Adams is two of nine. Those two games are the only two in which Adams scored double digit standard points. Meyers finished in the top 25 PPR receivers in six of eight games, while Adams reached that mark in four of nine (with another 29th-place finish).

Add it all up, and Adams has been a disappointment for most of the season. We can’t even blame his environment because a less-heralded receiver is outplaying him on a regular basis. I’ve been holding out hope Adams can bounce back, but he’s no longer a weekly fantasy starter.

Adams and Meyers are WR3/flex options at best this week, and I would bench both against this Jets’ defense unless I had no other choice. Expect disappointment from the whole Las Vegas offense on Sunday night.

 

Tight End

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns

In Week 4 against the Browns, Andrews had five catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns. All other tight ends COMBINED have 14 catches for 75 yards and no touchdowns in 2023 against Cleveland. That Week 4 game was the first Deshaun Watson missed, and rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson was eaten up by a tough Ravens defense.

The Cleveland defense was done in by several short fields, and Andrews was one of the beneficiaries. The Browns D hasn’t been as dominate lately as it was at the start of the season, but they are still very good and have essentially wiped out the tight end position most games.

Andrews has been a top-20 PPR tight end every week except when he missed Week 1. He’s been outside the top 10 only three times. It’s mostly the same story in standard. He has the sixth-most catches, third-most yards, and most touchdowns among tight ends.

Betting against Andrews is scary, and this is by far the pick I feel worst about this week. There’s a chance he goes for 80 yards and a couple of scores again, but I’m willing to bet Cleveland’s propensity for shutting down tight ends will show up more in Week 10, holding Andrews to a slower game.