Fantasy Football Regression Candidates for 2024: Josh Allen, Kyren Williams, D.J. Moore and More

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen has been on top of the fantasy world as the QB1 overall for multiple years now. His big arm and ability to steamroll his way into the end zone has made him the ideal fantasy asset. However, this is the year we see him take a big step back. Not only did he lose his top two wideouts in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but the team didn't do a whole lot to fill the void they left on the outside.

Nagging injuries have also begun to take a toll on this massive quarterback. This includes banging up his shoulder, elbow and hand over the past couple of seasons. We've seen this story before with Cam Newton, who is a very similar player. This way of playing quarterback is unsustainable and it's why Newton fell off a cliff.

Allen isn't a good enough passer to maintain high-end value without his legs so cutting back on the running isn't an option. His legs are what make him special. Unfortunately, that will also lead to a steep decline at some point. His lack of weapons and wear and tear on his body will cause the start of his decline in 2024. He'll still be a QB1, however, don't be shocked if he is more of a mid-ranged QB1 falling out of the top four overall. 

Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

This isn't a huge knock on Love and we don't think he's going to decline as an actual NFL quarterback. With that said, we do believe he is going to come back down to earth as far as passing TDs go. He had the fantasy year he had in 2023 because he threw 32 TDs which was good enough for second-best in the league.

A big part of that was the struggle of the Packers' running backs to get into the end zone. The team added Josh Jacobs this season because they clearly want to alleviate that issue. With a regression in TDs and not a ton of value on the ground, it's hard to see him finishing as a top-five fantasy QB again this season.    

Running Backs

Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

I have made it clear I'm not a Blake Corum guy, however, I'm also not sold on Williams having the talent or durability to live up to the expectations he set last season. The volume is unsustainable and Corum will likely be used as a short-yardage back to vulture TDs.

In 2023, even with his carries being limited early in the season, he still ended up with 228 carries in just 12 games. A 5'9, 194-pound running back with an injury history will not be able to withstand that on a yearly basis. Last season, he finished as the RB2 on a PPG basis and RB6 overall. This season we see him as hovering right around the RB10 spot. 

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins

This is one of the easier regression predictions in fantasy football this season. Mostert is coming off a career year at 32 years old. He led the NFL in TDs and injuries forced is volume to increase drastically. For a player who has dealt with so many injuries at his age, it is a bit shocking he was able to play 15 games.

With young budding stars like De'Von Achane, Jaylen Wright and Chris Brooks eager for touches, it seems obvious that Mostert will take a step back. The fact that he also more than doubled his career high in TDs last year also seems like an impossible feat to repeat. Last year's RB2 overall will much more likely be just and RB2 this season or possibly even a flex option.  

Wide Receivers

Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

This is another guy who we think will be great and take a step forward as an NFL player but just won't be able to match what he did as a rookie in 2023. In 2023, he finished as the WR4 overall in fantasy football. Everything fell into place for him.

Nacua exploded onto the scene immediately and put up otherworldly numbers right out of the box with Cooper Kupp sidelined. However, when Kupp returned the consistent output took a hit. This isn't to say Nacua won't be a WR1 this season and still be great. With that said, we don't view him as a top-six fantasy wideout and would not draft him near the first round. 

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

Usually adding a potential huge upgrade at quarterback is a good thing and we aren't saying that it won't be for Moore. Even if Caleb Williams is a rookie, we are confident to say he is a much better passer than Justin Fields. When you consider that Moore finished as the WR6 last season with Fields and whatever backup the team ran out there, logic would say he's a lock to get better, not worse.

Nevertheless, that likely won't be the case. The team added a ton of weapons that you can make a case are every bit as good as Moore. The additions of Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and D'Andre Swift will eat away at Moore's targets.

Moore has already been wildly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis his whole career as a fantasy asset and that was without a ton of target competition at any point in his career. It will be a roller coaster ride for Moore owners this season with lower ups and more downs.