Fantasy Expectations for Second-Year NFL Running Backs: What are we Hoping to See from Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane and More

Running back is a position losing value every year. It’s a passing league, and as a result, backs have often fallen out of the first round of the draft and below the rest of their NFL brethren in contract numbers.

Two guys went in the first round in 2023, but we often see late-round guys perform just as well as the Day 1 and 2 players taken with the expectation to step into a starting role. Running back is one of the best positions to find those guys drafted late on Day 3 who can be contributors in both real and fantasy football.

Every rookie has the potential to be a part of the offense if things break right. Even fifth-round picks, like Puka Nacua, might be superstars. Then the games start, and we remember that it takes players time to adapt to the NFL, whether that means adding/dropping weight, learning more complicated schemes, or just getting better with practice reps.

I am looking at the players drafted last year at each fantasy football position (quarterback) and focusing on their expectations this year versus their rookie season. Sometimes, that means a bigger role; others see their previously high hopes deflated after struggling during their first season.

First Round

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

These guys have about the same story: Early draft picks who stepped onto the field with big expectations and have even more expected of them in Year 2. Robinson has a clearer path to a workhorse role, with only Tyler Algeier around to compete for rushes. Algeier doesn’t catch the ball much, and Robinson is the better player, so he has the look of a top-five fantasy player.

Gibbs shares the backfield with David Montgomery, a player who ran for 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. It would make sense that the highly drafted Gibbs would take on a bigger role in his second year, but Montgomery excelled, and Jamaal Williams had a career season in the same power back role in 2022.

Gibbs will see the ball plenty, but he is not going to dominate touches the way Christian McCaffrey does or Robinson probably will.

Second Round

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet was drafted onto a team that already had a top running back, Kenneth Walker III, who had a 1,000-yard rookie season. With only backup work available, Charbonnet was held under 500 yards with just one touchdown.

Entering his second season, not much has changed. Walker essentially repeated his first year, and he caught almost as many passes as Charbonnet, not giving the latter a niche to sneak into. Charbonnet’s value is contingent on an injury in front of him, making him a late-round fantasy pick.

Third Round

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

There was hope Miller would stand out at the beginning of his rookie season while Alvin Kamara was suspended: Instead, Miller gained 34 yards on nine carries in the one game he played without the veteran and only reached double-digit carries twice.

He is third on the depth chart behind Kamara and Jamaal Williams, so Miller needs at least one injury in front of him before he is on the fantasy radar.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

Spears looked to be in line for the starting job when it was announced that Derrick Henry would leave in free agency. Then the team signed Tony Pollard at a starter’s salary, seemingly pushing Spears back down the pecking order.

Spears caught 52 passes in his rookie season, a number Pollard never came close to until last year. The ability to contribute in the passing game will get Spears on the field, but he is a late-round fantasy pick if Pollard is healthy.

De'Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

This is a tough one: Achane had record-setting efficiency on a small sample of runs and suffered multiple injuries that limited him to 130 touches in 11 games. The injury concern will be there until he proves he can go a full season; Miami also likes to cycle running backs in and out of the lineup, not giving anyone a true starter’s workload many games.

Raheem Mostert is still around, coming off a 1,000-yard, 18-rushing touchdown season that was by far his best. Mostert is 32 and likely to start fading, but Achane is too risky to be a top running back pick.

Achane should be seen as a boom-or-bust player with big upside. That’s too risky for me when he’s going in the first four rounds, but some will see him as a possible RB1.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

Bigsby was a big name in the preseason after showing flashes, most importantly with the thought that he would be the guy running in short yardage situations and near the goal line. He scored two touchdowns during the first three weeks but never found the end zone again. He was also inefficient, gaining just 132 yards on 50 carries (he had one catch for six yards).

Maybe he will find that role in his second year; Travis Etienne is multi-talented, but he struggles in short yardage, a possible strength for Bigsby. Until he shows it, though, Bigsby is another late-round lottery ticket waiting for an injury or luck to fall his way.

Fourth Round

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

Johnson was a dark horse candidate to take over Chicago’s backfield as a rookie, but he was limited to about 350 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Rather than trust him to step into a feature role, the Bears signed D'Andre Swift early in free agency to lead the way.

Johnson is another late-round flier who has lost all his fantasy buzz.

Fifth Round

• Israel Abanikanda, New York Jets
• Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
• Eric Gray, New York Giants
• Evan Hull, Indianapolis Colts

No one here other than Brown had more than 70 rushing yards or 113 total yards. Brown hit 179 and 335, respectively, and was the only fifth-round running back to make any impact.

Each player has at least one guy in front of him on the depth chart and no clear path to volume. Cincinnati traded Joe Mixon to the Texans, but they signed Zack Moss in free agency, keeping Brown in a backup role.

It’s the same story for Gray, as the Giants responded to the loss of Saquon Barkley by signing Devin Singletary to take over the RB1 spot. Abanikanda and Hull are afterthoughts, needing multiple injuries in front of them for a chance to play.

Brown and Gray are late-round fliers, but no one here figures to be a major fantasy player early in the season.

Sixth Round

• Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders
• Deuce Vaughn, Dallas Cowboys
• Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams

All three of these guys have multiple backs in front of them and no clear path to fantasy relevancy. None of them should be drafted in fantasy leagues.

Seventh Round

• DeWayne McBride, Minnesota Vikings
• Lew Nichols III, Green Bay Packers
• Kenny McIntosh, Seattle Seahawks

Repeat the last section here. None of these three are going to play a role without multiple injuries.