Analyzing ADP Wide Receiver Data: Are WRs Like Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Drake London, Stefon Diggs, D.J. Moore and More Being Drafted Early, Late or Just Right?

After analyzing fantasy football Average Draft Position data for quarterbacks and running backs, it’s time to do the same for the wide receiver position.

We won’t be able to cover nearly all of the relevant WR fantasy options for the season, but we’ll cover receivers currently being taken in the first four rounds. We’ll cover tight ends in a different story, so check back for that.

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First-Round Talents

There’s a bunch of good/great fantasy receivers going into the 2024 season. Right now, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown are all being drafted inside the first round on average.

Lamb is coming off a career season and it makes you wonder if there’s room left to improve on his big numbers. The Cowboys’ offense is pretty much the same as a season ago, so Lamb should still pretty easily be the top offensive playmaker.

It’s really a coin flip for me between Lamb or Hill at pick two after Christian McCaffrey. Hill has excelled a bit longer, so if I was forced to choose, that’s who I’m picking second.

Hill has over 1,700 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons. He’ll lead the Dolphins’ pass catchers again this season, so I have no problem using the No. 2 overall pick on him.

Jefferson dealt with injuries a season ago, but the reason I’m not as high on him is because of his quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins is gone and J.J. McCarthy and Sam Darnold are in.

Jefferson is talented enough to put up big numbers with any quarterback, but I’d prefer several other receivers going after him instead. I’d let someone else take the gamble on Jefferson unless he falls to pick 10 or later.

Chase had a pretty strong season last year, and he was without Joe Burrow for several games. With Tyler Boyd out of Cincy, I see Chase having his best year ever.

I’m all for taking Chase in the first round, and definitely prefer him over Jefferson. I’d start considering Chase at pick four after McCaffrey, Hill and Lamb.

St. Brown continues to improve with each NFL season he goes through. Detroit has a ton of offensive weapons, but ARSB should still pretty easily lead the way among the pass catchers.

St. Brown is another receiver I’d take over Jefferson, and would think about starting at pick four. He and Chase are ultra-close in my book.

Brown reached 100 receptions for the first time in his career in 2023. He’s been over 1,400 yards in back-to-back seasons and should see his touchdown catch number rise with a similar season.

I also like Brown over Jefferson, but like Chase and St. Brown instead. Getting him at his ADP or a pick earlier seems just right to me.

Second-Round Options

Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Drake London are all going in the second round right now.

Nacua is dealing with a knee injury right now. It’s not a great thing, but he also is expected to be ready to go for the regular season.

Nacua had an unreal rookie season, and while regression could come for his catches and yardage, a little bump in his touchdown reception mark would help offset that. His injury should push him a couple picks back, but I’m fine taking him early in the second round.

While Wilson is behind Nacua in ADP, I actually prefer Wilson. He went over 1,000 yards and had three scores with no reliable quarterback last season. If Aaron Rodgers stays healthy this season, Wilson could finish as one of the top fantasy wideouts in the game.

I like Wilson over Nacua, meaning I’d take Wilson early in the second round. I expect the Jets’ wideout to see his ADP rise to that level as the regular season draws near.

Harrison is one of the most hyped rookie receivers in some time. He should immediately be the top dog in Arizona, and with Kyler Murray healthy, Harrison could instantly be one of the top fantasy receivers.

It’s hard to trust rookies, but Harrison is about as good a rookie as you can get. I’m more than OK landing him in the middle of the second round, and think he’s got a chance to outproduce those second-round expectations.

London has a lot of hype, but doesn’t have the numbers to back it up yet. Having a better coach and quarterback should help London, but I’m not sold on him going this early in drafts. 

I actually am kind of confused as to why he’s going over several of the receivers we are about to discuss. I’d consider London about a round later, but want no part of him in round two.

Third-Round Guys

Davante Adams, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel Sr. all have ADPs in the third round.

Adams had a down season by his lofty standards, but should have a better QB situation this year. I expect a bit of a bounceback, meaning he’ll probably outperform his current ADP (which I’m fine selecting him at).

Olave improved a bit from his first to second NFL season. I’m not really high on the Saints’ offense, but Olave should easily lead the team again. I’d probably prefer him in the back half of the round, but it’s not a crazy reach to get him in the first half.

Collins is tough for me to judge this season. I love what he did in 2023, but it was his only season in three tries with great results, and now he’s got better wideouts around him. I still think Collins leads the team, but would prefer to get him several picks later than he’s currently going.

The Aiyuk trade situation makes judging him tough. Right now, he’s on the Niners, so that’s how we are going to discuss things. He’s probably actually a bit undervalued in his current situation, and I’d expect a bigger season than he had in 2023. I’m fine taking Aiyuk earlier in round three.

Samuel likely won’t reach his receiving totals he had in 2021 (unless Aiyuk is traded), but his ability as a rusher still makes Samuel a good fantasy asset. He’s a value pick, even this early in a fantasy draft, and I’m all for drafting him late in round three.

Round Four Receivers

Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, Stefon Diggs, Michael Pittman and D.J. Moore are the final wideouts I want to discuss. They are going in round four and rank 16-20 in ADP right now.

Evans is as consistent as they come for fantasy players. He’s over 1,000 yards in his first 10 NFL seasons, and has double-digit scores in three of the past four campaigns. The offense is very similar in 2024, so I expect similar numbers from a year ago, maybe with a touchdown or two less. Evans still feels like a steal at this point of the draft.

I’m a little higher on Waddle than most. He took a slight step back a season ago, but injuries played a role in that. He’ll play second fiddle to Hill, but that means plenty of opportunities for Waddle. He’s another good value pick near his ADP, with a pretty safe floor and good upside.

Diggs is set to join the third team in his career. He was the go-to guy most seasons so far, but I can’t say the same confidently this year. I’d prefer him several picks later than he’s currently going.

Pittman continues to improve each and every season. His touchdown total is still low, which is why he goes this late in fantasy drafts. He should again lead the Colts’ wideouts this season, and if Anthony Richardson can stay healthy, this might be another season of improvement for Pittman. I like his floor at his ADP, and think his upside makes him too good to pass on any longer.

Moore is kind of in a similar situation as Diggs, but Moore is still on the same team. He’s also got a new quarterback, so it makes sense why he’s going later in drafts. I think he’ll lead the Bears, but would feel a little better getting him a few picks later than he’s currently going.