Fantasy Football Impact of Injury to Christian McCaffrey | Should You Target Elijah Mitchell?
Discussing the injury news for Christian McCaffrey and what it means for his fantasy outlook, along with a look at the team's backup options.
It isn’t really fantasy football season until we get some big-time injuries during training camp and the preseason.
Well, the first big injury has happened with San Francisco 49ers’ Christian McCaffrey dealing with a calf strain, so here we go. Let’s discuss the injury to McCaffrey and what it means from a fantasy football perspective.
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The Injury News
The injury was reported Tuesday afternoon. The good news is that it’s not expected to be a long-term injury, but it should keep McCaffrey out of preseason games and some practices.
This is obviously headline news in the fantasy football world because of what McCaffrey brings to the table.
In 16 games last season, McCaffrey rushed for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns. He caught 67 of his 83 targets for an additional 564 yards and seven scores.
That kind of season means you are in the running for the top pick in the next season’s fantasy drafts. McCaffrey is the consensus No. 1 pick, but does this injury change things?
McCaffrey’s Fantasy Outlook
While McCaffrey is expected to be out of all preseason games and a couple weeks of practices, he is expected back for the start of the regular season. He’s dealt with his share of injuries over his career, but when he’s gotten back on the field, he’s been his usual dominant self.
Sure, a training camp injury is not exactly great for a player who is going first overall in fantasy drafts, but I actually view this as a positive thing.
It’s not a big-time injury and it isn’t going to keep him out for any regular season games (as of now). I’d rather a star player like McCaffrey not play in the preseason at all and suit up when the games start to matter.
Him missing a couple weeks of practice isn’t ideal either, but every touch and time out on the field is wear and tear on an NFL player’s body. Getting to sit out the next couple weeks might actually work in McCaffrey’s favor as the season rolls along.
The only thing this injury says to me is that the Niners might ease McCaffrey into things once the regular season begins. Maybe that means 5-10 less touches in week one, but then having a full workload soon after.
I don’t think this injury is enough to really alter the preseason projections for McCaffrey. It also helps that he’s a threat as a running back and pass catcher, so the team could lighten his load as an RB but still get him involved as a pass catcher. Whatever the team ends up doing, I wouldn’t fret too much over the injury right now.
What it does bring into question is whether or not one of the Niners’ backup RBs are worth drafting now.
Our charts show Elijah Mitchell, the team’s backup running back, as rostered in just 27% of leagues. You can expect that number to grow before the end of the preseason, but it might return to a similar percentage if McCaffrey is cleared for the first week of the regular season.
In deeper leagues is where Mitchell’s fantasy stock gets the biggest boost. He’s already a decent option being a backup to a star like McCaffrey, and the injury concern certainly helps his cause a touch. Don’t expect Mitchell to become a fantasy star, but if McCaffrey were to be hampered throughout the season, or miss a couple games, Mitchell could be worth streaming.
If McCaffrey were to miss time, it’s possible the Niners could also have Jordan Mason or rookie Isaac Guerendo get a few touches a game. It’s probably worth tracking those two during the preseason to see if there’s a potential role for either guy.
Closing Thoughts
Overall, I really don’t see the McCaffrey injury altering too much from a fantasy perspective.
McCaffrey might see a slight dip in his numbers as a result, but if the initial reports of the injury are accurate, I expect him to be full go right away.
Mitchell and the other backs on the team have a chance to be fantasy relevant, but that likely would only be if McCaffrey misses regular season games. He’ll be the workhorse if he’s healthy enough to be.
For now, the injury shouldn’t alter when McCaffrey is taken in a draft either. Even banged up, McCaffrey still has the potential to be the top-scoring player in fantasy football.
Mitchell might get a slight bump in his ADP (currently he’s RB56 and going around pick 176) over the next couple weeks, but I’d still treat him as a streaming option instead of a draftable player. Guerendo and Mason are options in deeper leagues and dynasties, but they won’t be playable unless McCaffrey is out, so they are more depth options and lottery tickets than usable fantasy players this season.
FantasySP will continue to monitor the situation and provide updates if anything changes.
