2024 NFL Mock Draft: No More than Four Quarterbacks in Round 1

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye hear their names called in this final 2024 NFL Mock Draft. Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. will have to wait until Day 2.

This is it. A day away from the start of the 2024 NFL Draft.

It’s about time! While the Bears are technically already on the clock, we know who they are drafting: Caleb Williams. Beyond that, well, that’s where it gets interesting.

Like you, I’ve been absorbing tons of NFL Draft content: Gurus, talking heads, evaluators, team executives, general managers, call-ins during radio shows, the weird guy down by the train tracks. Don’t judge! A scoop’s a scoop.

What do I know? What have I gleaned from any of it? I honestly don’t know. At this point it’s all noise and I’m sifting through it all not knowing what’s junk and what’s gold.

Here’s how I see it and thanks for reading along to my latest 2024 NFL Mock Draft.

2024 NFL Mock Draft Round 1: Picks 1-10

1. Chicago (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2. Washington: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
3. New England: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
4. Arizona: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
5. LA Chargers: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

I have a couple small surprises here for those who are deeply embedded in the mock draft community. For some outside perspective, let’s remember that everything online is essentially a smoke screen. Remember that scene toward the beginning of Fight Club where the narrator is talking about his insomnia? 

“With insomnia, nothing’s real. With insomnia, nothing's real. Everything is far away. Everything is a copy of a copy of a copy.” This is the world of mock drafts. I’m interpreting someone else’s interpretation--ad infinitum. 

In any case the first revelation comes with Jayden Daniels at No. 2. I don’t particularly love this class of quarterbacks. There are a couple things I like and a lot of things I don’t like about each prospect. Daniels’ tape doesn’t wow me. There’s some arm talent but there were a lot of extended plays, busted coverages, wide open receivers downfield. But, everything I hear is that Washington likes him.

Speaking of quarterbacks I don’t like, we have another with McCarthy. An incomplete player comparison but I view him as this year’s Mac Jones. The problem is Jones was much better than McCarthy coming out of college. McCarthy is inoffensive. He does enough. I don’t like his arm strength. I don’t like his footwork. I don’t like his rhythm for the game. I swear I’m not usually this negative. The NFL is just irreparably putting so much on the plates of these quarterbacks that they essentially have three years to be stud quarterbacks or they’re done for.

I guarantee there is a team out there that has Rome Odunze above Marvin Harrison Jr. Would I be shocked if Arizona was one of those teams? No. But for now I’m sticking with MHJ at four and Odunze at 5. 

6. NY Giants: Drake Maye, QB, UNC
7. Tennessee: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
8. Atlanta: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
9. Chicago: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
10. NY Jets: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

If Drake Maye is available at four or five, will somebody trade up? Probably. But I don’t like to get too wrapped up in mocking trades. Maye makes sense for the Giants because the Daniel Jones experiment should have ended after the 2021 season. Giving Jones a four-year, $160 million contract extension last spring was a crime against nature. Indomitable evidence that humans are an arrogant, forsaken species in a cruel, lost world with no anchor, no purpose. Seriously, who didn't see this coming? Anyway.

Maye might be my second-favorite prospect in this class behind Williams. There is a hint of gunslinger, a hint of rhythm to his play, footwork, poise, pocket feel. There’s a style and identity to his game. When things break down, does he play a little too much hero ball? Yes, but so does every other college quarterback.

Beyond this point of the draft, I think we could see a big run on offensive tackles. A lot is made about the receivers in this class, but that position run might not begin until Day 2. In this first round, we should see at least eight tackles get picked. That’s a hair over 30% of the picks in that stretch. I have 10 getting picked in this first round mock.

11. Minnesota: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
12. Denver: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
13. Las Vegas: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
14. New Orleans: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
15. Indianapolis: Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington

I feel bad from whomever the Broncos pick. Talk about a team that is so clearly going to tank this season. We’ve now reached the point where teams are going to very obviously shelve seasons. I swore Arizona was going to do it last year but they resisted.

My favorite prospect here is Mitchell who would be a nice get to the Saints. What we forget about the Saints is just a few years ago in their heyday, it wasn’t all Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. They had an above average defense and I think that’s ultimately how that franchise needs to get back on track. Building around an elite CB1 worked for the Chiefs (I’m joking, relax).

16. Seattle: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
17. Jacksonville: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
18. Cincinnati: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
19. LA Rams: Graham Barton, OT, Duke
20. Pittsburgh: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

Speaking of getting back to their roots, Seattle need to remember their identities: Stifling defense. They made the right play by committing the reins to Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks were overrated two years ago when they made their run and Geno Smith was the Comeback Player of the Year. 

Heading into the 2023 season, I was baffled when people were picking them to upset the 49ers and win the division. Coaching wins in today’s NFL. Old men furiously chewing gum and slapping your behind is nice for the cameras, that’s about it.

The Steelers need to understand they’re a couple years late moving on from Mike Tomlin. The good old days of the strong, silent types at head coach are over. Just ask “human stain” Bill Belichick who gaslit Tom Brady into seeking his validation for decades. If you’ve seen that Patriots docu-series on Apple TV+, you know exactly what I’m talking about. 

Mike Tomlin is being outcoached and outsmarted. It was over two years ago and they squandered the potential of a perfectly decent young quarterback while playing a brand of football that was phased out of the league 15 years ago. OK I’m rambling now, but again, they should at least stick to what they’re good at: drafting and developing their defensive front.

21. Miami: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
22. Philadelphia: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
23. Minnesota (via CLE): Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
24. Dallas: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
25. Green Bay: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
26. Tampa Bay: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

This late run on edge pass rushers, including Darius Robinson at 27, should be a surprise for some. I’ve seen Verse and Latu in a lot of top 10s. I believe the priority of pass-rushers hasn’t declined per se, it’s just that the current era of two-high safeties has shifted the role. 

The league is in a continuous state of evolution. The 49ers are essentially rotating defensive linemen around Nick Bosa over the last three years. The Chiefs have been doing the same around Chris Jones" data-toggle="modal" data-target="#player-pop-up" href="/nfl_player_news/Chris_Jones/">Chris Jones. Unless one of these teams truly believes one of these edge defenders is a legit and elite stud guy, pass-rushers can be had throughout free agency. 

Players like Leonard Floyd, Khalil Mack, Bradley Chubb, Jadeveon Clowney, they’re all still viable. I’m not knocking any of these rookies or particularly fond of every aging pass rusher, just explaining why I’ve brought some of them down to the 20s as NFL teams seem more content to buy a band-aid than draft a potential project.

27. Arizona (via HOU): Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri
28. Buffalo: Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
29. Detroit Lions: Jer'Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
30. Baltimore: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
31. San Francisco: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston
32. Kansas City: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

Some might believe DeJean is closer to the 12-15 range, but I believe he’s a bit too one-dimensional. Love him playing downhill and in short zones. But I just don’t know about him playing man coverage. I think he’s a very team-specific player who will want to use him as an extra linebacker or box safety type to start his career. 

At Virginia Tech back in the day (I’m an alum), they used what they called a whip linebacker, who was sort of a nickel corner, outside linebacker, strong side of the field type. I’m not an X’s and O’s guru so forgive my oversimplifications. It’s just I don’t see DeJean as a pure corner, pure safety or pure nickel so Buffalo makes the most sense to me as they’re really resetting their defensive backfield and DeJean’s versatility would be a big asset as they redefine who they are.

My favorite prospect in this group is Newton. I don’t believe he’s the second coming and there’s a reason he falls down toward the bottom of the first. However, I love the way he gets off blocks, fights with his off-arm, churns with his legs. Eating up space, occupying blockers, that’s the meat and potatoes of a great defensive tackle. Newton’s tape shows he can do that.

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