Best Bets for Miami, Kansas City and Cleveland, Houston Playoff Games: Tyreek Hill, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, Patrick Mahomes and More
Looking at the betting lines and some player props from both Saturday NFL playoff games.
The NFL Playoffs are here!! It's a fun time for all but a stressful stretch for fans of the teams still alive and gamblers alike. With fantasy fooball over for most, DFS and betting become the primary ways to stay engaged with the product. With that in mind, we at FantasySP are going to preview every game of the postseason and give you betting advice and high-value player props.
We'll start at the beginning with Wild Card Saturday. Two AFC matchups will take place, with the Miami Dolphins traveling to Kansas City following back-to-back losses to end the season and a dominate Cleveland defense facing an exciting young Texans team.
All lines are from FanDuel and correct as of 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Jan. 11.
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) – O/U 44.5
Game Lines
I don’t have a great feeling about either of the lines here and will be staying away. Buying the Chiefs down to -3 or -2.5 is a much better proposition if you have access to alternate lines.
I predicted the final as 24-20 Chiefs, which would fall right at the total; again, I don’t see any great value.
Miami is entering the playoffs far from 100%, with injuries across the offensive line and to important skill players. Raheem Mostert missed the final two games of the season and is questionable coming into this one. Jaylen Waddle suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 16 and hasn't played since.
The Dolphins have a fighting chance, but the maladies will take their toll. On the defensive side, Miami lost their top two pass rushers (Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips) to season-ending injuries within a month of each other. It's so much for one team to weather.
Given Kansas City’s championship-level defense, I see Miami running out of steam and falling short. Patrick Mahomes will make a play to win the game in the fourth quarter.
Player Props
Tua Tagovailoa O/U 237.5 Passing Yards
Tua came in under this number just five times all season. Four of those games were against the Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, and Bills: Those teams were all in the top six in pass yards allowed per attempt. Everybody is worse against good defenses, but these teams stopped Miami from moving the ball through the air.
These teams played in Germany back in Week 9, and Tua finished 21-of-34 for 193 yards, his second-lowest yardage total of the season. The Chiefs didn’t allow a 300-yard passer this year and are in the top 10 in least passing yards allowed per game and per attempt. Things are pointing toward the under.
Tyreek Hill O/U 86.5 Receiving Yards
That bleeds well into discussing Hill, the X-factor, in the Tua equation. We don’t need to rehash Hill’s accolades: He’s the most explosive receiver in football but also one of the most consistent. These guys just don’t exist in the real world.
This number would seem too low in many cases, but Kansas City is a different animal on defense. Hill caught eight passes when they played in Week 9 but gained only 62 yards. Hill was catching the ball short with the defense bringing him down fast.
Our player prop projection tool sees Hill’s over as the best prop bet of the game, expecting him to gain 112 yards. That’s a huge gap (30%). I get it; Hill is amazing, and he should be the top fantasy receiver drafted next year.
The matchup is the only thing holding me back, though. If Waddle is indeed out, the ball will be force-fed to Hill. This is the playoffs, not time to mess around with your fourth receiver. It’s uncertain enough that I’m staying away from the bet, though, and I would take the under if I had to make a call.
Other Props I Like
- Patrick Mahomes OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Travis Kelce OVER 51.5 Receiving Yards
- Jaylen Waddle UNDER everything if he plays (read this article about players returning from high ankle sprains)
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs Houston Texans – O/U 44.5
Game Lines
I understand why Cleveland is favored and wouldn’t be shocked if they won. The Browns might have the best defense in football; they are facing a rookie quarterback and head coach.
Houston has been very good, though, and C.J. Stroud isn’t playing like any rookie in recent memory. Despite missing two games, he finished eighth in passing yards and tied for 13th in passing touchdowns. He will be challenged by Cleveland, but he has shown the ability to excel in tough situations.
I’m more worried about Cleveland’s offense. Joe Flacco has been a revelation, and, I mean, who called that one, right? He threw for over 300 yards in four of his five starts (254 in the other), but he attempted over 40 passes in four of those games also.
The Browns won by 14 when these teams played in Week 16, but Stroud and third overall pick Will Anderson Jr. were out, seriously compromising the Texans on both sides. This is the upset I feel best about in the Wild Card round; buying the Texans to +3 or +3.5 is a solid bet.
I predicted the final as Browns 23-20, so I’m not touching the total, though I’d lean slightly under.
Player Props
Joe Flacco O/U 275.5 Passing Yards
Speaking of the venerable QB, look at this number! I just said he went over 300 yards in four of five games, but Flacco is tied with Dak Prescott for the highest passing prop number in the Wild Card round. I see things coming back to Earth sooner or later, and what better time than as a favorite on the road.
Watch this video of Flacco’s highlights from the previous time these teams played (it’s less than three minutes long, for those wondering). There are some tight, tight throws there that happened to go Cleveland’s way. His receivers made great plays, but this performance was a few inches away from turning against the Browns.
Flacco threw eight interceptions in his five starts and has struggled with turnovers in the past. If things start going down, I’m not holding out hope for reaching the same heights he has to this point. Flacco can still have a good game and fail to hit this number, and I’m feeling the under.
C.J. Stroud O/U 242.5 Passing Yards
Then there’s the other side of the QB matchup. Our projection tool sees Stroud finishing with 275 yards, easily hitting the required mark.
Stroud topped this number in 10 of his 15 games this season. Doesn’t seem like there’s a reason to second-guess it, right?
Well, of course you know it’s not that easy. The Browns allowed the least passing yards per game and second-least passing yards per attempt this season. They have superstars, like Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward, and depth at all levels.
The quarterbacks were Davis Mills and Case Keenum, so there’s an entire saltshaker to take with these stats, but when they played in Week 16, Cleveland held Houston passers to 178 yards and just 4.3 yards per attempt. That’s 178 yards on 49 passes.
Things will be way different with Stroud at the helm. That being said, I still see him failing to thrive against this tough defense. I am picking Houston to win more of a defensive game, and I see both quarterbacks going under their prop numbers.
Other Props I Like
- Devin Singletary UNDER 63.5 rushing yards
- David Njoku OVER 5.5 catches
- Dalton Schultz UNDER 41.5 receiving yards
