Black Friday Football Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets: Fantasy, Best Bets and Props

We hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and had a great day of fantasy football and football in general. We got to see a stunning upset of the Detroit Lions by the Green Bay Packers. A significantly less stunning shellacking of the Washington Commanders by the Dallas Cowboys. Last and probably least, the San Francisco 49ers handled the Seattle Seahawks with relative ease.  Today the NFL has spoiled us with yet another game. The Dolphins will travel to take on the Jets at MetLife Stadium, and we have a lot to say about this one. 

Place smarter prop bets. Check out our Player Prop Bet Research Tool, which makes it easy to find the best prop bets every week.

Week 12 Black Friday Football Best Bets

We're going to start with the Miami Dolphins here because there is no reason to depress you in the first paragraph. At quarterback, you have Tua Tagovailoa who has shown to have an unbelievable upside this season but has also struggled at times against top defenses. The Jets' defense is one of if not the best in the league against the pass. They have elite cornerbacks and a strong defensive line that makes a quarterback's day miserable. Tua is not a must-start this week, but he's also not a guy you have to bench. I personally benched him for Brock Purdy yesterday and now wish I didn't. Purdy threw for 209 yards, one TD, and one Int. Tua should put up better numbers than that in this one. As good as the Jets pass-defense has been, this team is also in another late-season spiral and the wheels could fall completely off any day now. 

For the skill position players in Miami, we are starting Tyreek Hill and benching Jaylen Waddle at wide receiver. Sauce Gardner is a very good corner. Hill is a better receiver. You don't bench the best receiver in the NFL no matter who he is up against so don't get cute here. However, Waddle can be sat down this week. The Jets' defense will likely take him out of this game. The big question is, will De'Von Achane suit up? As of writing this, we don't know yet. If Achane plays we are starting both him and Raheem Mostert no questions asked. If Achane is out, Moster becomes a potential RB1 in this matchup. As good as the pass defense has been for the Jets, they have been struggling against running backs as of late. For a bit of a hotter take, if Achane is out we would also consider flexing Jeff Wilson in this game. 

Now for the Jets. We weren't sure if it was possible to bench Zach Wilson, the worst quarterback in the NFL, and actually get worse but that's exactly what they did. In a move of pure desperation, after inexplicably praising Wilson for weeks head coach Robert Saleh is now grasping at straws and starting Tim Boyle. It's almost shocking at this point that this team hasn't signed Nathan Peterman to save the day. You may not know a whole lot about Boyle, why would you? Well if you love unreasonably bad football players then you're in for a treat. Boyle has started three games and came in in relief in various other games including last week throughout his unremarkable career. In his career, he has thrown three touchdowns and nine interceptions while failing to ever hit the 110-yard mark in a game. Last week he played the second half and went 7-14 for 33 yards and a pick. His longest past went for seven yards. So yeah, you probably shouldn't start that guy. 

The Jets' skill position players could all be disastrous this week as well. The only two guys we really need to talk about are Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. If you have Wilson you probably have to start him, but we saw his floor last week against a bad pass defense and it was negative points. This week he'll likely be matched up against the reigning Defensive Player of the Week Jalen Ramsey who is currently allowing a passer rating of 0.0 on passes thrown in his direction. Last week against Davante Adams he held him to one catch for four yards on five targets. Since his return the Dolphins have been the third-ranked defense in football. On the off chance, Ramsey isn't on Wilson, he'll instead be dealing with All-Pro corner Xavien Howard. On top of all that he has to rely on Boyle to get him the ball, something he proved incapable of just five days ago. \

As good as Miami's pass defense has been, the rush defense has been much better and they will be focusing on Breece Hall in this one. You are starting Hall because he has PPR value and you're hoping he breaks a big play. However, you need to temper expectations. Hall hasn't rushed for more than 50 yards since Week 5 and has one rushing TD during that span in Week 6. So essentially all his fantasy value has to come through the air. He does have 40 receptions for 296 yards and two TDs through the air this season, but his ceiling isn't very high if he doesn't break a long one. 

Needless to say, we do think the Dolphins are going to win this game, nevertheless, the Jets' defense could keep them competitive if the offense doesn't give up points to the Dolphins' defense. I think we all know that the Jets' offense is going to give up points to the Miami defense though, don't we? 

The Picks

Miami Dolphins -9.5 (-108)
Miami Dolphins Moneyline (-455)
Over/Under U40.5 (-112)

Player Props of the Night

Prop #1: Raheem Mostert, Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

We are taking this bet now because if Achane is inactive this line will change. So get it while it's hot. Even with Achane active, we still believe Mostert will be the lead back and is more than capable of hitting this mark. However, we do believe that Achane will be sidelined for this one. 

Prop #2: Tim Boyle, Over 1.5 Interceptions (+150)

There is no need to beat a dead horse here, but it was shocking to see these odds at +150 even if it is at 1.5 and not the standard 0.5 like it usually is for most quarterbacks. Unless he is removed from the game it would be shocking if Boyle doesn't throw at least two picks in this game. Maybe in the first quarter. 

Prop #3: Tim Boyle, Under 168.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Again, we aren't trying to pile on here, but in order to hit this mark Boyle would have to eclipse his career-high 62 yards which would be more than a 50% increase. Behind the worst offensive line in football with a defensive-minded coach, and going up against Ramsey, Howard, and Jevon Holland we just don't see that happening.