Fantasy Football Impact of Injury to J.J. McCarthy | How does Injury Affect Fantasy Outlooks for Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones and More?
Discussing the injury news for J.J. McCarthy and what it means for his long-term fantasy outlook, along with a look at how the injury affects the fantasy outlooks for his teammates this season.
There haven't been too many season-ending injuries in the NFL in the early preseason. That changed, as Minnesota Vikings’ rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been lost for the season.
Let’s take a look at the injury and then how it affects McCarthy going forward and the rest of the Minnesota offensive playmakers this season.
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McCarthy Out with Torn Meniscus
McCarthy was injured during the team’s first preseason game on Saturday. After undergoing surgery, it was revealed that his torn meniscus would keep him out for the entire 2024 season.
?t=hkzjnAFkORVEFmlo4MZq_g&s=19It’s a big blow for the Vikings, who took McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He was competing with Sam Darnold for the starting job.
McCarthy was 11-of-17 for 188 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the team’s first preseason game. He added two rushing attempts, gaining 18 yards.
McCarthy’s Future Fantasy Outlook
With McCarthy out for the season, he should be avoided in redraft fantasy leagues (hopefully you haven’t drafted yet). He’s still an option in dynasty leagues, though his stock took a hit by having to miss his entire rookie season.
McCarthy is just 21 years old, so while the injury knocks out a season of development, it’s not a massive blow to his NFL career. It does mean he’ll miss out on practice reps and probably some regular season game action (I’m assuming he would have played at some point this season).
As long as there are no setbacks in his recovery, McCarthy could very well be the Vikings’ quarterback to open the 2025 season. That was the plan even going into this season, and the injury shouldn’t stop McCarthy from being able to accomplish that.
I’m never been a huge fan of having rookie quarterbacks play in year one (although I’ve been spoiled as a Packers’ fan), so McCarthy can now sit back and observe for a full season before trying to land the starting role in 2025.
Knock McCarthy down a couple pegs in rookie drafts or startup dynasty leagues, but he’s still got plenty of long-term fantasy value, so don’t bail on him completely.
Sam Darnold Fantasy Outlook
With McCarthy out, Darnold should be named the team’s starting quarterback in short order.
Darnold has made 56 starts across his 66 games played in his six-year NFL career. He’s 21-35 in those starts, and hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2021.
He has completed 59.7% of his passes during his career. Darnold has 63 touchdowns, but also 56 interceptions. He’s a bit of a rushing threat, with 760 yards and 13 touchdowns across 209 total attempts.
The overall numbers for Darnold are not great, but he’s at least a serviceable starting option for the Vikings. Most fantasy owners were down on the other Minnesota playmakers regardless of if Darnold or McCarthy was the starter, and I’m not sure the injury to McCarthy affects all that much. It takes away the thought that McCarthy could possibly shine and positively impact his teammates, but that’s about it.
You can now safely draft Darnold in fantasy drafts, but I’d only consider it in deeper leagues and two-QB formats. He’s a better option than some teams will trot out there, but I also wouldn’t want to have to start Darnold week after week.
Other Minnesota Fantasy Outlooks
Justin Jefferson is still the star of the Vikings’ offense. Jordan Addison (suspension maybe looming?) and Jalen Nailor are the other projected starters. Aaron Jones is the new RB1, with Ty Chandler as his top backup. Tight end T.J. Hockenson is still working his way back from injury, so Josh Oliver likely opens the season as the team’s starter.
Jefferson played with below-average quarterbacks when Kirk Cousins was out last season and still put up solid numbers, so I’m not super worried about Jefferson’s fantasy outlook. I already said I thought Jefferson was going too early in fantasy drafts and would now prefer him at pick 10 or later for sure. I expect his ADP to drop as the regular season nears.
Addison has some off-the-field issues, so drafting him was never super comfortable for fantasy owners. He’s currently going around pick 88. After the McCarthy injury news, I’d drop Addison another round or so, taking him close to pick 100, or not at all.
Nailor is a deep league fantasy option, but someone who probably shouldn’t be drafted in any league types. He could become a streaming option in really deep leagues if Jefferson is hurt or if Addison gets suspended, but I really doubt it.
Jones gets a little fantasy boost from the injury news, but if Darnold cannot keep defenses honest, opponents will just stack the box, making it tough for Jones to get going on the ground. I think his ADP could rise from around pick 55 with the chance of more checkdown passes coming from Darnold, so I still like drafting Jones, especially in PPR leagues.
Chandler should be avoided in standard league drafts, but is worth a pick in deeper leagues. He could carve out a little offensive role, but it probably won’t be enough to start him in deeper leagues all season.
Hockenson will be a starting option when he’s back from injury, but if the team is struggling early on, they probably won’t rush Hockenson. I expect his ADP to fall from pick 115. He’s worth grabbing as a backup fantasy TE, but his overall fantasy stock takes a hit with Darnold as his season-long QB now.
Oliver is a deep league streaming option early in the season if Hockenson is out, but I’d guess there’s some better options out there for you.
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