Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook for 2024 | Projecting Starters for Each Team and then Ranking Them

The NFL season still has a couple weeks of postseason play to go, but some fans already have their sights set on next season.

I’ve always found it fun to predict how things might look around the league before the offseason really gets going. With that idea in mind, I decided to rank the starting quarterbacks from a fantasy football perspective. Let’s dive in.

Locked-In Starters

While you might think there’s only so many quarterbacks that are truly locked into their starting spots, it’s rare we got a big QB carousel during the offseason. I see 20 guys in this category at this point.

I believe the Arizona Cardinals will stick with Kyler Murray and commit to building around him for the long haul. The Baltimore Ravens are all in on Lamar Jackson, as are the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen.

The Carolina Panthers won’t give up on Bryce Young after a tough rookie season. The Cincinnati Bengals will gladly welcome back Joe Burrow, while the Dallas Cowboys turn to Dak Prescott again (maybe for the last season?).

The Detroit Lions will run things back with Jared Goff, while the Green Bay Packers are set again with Jordan Love. The Houston Texans have their franchise quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and the Indianapolis Colts are hoping Anthony Richardson will be healthy on his way to becoming their franchise leader.

I see the Jacksonville Jaguars giving Trevor Lawrence another go, although he could be replaced if they miss the playoffs again next season. The Kansas City Chiefs will, of course, be led by Patrick Mahomes, while the Los Angeles Chargers hope a coaching change can unlock a new level of play for Justin Herbert.

I think Matthew Stafford has another season in him, and I don’t see a reason to believe the Los Angeles Rams wouldn’t bring him back. The Miami Dolphins will roll with Tua Tagovailoa again, but if they can’t take the next step, he might be on thin ice by next offseason.

I believe the New Orleans Saints will give things another go with Derek Carr, while the New York Jets hopefully can get a full season out of a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The Philadelphia Eagles will have Jalen Hurts leading the offense, with next season being huge for his long-term outlook in Philly. I think Brock Purdy has done more than enough to remain the starter with the San Francisco 49ers. Finally, I like Will Levis to get the chance to lead the Tennessee Titans as they enter a new era.

The Unknowns

This is where things get fun, as I get to predict where guys might land. There’s a couple different tiers to this section.

First off, we have quarterbacks who started this season that I expect to return to their teams. Cleveland Browns’ Deshaun Watson, Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins, Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith and Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield fall under this category to me.

Chicago Bears’ Justin Fields and New York Giants’ Daniel Jones could fall under that category, but I’m a lot less confident that those guys retain their starting roles. If forced to make a decision right now, I think both of them get another year with their current organizations.

We’re down to just six teams without a quarterback. There’s a couple tiers to this section as well.

First, we have starters this season that will land with new teams. I like the Las Vegas Raiders to sign Russell Wilson after he’s cut from the Denver Broncos roster. Vegas has the cap space to go after a quarterback, and would be better suited to roll with a veteran over a rookie because of the state of the rest of the roster.

I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to sign Gardner Minshew as competition for Kenny Pickett. If this were to happen, I think Minshew would end up serving as the team’s starter most often next season.

We’re down to just four teams now, and I see all of these teams rolling with a new quarterback in 2024.

I’m predicting that the New England Patriots move up a couple spots and select Caleb Williams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. With the next pick, I think the Washington Commanders select Drake Maye.

The Atlanta Falcons will make a trade with the Giants to land Jayden Daniels. I then like the Broncos to shock some people and take Bo Nix at pick 12.

2024 Quarterback Fantasy Rankings

Now that we’ve established a starter for each team in the league, it’s time to rank them all.

In the top tier is where Allen, Hurts, Jackson and Mahomes reside. That’s also the order I would have them in. Allen and Hurts simply add so much as runners that it’ll be hard for any other quarterback to top them in fantasy points. Jackson isn’t quite as good a runner as Allen and Hurts and Mahomes won’t be able to rack up enough passing yards to pass the guys ahead of him.

The next tier is one I have six quarterbacks in, and you could make the argument for a few other guys too. In order, I have Prescott, Herbert, Burrow, Stroud, Love and Purdy. These QBs are all good passers, but lack the rushing stats to break into the top tier.

The next three guys on my list are pretty similar quarterbacks - guys who aren’t the best passers, but can do lots of damage with their legs. The trio is Murray, Richardson and Fields. If these guys can improve a bit as passers, they can easily jump over several guys in the tier above them.

The next tier for me has nine quarterbacks in it. It’s a mix of guys coming off injuries and a few guys that I expect to regress a touch. In order, I have Rodgers, Watson, Stafford, Tagovailoa, Cousins, Goff, Wilson, Lawrence and Mayfield. Some of the top fantasy performers this season are in this tier, but they’ll get knocked back with all the injured quarterbacks back in the mix. Most of these guys aren’t big running threats, so in order to jump up a tier or two, they’ll need to avoid turnovers and rack up plenty of passing stats each game.

That leaves 10 quarterbacks for my final tier, which is a mix of veterans who are simply average starters, inexperienced guys and then some rookies.

I’d take Williams to lead off the group, followed up by Maye. While Williams looks like the better fantasy asset, in my scenario I created, he’s going to a Patriots’ offense lacking a ton of talent, so that’s why he’s as far down my rankings as he is. Maye has lots of talent around him, but I can’t take him any higher right now.

I’d follow the two rookies up with Carr, Levis and Smith. Carr could easily jump a tier of two with the talent around him on offense, but he was just too inconsistent to put any higher. The same can really be said about Smith, but I dropped him lower because he’s had a lot less success in the NFL than Carr. I split them with Levis, who we simply haven’t seen enough of at this point.

Next I’d have Daniels, followed by Jones and Young. Minshew and Nix would round out my rankings. 

Daniels could be this year’s Stroud with the amount of talent the Falcons’ offense already has in place. Jones could easily finish in the top half of the leagues if he finds the player he was last season. Young hopefully will learn from his tough season and take a big step forward next season.

Minshew is a serviceable starter, and proved to be a passable starting option this season, but I’m going to rank him here because he has to learn a new offense. Nix takes my last spot, but I think he’d take that because it means he’s starting in the NFL.

I plan to do similar kinds of stories for all offensive positions, and the FantasySP team has a special mock draft planned for after the Super Bowl, so be sure to be on the lookout for all those things!