Super Bowl Analysis: Can the 49ers Throw the Ball Against Kansas City?

The 49ers were the best passing team this season in yards per attempt…by an entire yard. No team has led the league by that margin since the Falcons in 2016, when Matt Ryan won MVP. Atlanta (9.2 yards per attempt) was the only other team in that span to top 9 until San Francisco’s 9.3 yards per attempt in 2023.

Think about how explosive the Dolphins’ passing game was; the 49ers were over 12% better by this measure. No matter what argument you want to make, it’s hard to deny that San Fran had one of the best passing offenses in recent memory.

They are also matching up in the Super Bowl with one of the best pass defenses in the league. According to CBS Sports, Kansas City hasn’t allowed a 300-yard passer all season, including the playoffs. They’ve had 10 games allowing under 200 passing yards and 10 games between 200-300.

So, who is going to blink? It’s the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Let’s run through a few factors that might give us clues as to what to expect on Sunday. I’ll look at how Purdy performed against tough defenses and how the Chiefs responded to good passing offenses to see if there are trends pointing any direction.

 

Brock Purdy vs. Good Pass Defenses

San Francisco faced two great defenses this season: Cleveland in Week 6 and Baltimore in Week 16. The Browns finished the season second in defensive DVOA and fourth in least yards allowed per pass attempt; the Ravens were first in both categories.

Those games didn’t go well for Purdy. Against Cleveland, he was 12-of-27 for 125 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Purdy had better yardage against Baltimore (18-of-32, 255 yards), but he tossed four interceptions and was throwing to catch up most of the game.

• Purdy versus Cleveland and Baltimore: 50.8% completion, 6.4 yards per pass attempt, 1 touchdown, 5 interceptions
• Versus all other teams: 72.2% completion, 10.1 yards per pass attempt, 30 touchdowns, 6 interceptions

That is a stark difference. There are a few other things to consider, including that Purdy tore through a Dallas team that finished 12th in yards per attempt allowed and fifth in defensive DVOA; he wasn’t a dud against every good defense. I consider the Browns and Ravens a notch above the Cowboys, though, as the best defenses in the game.

The Chiefs are at the level of those two teams, allowing the second-least yards per pass attempt and finishing seventh in defensive DVOA. (KC was much better against the pass than the run, but I don’t have access to pass and run DVOA split separately.)

The top units San Francisco faced made them look more like the Giants than the 49ers. That's concerning considering the team they are about to face.

 

Kansas City vs. Good Pass Offenses

The Chiefs have faced seven of the top 12 teams by yards per pass attempt before matching up with the 49ers: In chronological order, the Lions, Vikings, Dolphins (twice), Eagles, Packers, Bills (twice) and Ravens.

I wanted to see how those teams performed against the Chiefs versus all other teams. Over nine games, only the Packers in Week 13 had a higher completion percentage or pass yards per attempt against Kansas City (they hit both marks). The other eight games saw the opponent perform worse against the Chiefs in both categories, and usually by a sizeable amount.

In those eight games, KC’s opponent was worse by an average of 8.2% completion and 1.74 pass yards per attempt. Some of the best pass offenses in the league were turned into below-average units on a regular basis by the Chiefs.

 

Is It That Easy?

Purdy and the 49ers struggled against the best defenses, and the Kansas City defense stopped almost every top passing game they faced. Pretty simple, right? The Chiefs are going to shut down the 49ers, end of story, place your bets.

Of course, it’s not actually that easy. What factors could change things and give San Francisco an advantage? It starts with the running game. The Chiefs finished the regular season 24th in the league in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.5).

San Fran averaged 4.8 yards per attempt, fourth most. Christian McCaffrey was the best running back in the league this season and produces both on the ground and through the air. Same with Deebo Samuel, who carries the ball a few times per game.

The Super Bowl often brings out the most creative juices of offensive coordinators, so a few trick plays will surely be in the works for one of the most creative minds in football, Kyle Shanahan. There will be chances to gain chunk yardage.

I don’t feel good about San Francisco’s outlook throwing the ball, though. I’ve been behind Purdy all year as he continued to excel; this is one of the worst matchups available. The 49ers could win the game a different way, but it won’t be because of consistent production through the air.

 

Conclusion

Don’t expect a big game from Purdy or any San Francisco wide receivers. KC was a little more giving to tight ends, so George Kittle might have a decent day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdy finished around 200 yards.

They might go crazy and make this look silly but results from this season point me toward expecting a frustrating day for the 49er passing game. I’m placing my bets accordingly.