FantasySP Expert DFS Tips for Super Bowl

Well, we made it. Super Bowl weekend is beginning, and it’s our last chance for high-level football (sorry USFL/XFL) until September. Many fantasy players will take part in Daily Fantasy Sports competitions.

DFS is popular all season but especially so when there are only two teams left and any other format is nearly impossible. With fewer decisions to make, the experts here at FantasySP got together one final time to answer five big questions ahead of the Super Bowl.

Morgan Rode, Ted Chmyz, and Mark Morales-Smith joined yours truly, Daniel Hepner, to help you find any potential sleepers (there aren’t many) and set your best lineup for the ultimate game.

 

Which quarterback situation do you like better Sunday: Patrick Mahomes with the weaker supporting cast or Brock Purdy against the tougher pass defense?

Morgan: Definitely Mahomes. Purdy has struggled this postseason (though he has delivered when his team needed him most). The matchup with the Chiefs' defense is a tough one, and I think Purdy makes a mistake or two that keeps the team from winning. Mahomes has been in this situation and rarely makes mistakes in big games. He'll rely on Travis Kelce, and the offense will do just enough to win.

Ted: I want to say Purdy, who outperformed Mahomes (from a fantasy perspective) consistently all season. Mahomes seems to have turned it up a notch in the playoffs, though, and I'm not going to disagree with Vegas, who have given Mahomes a higher passing yards prop and better odds to throw at least two touchdowns.

Mark: If we take who the quarterbacks are out of the equation and just say both QBs are very good, I'd trust a good quarterback to elevate mediocre receivers more than a good passer to have a great day against the best pass defense in the league.

Daniel: Yeah, I’m with everyone else. Purdy has been great, but Kansas City’s defense is a bear to face (not the ’85 Bears, but a bear just the same). Mahomes has his top receiver in Kelce going at full steam and a good complement in Rice; if one more guy can make a few plays, the Chiefs will be tough to beat.

 

Are there any running backs other than Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco that you see maybe providing fantasy value.

Ted: I don't think there is a single running back worth considering in anything but weird formats aside from the two starters. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the best bet to get more than just a few touches ... but do you really want to be counting on him Super Bowl Sunday?

Mark: CEH might catch a few passes. That's about all we can hope for being that the second-best RB in San Fran is a WR.

Morgan: I don't see any other backs making a big enough difference unless there's an injury or lopsided game. McCaffrey will dominate the running back touches for San Francisco, and I expect Pacheco to do the same thing for KC.

Daniel: When looking for backups for my fantasy bench, I like to go with a guy in a great running back situation who would become an instant fantasy starter with just one injury. That guy is Elijah Mitchell this week. Edwards-Helaire has a higher floor because he will get a few touches, but Mitchell has the higher ceiling if you want to save some money and take a shot in the dark.

 

Same idea at wide receiver: Rashee Rice, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel will be in many lineups, but can anyone else provide enough value to clearly be considered the fourth or fifth option?

Mark: No one can be clearly considered the 4th or 5th guy. DFS owners are going to have to roll the dice on a Chiefs WR if they plan on winning any tourneys. My gut feeling is Justin Watson. 

Morgan: Again, I don't see anyone else having a big impact on the game outside of the main guys. I'll at least throw out a couple names: KC's Marquez Valdes-Scantling could make an impact on just a couple catches with his big-play ability. San Fran's Jauan Jennings could steal a touchdown grab, but again, I wouldn't feel confident in either receiver doing much.

Ted: I think each team has one clear candidate for this slot: Valdes-Scantling for the Chiefs and Jennings for the 49ers. Of the two, I prefer MVS. His speed makes him a big-play threat, and he actually ran the most routes of any Kansas City WR, Rice included, in the Conference Championship Game against the Ravens, with a stellar 96% route participation rate.

Daniel: Jennings and Valdes-Scantling make the most sense, with Watson right behind. Kadarius Toney scored a touchdown in last year’s Super Bowl, and while he probably won’t be active this year, the same trick play mentality could work for Skyy Moore or Mecole Hardman. That’s a low-cost dart throw, but I’d prefer the Chiefs’ guys if you go that route.

 

Everyone will be choosing between two of the best tight ends in the league: Travis Kelce and George Kittle.  Who do you prefer from a fantasy perspective?

Morgan: Kelce, and it's not particularly close. Kelce has delivered in each postseason game after a bit of a down regular season. When Mahomes needs to move the chains or score, Kelce is his guy. Kittle is great when he's on, but he has far too many down games to prefer him over Kelce.

Daniel: It’s Kelce, but the one argument for Kittle is that the Chiefs shut down wide receivers while just being very good against tight ends. More balls might be headed Kittle’s way if the receivers have trouble creating space. That said, Kelce has an argument as the top receiver in this game.

Mark: I'm going Kelce. He's the go-to guy in KC. There is a scenario where Kittle is the fourth receiving option for San Francisco. Kelce is much safer with just as much upside.

Lastly, who will be the fantasy MVP of the Super Bowl?

Ted: It's hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes, let alone Purdy, Kelce, Pacheco, Samuel, or Aiyuk ... but it's even harder to pick against Christian McCaffrey. CMC is arguably the best player on the field and set to get the most volume (on the ground and through the air) of anyone. There's a reason his DFS salary is by far the highest of any player on this slate.

Morgan: It'll be Mahomes. I expect him to account for all the team's touchdowns. I know he hasn't rushed for a score all season, but in the biggest game, Mahomes will run one in if he must. He's been here before and knows what it takes to walk away as the winner, and it'll result in a big fantasy day.

Mark: If we are basing this off the most value compared to their price, it’s Rice. I expect at least 80 yards and a touchdown from the rookie. When you consider that he's viewed as Kansas City’s best WR in this game, it has to be him, especially since both RBs will be in every lineup. 

Daniel: Kansas City’s offense works when they have a number one receiver, and that’s what Kelce has been for most of the last five years and so far in the playoffs. His regular season was quiet by his own standards this year, but Kelce is showing up in full force in the games that matter most. He and Mahomes usually get their connection going early and often, and that should be the case again on Sunday.