Way Too Early Fantasy Football Busts: Post-Draft Thoughts on De'Von Achane, Kyler Murray, Trey McBride and Stefon Diggs

More like never too early, am I right? Taking the late-spring temperature of some possible fantasy football busts for the 2024 NFL season.

"Busts? Talk about busts??? You kiddin' me? Busts?" Sorry, I'm doing my best to imitate the infamous Jim Mora "playoffs?" press conference moment. Is it too early to talk about busts? It probably is since so much can happen between now and the end of summer when most fantasy drafts occur.

From my experience, conversations about fantasy busts are just that - a conversation. If you're making firm draft day decisions based on articles written in May, you're crazy.

However, there is a pulse to fantasy football. And it's important to take a feel of that pulse as player values ebb and flow through the offseason.

Earlier this week, I offered up four "way too early" fantasy football sleepers. Now, it's time to bring you some "way too early" busts, with the caveat that busts don't mean a player will have a terrible year. Like dad told us, he's not mad, he's disappointed. Busts are disappointments. Put another way, the "bust" term just means a player who will fall short of the production expected based on their average draft position.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

This is more of a dynasty bust because, for 2024 redraft, you can live with Murray. But I'm a well-known Murray hater. Hate is a strong word - I just can't take a grown man with that hairstyle seriously. All jokes aside, I prefer quarterbacks who don't need to rely so heavily on creating plays outside the pocket.

Inevitably, all quarterbacks eventually have to play in the pocket. And I don't believe Murray is capable and consistent enough to play the game straight up when he's forced to do so, especially with defenses so focused on taking away the deep ball. 

Last season, Murray finished as the QB9 in points per game. That said, Justin Fields was the QB13 in PPG, so let's remember that fantasy success rarely matches real-life or team success. 

This is where the rubber meets the road. Murray is perfectly capable of scoring points for your fantasy team. However, I don't believe he has any real future as a starter in the league. 

This diatribe against Murray is also an indictment of the Arizona Cardinals' inability to field a half-decent product for decades. And I'm including that fluke 2009 season with Kurt Warner, where they went 9-7 and lost Super Bowl 43 to the Steelers.

I digress. Arizona added Marvin Harrison Jr., so they've lucked into a generational wide receiver prospect like Larry Fitzgerlad before him. I understand how many will view that favorably. It's window dressing. This isn't a good football team.

They're a team that will be playing from behind often, so there's going to be plenty of garbage-time fantasy points available to feed on. I just don't believe Murray will last much longer.

De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Anybody with two eyeballs loves Achane. The speedster lit it up to start the 2023 season. In Weeks 2 to 4, he collected 518 combined yards and seven touchdowns.

The problem is that was basically his whole year. Achane finished with 190.7 PPR fantasy points. In that three-game span, he scored 91.8 points, which is a hair over 48% of his total. I love a big-play back as much as the next guy, but a running back needs consistency.

Again, after those three huge games, Achane missed five of his next six games. I don't view that as a coincidence. I'm not going to argue that you should consider Achane a bust because he's injury-prone. I don't really believe in labeling guys that way.

But, give me 15 points every week from a running back instead of a running back who puts up 40 one week and then disappears for a month. 

Achane wasn't used consistently or given reliable touches in the second half of the season. Maybe that changes, but the Dolphins view Raheem Mostert more as their daily driver.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans

While we're all patting the Texans on the back for their big moves this offseason, I have a contrarian view of Diggs.

First of all, I love Diggs. I'm a Virginia Tech alum and we recruited him coming out of high school. Though we had no shot, I knew he would be special after he flourished at the University of Maryland. 

That said, I got off the Diggs bandwagon before last season. I recommended to my readers, all three of you, to unload him from your dynasty rosters. I'm a big believer in getting out a year early.

Diggs didn't miss a beat last year, posting his sixth consecutive 1,000-yard season and fourth-straight year with 100 or more receptions.

With all due respect to Gabe Davis and Khalil Shakir, the Texans current top two wideouts - Nico Collins and Tank Dell - are light years ahead.

In fact, Houston also has Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, John Metchie III and Robert Woods on the roster. While Diggs is the best receiver on this team, there's just a lot more competition for targets. 

Diggs finished 2023 as the WR10 and WR15 by average points, while Collins and Dell were the WR6 and WR16 by average.

We may eventually reach a point where the entire fantasy community is down on Diggs, and his value turns around. For now, it's safe to assume his production will be neutered in an offense that doesn't flow through him.

Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals

McBride had a solid year, maybe even a great year, within the context of rookie tight ends. Collecting 81 receptions for 825 yards with three touchdowns on 106 targets is no small feat. 

My concern comes from McBride's high ranking at his position. I see him often ranked as the No. 3 tight end, which feels high. We're at an inflection point with tight ends. The Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz era is winding down. Young bucks like Sam LaPorta, McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Jake Ferguson and so on are on the come-up. 

That's all well and good. We've just been here before with tight ends, and I'd rather wait for the position. So if McBride is the TE3, his ADP is around 45. In Round 4, you're hopefully securing your second running back or second wide receiver. 

The gaps between tight ends feel smaller, meaning I am okay with missing the TE3 if I end up with the TE7. The difference on paper isn't that much. However, if you pass on an RB or WR in Round 4, a half dozen or more will come off the board by the next round.

We have to remember that unless you're in a TE-premium league, you only need one tight end. You'll want at least two good running backs and three good wide receivers. 

So, what does all this have to do with McBride's underperformance? It has nothing to do with talent. It has everything to do with roster construction and positional strategy within the game. McBride tips the scales in the wrong direction for me in that he hasn't quite proven himself, has a high ADP, and plays what I consider to be a secondary position in fantasy football.

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