Analyzing ADP Quarterback Data: Are QBs Like C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy, Jayden Daniels and More Being Drafted Early, Late or Just Right?

As the NFL regular season nears, fantasy football drafts will pick up. With that in mind, I thought it’d be a good idea to start analyzing Average Draft Position data.

We’ll start with the quarterback position and cover running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in separate stories. Let’s dive in!

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The Best of the Best

Four quarterbacks have separated themselves early in draft season. Those quarterbacks are Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

All four of those quarterbacks are going between picks 22-38, with Allen (around pick 22) on the high end and Jackson (around pick 38) on the low end. 

In my Bills’ fantasy preview, I wrote about how I liked Allen in that top group of fantasy quarterbacks because of his rushing ability, but also was leery of taking him first because of the lack of proven pass catchers on the Buffalo roster. 

Last year, Allen had 15 rushing touchdowns, and while he’s capable of replicating that rushing success, I just don’t see it happening. I’m taking him inside the top four QBs, but prefer him third (and maybe fourth depending on when I’m drafting).

Hurts had a bit of a down season in 2023. A lot of his fantasy value came from short rushing touchdowns, and he threw 15 interceptions (as many as he had in the previous two seasons combined).

I expect a bounceback season from Hurts in 2024, and think he’s got a solid chance to be the top fantasy QB by the end of the season. I’d prefer him first or second at the position.

Mahomes also had a down season by his lofty standards, but did enough in the postseason to emerge a champion again. His pass catchers were not great a season ago, and there’s more talent in the room this season, so I expect Mahomes to be back to his old ways.

It’s also worth noting that Mahomes failed to rush for a score in 2023 despite having 389 rushing yards. A couple scores, along with a big passing season, should have Mahomes vying for the top fantasy QB slot. He is the other fantasy QB I’d consider taking first, but think he definitely needs to be at least the second one picked.

Jackson was named MVP after accounting for over nearly 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns and only throwing seven picks. He’ll be in the conversation for fantasy QB1, but the addition of Derrick Henry scares me off Jackson.

I still think Jackson deserves to be among the first QBs taken, but prefer him either third or fourth, not first or second. His past injury concerns also do just enough to talk me off Jackson.

The Next Trio

C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow are the next three QBs taken, going between picks 48-63. There’s some risk involved with each guy.

Stroud was fantastic in his rookie season, and has some great playmakers around him now, but we still only have one year to base things off of. He was just inside the top 10 at the position last year, so drafting him this early is expecting a decent sized sophomore season jump. 

I like Stroud a bunch, but would prefer him a round or so later than he’s currently going. I feel like fantasy owners missing on the top four QBs are panicking a bit and reaching on Stroud right now.

Richardson only got four games in during his rookie season. He looked great in the couple games he finished, but injury concerns are definitely a concern going into his second season. 

I try not to base my fantasy judgments on past injury concerns (especially not after one season), and Richardson’s rushing ability is more appealing to me than just what Stroud could do as a passer. So, I prefer Richardson over Stroud, but again, think he’s going too early in fantasy drafts.

Burrow played in 10 games a season ago, so he’s got some injury concerns now too. He was good in the previous two seasons and has enough playmakers around him still to be one of the better fantasy QBs. I’d take Burrow at his ADP, which is where I’d also prefer Stroud or Richardson.

Three NFC Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Jordan Love are the next three QBs taken, going between picks 71-75 in fantasy drafts so far.

Prescott had arguably the best season of his career in 2023, accounting for 39 total touchdowns and 4,758 total yards and just nine picks. The team’s offense should be pretty similar, but I don’t envision Prescott taking care of the ball as well, so I don’t think he’ll be a top-five fantasy QB again. I like him near his current ADP, and ahead of Love and Murray because of a few more years of experience.

Murray was solid in his eight games played a season ago. If we were to double those numbers, he’s got a chance to finish as a top-five fantasy option. Injury concerns are there, but again, I try not to let that persuade me. Murray could end up being a major steal, but I think his ADP and placement among all QBs is fair for the time being.

Love had some ups and downs during his first year as a starter. He ended up with over 4,000 passing yards and 36 total touchdowns. With a year under his belt, many are expecting better numbers in year two, and I am as well. I like him around his ADP and at his overall QB placement as well.

Bunched Up QBs

Brock Purdy, Caleb Williams, Jared Goff, Tua Tagovailoa, Jayden Daniels, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence are all going between picks 97-120.

Purdy was just outside the top five among fantasy QBs last season, and has a pretty similar team around him (at least for now - Brandon Aiyuk trade pending). If Aiyuk gets dealt, Purdy’s ADP seems fair to me, but there’s also a ton of value in getting Purdy here.

Williams is the first rookie quarterback to appear on the ADP list. In my Bears’ fantasy writeup, I suggested taking Williams a couple rounds later. It’s hard for me to trust a rookie as my QB1, and I’ve never been super high on Williams. If I took Williams, I’m targeting a proven QB also.

Goff is a fantasy QB I like this season, especially at his current ADP. In my Lions’ writeup, I said Goff could be a major draft steal, and could be a player you start every week this season. Sign me up.

Tagovailoa just missed out on a top-10 fantasy spot last season. He’s another value pick near his ADP, and could be even better than last season if he can cut down on his 14 interceptions.

Daniels is the second rookie QB on the ADP list, and another passing and rushing threat. That gives him some good fantasy value, especially this late in a draft. He’s a good second option.

Herbert is being pretty undervalued in my eyes. He got 13 games in last season, but still threw for over 3,000 yards and 20 scores. The offense around him is not nearly as good as the past, so I don't anticipate his ADP moving much before the season. I still think Herbert will be startable most weeks, so he presents great value this late in a draft.

Lawrence threw for 4,000 and 20-plus touchdowns for a second straight season, but also threw 14 picks. There’s some new faces on the offense, so I think Lawrence’s ADP is fair. He’ll be a starting option from time to time.

The Veteran Trio

Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the last three quarterbacks I want to discuss. They are going between picks 129-137.

Cousins and Rodgers are coming off major injuries, while Stafford also has some injury concerns over the past few seasons. When healthy, these can be some of the better QBs in the league, but their primes have also passed, so they are more just streaming options than every-week starters.

They are still decent options late in drafts in case they can stay healthy all season. I’d view them as higher upside fantasy QB2s and maybe guys to protect a rookie like Williams or Daniels with. 

The Streaming Options

Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Will Levis, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, Derek Carr and Daniel Jones should be among some of the streaming options available at the start of the season. The Minnesota, Denver, New England, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas starters will also join this group.

Any of these QBs could get hot during the season, but most are just options during bye weeks or if several starters go down. We’ll see if any of these guys see their ADPs go up as the season nears.