Wait on Your Fantasy Quarterback: Why Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff and More are Valuable Fantasy Players

This started as an article about Jared Goff. He has finished 10th and seventh in QB fantasy points over the past two seasons but is ranked 20th in ESPN pre-season fantasy rankings (though FantasySP and Yahoo have him a more respectable 13th). I set out to argue why Goff was a better fantasy option than some of those near and ahead of him, but I noticed something: there are a lot of good fantasy football quarterbacks.

Soon I was looking at everyone ranked outside of the top eight and seeing all kinds of reasons to wait on a quarterback. Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert are outside the top 10 at the position. Washington rookie Jayden Daniels will enter the league as one of the top dynamic rushing threats and is ranked around 15th.

It eventually became a crusade against the top QBs: Don’t spend a third-round pick on even the best quarterbacks because there are so many guys to choose from later. Quarterbacks score the most fantasy points, especially in standard leagues. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert were the only top-20 standard scorers in 2023 who were non-quarterbacks. Points are easier to find at QB than at any other position.

Let’s run through the fantasy tiers of quarterback, and instead of breaking down players and their benefits, I am going to be looking at reasons to wait and choose a quarterback later. On top of some “negatives” (this is all relative, they are great players), I will look at some of the skill players available around those spots who could be chosen instead.

Each player’s listed ranking is from FantasySP’s standard list.

Top Guys

Josh Allen No. 23

Jalen Hurts No. 32

Patrick Mahomes No. 33

Lamar Jackson No. 38

Running quarterbacks are the only ones who should be considered in the top tier. All these guys meet that criterion except for Mahomes, who is useful with his legs but doesn’t do a lot in the designed run game, producing more on scrambles.

Mahomes was drafted as a top-three QB last year alongside Allen and Hurts. While the latter two finished the year first and second, respectively, Mahomes ended the season as QB8. That’s devastating for anyone who drafted Mahomes, missing out on a fourth-round skill player while taking the eighth-best quarterback.

It’s not that Mahomes isn’t great; it’s just that real greatness and fantasy greatness aren’t always the same thing. Mahomes did more with less, carrying one of the worst receiving corps in the league to success. It deflated his fantasy numbers to not have a guy like Hill, but it didn’t stop them from winning big.

Rushing yards are the great stabilizer. If Derek Carr throws for 175 yards and one touchdown, he scores 11 fantasy points. If Jackson does the same thing, he’s adding an average of 50 yards per game on the ground and a touchdown every three games, adding another seven points on average to his total. It’s amazing how much better 18 points looks than 11 when checking your QB’s fantasy score.

The downside is injury. The more a player runs, the more he gets hit, the more chances to get hurt and/or let wear-and-tear build up. Jackson played every game last season except for a meaningless Week 18, but he appeared in only 12 games each of the previous two years. Allen and Hurts have been pretty durable, but it only takes one hit.

Every player here is great, but there is better fantasy value at the skill positions:

• RBs: Isiah Pacheco, Rachaad White, Kenneth Walker, Joe Mixon
• WRs: Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., Nico Collins, Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp…

Those are some of the guys you would be passing up to draft one of the top-tier quarterbacks. It’s much easier to replace the fantasy production of Hurts than it is to replace one of these guys late in the season, making this level of player the most valuable commodity.

The Next Tier

C.J. Stroud No. 46

Anthony Richardson No. 51

Joe Burrow No. 61

Dak Prescott No. 70

Kyler Murray No. 72

Jordan Love No. 74

Richardson and Murray stand out as the running guys. Murray missed the first half of the season with injury, and Richardson went on IR after appearing in just four games, showing some of the dangers of a passer who relies on his legs.

Stroud, Burrow, Prescott and Love all fall in the Mahomes category as QBs who live and die in fantasy with their passing production. Each can make plays on the ground but will derive most of his fantasy value through the air.

Burrow has ended multiple seasons on IR, including 2023. Prescott is currently being questioned by his own team, who are hesitant to give him a big extension. Love has only been elite for half a season. He looked great, but there will probably be some regression and inconsistency over a longer stretch.

Stroud has even more weapons after bursting onto the scene as a rookie, and some will look at him as a potential fantasy superstar. That might end up being his fate; it’s also possible (maybe even likely) that he throws a few more interceptions, has a little rougher luck, and doesn’t take a huge jump like some second-year quarterbacks. Temper expectations a little bit.

No quarterback here is appreciably more valuable than the next tier. They are better players, sure, but their fantasy value doesn’t match up with their draft status relative to guys below them.

• RBs: Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, Raheem Mostert
• WRs: George Pickens, Tee Higgins, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk
• TEs: George Kittle, Kyle Pitts

The skill guys here admittedly aren’t as good as the previous group, but neither are the quarterbacks. These players make up the heart of your team, and loading up with WR1s like Pickens and McLaurin is great value in the middle rounds. This is also the last group of starting backs before getting to time-share guys.

The Meat of the Matter

Brock Purdy No. 97

Caleb Williams No. 98

Jared Goff No. 104

Tua Tagovailoa No. 107

Jayden Daniels No. 110

Justin Herbert No. 114

Trevor Lawrence No. 117

This is where I see the most value. I talked about Goff above, and Purdy was another guy I had in mind when starting this exercise. He finished sixth among quarterbacks in fantasy last year, and from Weeks 13-18 in 2022 (the time in which Purdy was the starter) he ranked ninth in fantasy points.

It doesn’t matter if you think it’s him or the system: Purdy has been a starting fantasy quarterback since he took over. Chances are he will be a top-10 guy again at the end of this season as nothing has really changed in San Francisco.

Tua, Herbert and Lawrence have all been projected for huge things at times in the past but fell short of major expectations. They are all still young and have been good enough to sign big extensions with their teams. On the right weeks, they will put up big numbers.

The consistency doesn’t seem to be there for “weekly starter” status, though. Herbert was drafted as a top-five guy last year with thoughts he would break out. He didn’t, and the team now projects to move to a more run-focused offense. Tua’s highs are high, but there are big lows against tougher defenses.

Lawrence and Williams have something in common, both entering the league as “The Next Big Thing,” expected to play like a superstar immediately. Lawrence didn’t do it, but it was an unfair standard. Williams probably won’t reach that level as a rookie either. It’s hard to trust a rookie until we see them at NFL speed.

My favorite quarterback fantasy pick is Daniels. I loved Richardson last season because of the running factor. Richardson was a top-five QB in two of the three weeks in which he played a full game, using his legs to rack up yards and touchdowns in the process.

Daniels is in the same situation in Washington this season. He enters a losing team but has some good pieces around him, including McLaurin and several newcomers brought in to help Daniels’ transition. Most importantly, Daniels will almost surely use his legs both in the designed run game and while scrambling, accumulating fantasy points in the process.

Everything will go through Daniels the same way it did Richardson, but Daniels is ranked 60 spots lower on the draft board.

• RBs: Brian Robinson, Trey Benson, Tyjae Spears, Blake Corum, Ezekiel Elliott, Gus Edwards
• WRs: Keon Coleman, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Courtland Sutton, Christian Watson, Curtis Samuel
• TEs: Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth

We’re getting to running backs in time-shares, second and third receivers, and middling/inconsistent tight ends at this point. Choosing a quarterback in this area doesn’t rob you of the same level of talent at the skill positions as it does in the fourth or fifth round.

Old Faithfuls?

Kirk Cousins No. 127

Matthew Stafford No. 128

Aaron Rodgers No. 129

Can the old guys still ball? We saw it from Cousins and Stafford at times last season. Cousins and Rodgers are both coming back from major Achilles injuries, though, and it remains to be seen what we can expect upon their return to live action. Stafford has had his share of injuries as well, giving everyone here some risk.

Counting on any of these passers alone is foolish. To draft them as part of a rotation to play on the right weeks is sensible if that’s how things play out. Keeping just one quarterback and playing the streaming game would probably be just as valuable, though, while freeing up a spot on your roster.

It’s not necessary to list the skill players at this point and beyond. They are bench players/lottery tickets who will fill out your squad and probably be dumped at some point when you need to pick up another tight end or defense.

Dart Throws

Deshaun Watson No. 147

Baker Mayfield No. 152

Etc. Etc. Etc. You could put a lot of guys in this category, but these two were ranked near 150, which seemed like a good stopping point. Anyone taken at this point or later should be part of a rotation with hope for a huge jump in production. Mayfield played well against the bad teams last year but didn’t fare so well against good defenses. He’s a good streamer play on the right weeks.

Some may hold out hope for Watson to be a weekly fantasy starter both because he is a running guy and because he was an elite fantasy player in the past. He hasn’t come near that level since returning from almost two years away during his suspension, and it’s unlikely he will ever play like that again. There’s a small hope, though, because of his previous highs.