NFL Future Bets: Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins Among the Teams with the Most Value to Win the AFC

With June almost here, we are about three months from the start of the NFL season. They are called the dog days of summer for a reason: We will soon have only regular season baseball going on…and on….and on.

The American sports fan needs more, and that’s one of the reasons the NFL is such a hot topic during this time despite nothing really happening. More players will change teams after June 1, both through trade and being released/signed, but most major additions are set, leaving plenty of time to evaluate each roster before real football starts.

I am going through some of the NFL future bets to identify where I see value. I recently looked at the division champion odds for each division in the AFC and the NFC, so it seemed right to continue onto conference champion odds.

We’ll start with the AFC and do this a little bit like Guess Who: I’ll use (admittedly arbitrary) criteria to eliminate teams until we get down to my best bets to win the conference. This is all opinion, and you might not agree with some (or most, or any) of my choices, but I tried giving my reasoning in each section.

Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of May 27.

Teams that can’t win (probably)

Denver Broncos +7000

New England Patriots +9000

It’s tough to say any team couldn’t possibly win big, but it just seems so implausible that some squads could make a run. Unless the payout is impossibly high, there’s no value in putting a bet on a team that almost definitely can’t win the conference.

Denver and New England both have such a dearth of talent across the roster that their only chance of making a big jump is if their rookie quarterback steps onto the field looking like a star, as C.J. Stroud did in Houston last season. I’m not expecting that from either Drake Maye or Bo Nix.

Teams with injury concerns

New York Jets +1300

Indianapolis Colts +2500

Every NFL team has injury concerns. I could put at least half the teams here for one reason or another. These two have different circumstances, though, in which one or more players staying healthy could be the tipping point.

With Indianapolis, I’m focused solely on Anthony Richardson. The Colts have a solid roster, and much will ride on their young quarterback returning and excelling. He showed flashes in his short debut season, especially using his legs. After suffering multiple injuries and appearing in only four games as a rookie, though, Richardson will have to find the line between running the ball and protecting his body.

The Jets are littered with high-profile players who have high-profile injury issues. Aaron Rodgers is the most obvious and most important. If he can return and look something like his old self, New York could compete. Anything less likely leaves them below the level of a playoff team.

Even if Rodgers stays on the field, Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses, Breece Hall and more have missed significant portions of time in the recent past. With so many important players returning from injury and/or trying to stay on the field, there’s too much that can go wrong for me to consider the Jets.

Teams with too many quarterback questions

Pittsburgh Steelers +2500

Las Vegas Raiders +4500

Tennessee Titans +6000

The Steelers and Titans have solid rosters surrounding uncertainty under center. The Raiders have high-level talent but not as much depth as the other two squads. All three currently feel below the level of contention unless their passers play at consistently high levels.

Pittsburgh has the most upside with a former Super Bowl champion (Russell Wilson) and a top-11 pick still on his rookie contract (Justin Fields) both joining the team to surely upgrade on the play of Kenny Pickett. Fields taking over and putting his physical skills to use probably creates the highest ceiling for this team; it’s a lot to ask, but stranger things have happened.

Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby and a few others give the Raiders the ceiling of a playoff team if luck bounces their way and the starting quarterback plays at a reasonably high level. Whether it’s Aidan O'Connell or the newly signed Gardner Minshew, the winner of that QB training camp battle hasn’t shown that upside yet. Vegas doesn’t currently have the pieces to compete for the conference.

Will Levis looked like a star in his first action, throwing for 238 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 28-23 win. His other seven starts (excluding a six-attempt effort in Week 17) saw Levis average 222 yards with four total touchdowns and four interceptions. 

Rather than resetting, Tennessee added at least two new offensive line starters (including a first-round pick), an impact receiver in Calvin Ridley and a starting running back in Tony Pollard. This team can compete for the playoffs if Levis shows up looking like a franchise quarterback; more likely, he will experience more growing pains in his second season, and the team will have a low ceiling.

Too much too fast

Houston Texans +850

Jacksonville Jaguars +2100

Los Angeles Chargers +2100

Houston was the surprise of the league last season, making a jump from the second overall pick to a division championship. A new quarterback and head coach accompanied that improvement, making it easy to assume the Texans have found the pieces necessary to be regular contenders.

The Plexiglass Principle is a sports “rule” that says teams that make a big jump in one season usually decline the next. Most things usually go right in a winning season, so a team that previously struggled or was middling before jumping to the top of the league will have worse luck the next year and regress to the mean. This applies to the Texans and is reason to believe they might not be as good this season as in 2023.

The Jags finished 2022 on a roll and won a playoff game. Many expected them to dominate their division and compete for the Super Bowl last year, but an 8-3 start gave way to a 1-5 finish, causing Jacksonville to miss the playoffs.

Trevor Lawrence has played well in his short career but has been labeled as underwhelming because he entered the league with the expectation that he would be an immediate superstar. This is a young team with a lot of talent, but they are probably a few years away from true contention as Lawrence keeps developing and the rest of the team is built up.

Jim Harbaugh coming to town has caused some to think that the Chargers will turn things around right away. They have a good quarterback in place in Justin Herbert, but the team is light at multiple positions, most notably wide receiver. There are winning pieces, but LA has a lot of work to do before competing for the conference.

Teams with odds too short to hold great value

Kansas City Chiefs +370

Baltimore Ravens +490

These two are the most likely to win the AFC and are listed accordingly. So many things can go wrong, though. An injury to Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson would torpedo their team’s chances. 

Kansas City is coming off back-to-back Super Bowls and seemingly upgraded their talent in the offseason, though the loss of L'Jarius Sneed could loom large on a defense that carried the team for large portions of last season.

Baltimore was the top seed in the AFC and has the reigning MVP. They could have replicated KC’s Super Bowl run if a few things bounced their way, but instead the team is again hearing questions about whether they can break through.

Despite their obvious talent, so much can go wrong to cause any team to not win the conference. Even if everything goes right, maybe someone else is just better, as happened to the Ravens last year.

There’s not enough return for me to make either bet considering the amount of risk.

Teams with odds (barely) too short to hold great value

Cincinnati Bengals +700

Buffalo Bills +700

These two are tied for the third-best odds to win the conference. While they provide more of a return than the Chiefs or Ravens, the odds are still a little too short given the questions around each team.

The Bengals have Joe Burrow returning from wrist surgery; he’s had plenty of time to recover, so it’s reasonable to think he’ll be ready to go as soon as needed. While the Bengals played respectably in Burrow’s absence, the defense let the team down after multiple offseasons watching a lot of talent walk out the door.

Recent draft picks weren’t ready to take on big roles, and the defensive unit suffered as a result. The team is surely expecting improvement from those young guys, but I don’t see a ton of difference. There are too many questions for me to back Cincinnati with this bet.

Speaking of talent walking out the door, the Bills have been syphoned over the last few years. More than a lack of depth, the team has lost top-line talent. It’s reasonable to not overpay for a linebacker like Tremaine Edmunds, but they’ve lost top-line players at premium positions too.

Stefon Diggs and Tre'Davious White are on the backside of their careers and not worth the big contracts they once signed. That level of talent hasn’t been replaced, though, and it feels like the Bills don’t have the firepower to compete with the best.

Until seeing different, I’m a little down on Buffalo this year.

#2 Miami Dolphins +1200

The Dolphins have almost the same betting odds of winning the conference as the Jets; the GD Jets!!! Despite making the playoffs in each of the last two seasons, Miami didn’t look like contenders at the end of either year.

We can chalk 2022 up to injuries, but the Dolphins went from an offensive juggernaut in Week 3 (70 points against Denver) to scoring just seven points in the Wild Card Round against the Chiefs last year.

The weather was incredibly frigid, and the Chiefs had a phenomenal defense; Tyreek Hill was dealing with injury. There are excuses, but Miami didn’t look like they belonged on the field with Kansas City in the playoffs.

With uncertainty on every team in the AFC East, the Dolphins could win the division (and maybe top seed), meaning they would have home-field advantage for at least a game or two. This team’s top-level talent along with a decent return on the bet makes this one of my favorite AFC wagers.

#1 Cleveland Browns +2100

Cleveland’s roster is just way too good to have the same conference champion odds as the Chargers and significantly longer odds than the Jets. There isn’t a hole on the depth chart. The biggest questions will be around two pillars of the offense: Nick Chubb and Deshaun Watson.

Chubb suffered one of the gnarliest knee injuries you’ll ever see. (I’ve been resisting the urge to share the link, but here you go, sickos.) I thought his career might be over, but the news has been relatively positive. If he doesn’t make it back for the start of the season or takes time to get rolling, the team has a rotation of Jerome Ford, D'Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines to hold down the fort, a group that offers a little bit of everything.

This mostly comes down to Watson, though. He was a superstar in Houston before running into legal issues, and the team surely thought he would reach that level again when they traded three first-round picks for Watson and gave him a huge, fully guaranteed contract.

Even if he doesn’t find his Pro Bowl heights, Watson has an opportunity to lead a stacked team. He has used his legs effectively in the past and could help them efficiently run the ball until Chubb returns.

The spot on this list is all about the number next to Cleveland’s name. They aren’t likely to win the Super Bowl, but there is a reasonable scenario in which the Browns walk away champions: 

• Watson finds some of his old magic, the defense continues to dominate like they did last year, and the offensive line stays healthy
• Baltimore regresses from last season, the Bengals don’t bounce back and/or suffer more injuries, and Pittsburgh’s quarterback problems sink their playoff hopes
• The Chiefs coast through the regular season, again failing to secure the top seed, and the AFC South turns into a battle of middling teams who aren’t Super Bowl threats

The Browns could easily walk away with the top seed and not only get a first-round bye but also force everyone else to come win in Cleveland in the winter. It’s not the most likely scenario, but the Browns at these odds are my favorite bet for AFC Champions.