Is it Important to have Top Pass Catchers from Your Fantasy Football Quarterback? The Patrick Mahomes-Travis Kelce Connections and Other Top Duos of the Recent Past
Examining the last five years of top 10 fantasy quarterbacks and how many had wide receivers and tight ends near the top of their fantasy positions.
There is a fantasy football draft strategy in which owners draft a quarterback and his top wide receiver or tight end. The logic is that you can double up when your QB finds his favorite target, getting 10 total points for every touchdown and racking up yards in unison.
It makes sense. Top quarterbacks often have great receivers, so both players are desirable in fantasy. How far should you take that theory, though? Is it worth reaching for a receiver and/or deciding on your QB based on which top receiver you draft?
That’s a lot of questions, so let’s see if we can find any answers. I looked at the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks over the last five years and found the PPR fantasy finish of their top wide receiver and tight end. I was looking for combinations where the top QBs had top-10 and -20 fantasy wide receivers and/or had top-10 tight ends.
As an example, Josh Allen was the top fantasy quarterback last season, and his top wide receiver was Stefon Diggs (WR9) and best tight end Dalton Kincaid (TE11). He had a top 10 connection with his receiver and just missed it with his tight end.
Numbers were consistent across the five-year span. About five QBs had a top-10 wide receiver and closer to four tight ends matched in the top 10 with their passer, making both essentially coin flips. About seven out of ten quarterbacks had top 20 receivers.
All fantasy point totals and rankings are from FantasyPros. There are tables at the bottom with all the information used in this exercise. QB/WR Top 20 means a top 10 quarterback and a receiver who finished between 11th and 20th.
2023
- QB/WR Top-10 Combos: Allen/Diggs, Jalen Hurts/A.J. Brown, Dak Prescott/CeeDee Lamb, Jared Goff/Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill, Baker Mayfield/Mike Evans
- QB/WR Top 20: Brock Purdy/Brandon Aiyuk
- QB/TE Top 10: Prescott/Jake Ferguson, Purdy/George Kittle, Goff/Sam LaPorta, Patrick Mahomes/Travis Kelce
Six quarterbacks had top-10 receivers and four had top-10 tight ends with two having both. Seven QBs had top-20 wide receivers.
Every receiver here seems like a top-10 or -20 guy almost regardless of quarterback (as long as the passer is competent). The Mayfield/Evans combo is the most surprising. Ferguson seems likely to reach the top 10 again, and Prescott could join him.
2022
- QB/WR Top 10: Allen/Diggs, Hurts/Brown, Kirk Cousins/Justin Jefferson, Goff/St. Brown
- QB/WR Top 20: Joe Burrow/Ja'Marr Chase, Geno Smith/Tyler Lockett, Trevor Lawrence/Christian Kirk
- QB/TE Top 10: Mahomes/Kelce, Justin Fields/Cole Kmet, Cousins/T.J. Hockenson, Lawrence/Evan Engram, Goff/Hockenson
Hockenson was traded from the Lions to the Vikings about halfway through the season, and both of his quarterbacks were in the top 10. Four quarterbacks had top-10 receivers, five had top-10 tight ends, and two had both. Seven quarterbacks had top-20 receivers.
Every top 10 QB/WR here repeated in 2023 except for Cousins and Jefferson, who both got hurt. This was Lawrence’s supposed breakout before his number regressed in 2023. It’s amazing what a difference two years can make…
2021
- QB/WR Top 10: Allen/Diggs, Tom Brady/Evans, Mahomes/Hill, Matthew Stafford/Cooper Kupp, Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams, Burrow/Chase
- QB/WR Top 20: Justin Herbert/Keenan Allen, Prescott/Lamb
- QB/TE Top 10: Brady/Rob Gronkowski, Mahomes/Kelce, Prescott/Dalton Schultz, Hurts/Dallas Goedert, Kyler Murray/Zach Ertz
Ertz played 11 games with the Cardinals after being traded over from Philadelphia. Six quarterbacks had top-10 receivers, five had top-10 tight ends and two had both. Eight QBs had top-20 wide receivers.
Some names are starting to repeat here. Allen and Diggs were both in the top 10 in four straight seasons. Mahomes and Kelce might have been the most consistent connection over the past five seasons, showing up each year.
2020
- QB/WR Top 10: Allen/Diggs, Murray/DeAndre Hopkins, Rodgers/Adams, Mahomes/Hill, Russell Wilson/DK Metcalf
- QB/WR Top 20: Deshaun Watson/Brandin Cooks, Ryan Tannehill/Brown, Brady/Evans, Burrow/Allen
- QB/TE Top 10: Rodgers/Robert Tonyan, Mahomes/Kelce, Brady/Gronkowski, Lamar Jackson/Mark Andrews
Five top quarterbacks had top-10 receivers, four had top-10 tight ends and two had both. Eight quarterbacks had top-20 receivers.
Mahomes had both Hill and Kelce in the top 10 at their respective positions in both ’20 and ’21. Jackson hasn’t had a pass catcher in the top 10 (or receiver top 20) since 2020, when he and Andrews matched up here. Some of that is due to the roster, and some is due to health.
You can tell we’re getting back in history when Tonyan shows up in a top 10 list. Tannehill stands out as well, but it reminded me of what a good running quarterback he was at his peak.
2019
- QB/WR Top 10: Prescott/Amari Cooper, Jameis Winston/Chris Godwin, Watson/Hopkins
- QB/WR Top 20: Wilson/Lockett, Allen/John Brown
- QB/TE Top 10: Jackson/Andrews, Mahomes/Kelce, Carson Wentz/Ertz
Three QBs had top-10 receivers, three had top-10 tight ends and no one had both. Five quarterbacks had top-20 wide receivers.
Speaking of names from the past, Wentz was a top 10 fantasy QB in 2019, ninth to be exact, one spot ahead of Rodgers. Allen and Diggs matched up every year from 2020 to ’23, but it’s interesting that Brown was a top 20 receiver here in Allen’s second season.
This season was the lowest in our sample in terms of total top 10 matches.
Takeaways
- 4.8 quarterbacks per season had a top 10 fantasy receiver
- 7.2 had a top 20 receiver
- 4.2 QBs per year had top 10 fantasy tight ends
It was close to a 50/50 proposition as far as top 10 passers having either a receiver or a tight end in the top 10 at their own position. Over 70% of quarterbacks had a receiver in the top 20, not a surprise as most QBs who rack up fantasy points have guys putting up production on the other end.
Just five out of the 50 quarterback seasons in our sample were guys without a top 10 tight end or top 20 receiver. Three of those were from Baltimore’s Jackson, Arizona’s Murray and the Giants’ Daniel Jones, three guys who generate a lot of value with their legs (Jones did in one year, at least). The other two were Rodgers and Love in two different generations of Packer teams without a dominant receiver but more depth.
A top fantasy quarterback without a high-scoring teammate is going to be producing with his legs as much as with his arm: Jackson, Murray, Fields, Washington’s Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis are the most likely players to accomplish this feat again. Top QBs who aren’t great athletes need a great pass catcher to excel.
2024 Players to Watch
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Each of these three has top 10 fantasy potential but also lacks a top pass catcher who can change the game. There are young guys who could step up, which would change the equation, but no one is projected to be a top 20 receiver.
These guys look like they’d have to be one of the few who can excel without a teammate doing the same thing. Love did it last season, but I wouldn’t bet on any of them doing it in 2024.
Data for this Exercise
2023
| Quarterback | Top WR with rank | Top TE with rank |
| Josh Allen, BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR9 | Dalton Kincaid, TE11 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | A.J. Brown, WR5 | Dallas Goedert, TE14 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | CeeDee Lamb, WR1 | Jake Ferguson, TE9 |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL | Zay Flowers, WR30 | Mark Andrews, TE15 |
| Jordan Love, GB | Jayden Reed, WR25 | Tucker Kraft, TE29 |
| Brock Purdy, SF | Brandon Aiyuk, WR14 | George Kittle, TE5 |
| Jared Goff, DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR3 | Sam LaPorta, TE1 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | Rashee Rice, WR27 | Travis Kelce, TE3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | Tyreek Hill, WR2 | Durham Smythe, TE34 |
| Baker Mayfield, TB | Mike Evans, WR7 | Cade Otton, TE20 |
2022
| Quarterback | Top WR with rank | Top TE with rank |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR27 | Travis Kelce, TE1 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR4 | Dawson Knox, TE14 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | A.J. Brown, WR6 | Dallas Goedert, TE12 |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | Ja'Marr Chase, WR11 | Hayden Hurst, TE21 |
| Geno Smith, SEA | Tyler Lockett, WR13 | Noah Fant, TE17 |
| Justin Fields, CHI | Darnell Mooney, WR72 | Cole Kmet, TE8 |
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | Justin Jefferson, WR1 | T.J. Hockenson, TE2 |
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | Christian Kirk, WR12 | Evan Engram, TE5 |
| Daniel Jones, NYG | Richie James, WR50 | Daniel Bellinger, TE34 |
| Jared Goff, DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR7 | T.J. Hockenson, TE2 |
2021
| Quarterback | Top WR with rank | Tope TE with rank |
| Josh Allen, BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR7 | Dawson Knox, TE11 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | Keenan Allen, WR11 | Jared Cook, TE18 |
| Tom Brady, TB | Mike Evans, WR9 | Rob Gronkowski, TE7 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | Tyreek Hill, WR6 | Travis Kelce, TE2 |
| Matthew Stafford, LAR | Cooper Kupp, WR1 | Tyler Higbee, TE14 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | Davante Adams, WR2 | Josiah Deguara, TE40 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | CeeDee Lamb, WR19 | Dalton Schultz, TE3 |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | Ja'Marr Chase, WR5 | C.J. Uzomah, TE19 |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | DeVonta Smith, WR30 | Dallas Goedert, TE9 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | Christian Kirk, WR26 | Zach Ertz, TE5 |
2020
| Quarterback | Top WR with rank | Top TE with rank |
| Josh Allen, BUF | Stefon Diggs, WR3 | Dawson Knox, TE37 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | DeAndre Hopkins, WR4 | Dan Arnold, TE23 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | Davante Adams, WR1 | Robert Tonyan, TE4 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | Tyreek Hill, WR2 | Travis Kelce, TE1 |
| Deshaun Watson, HOU | Brandin Cooks, WR17 | Jordan Akins, TE25 |
| Russell Wilson, SEA | DK Metcalf, WR7 | Will Dissley, TE43 |
| Ryan Tannehill, TEN | A.J. Brown, WR12 | Jonnu Smith, TE16 |
| Tom Brady, TB | Mike Evans, WR11 | Rob Gronkowski, TE8 |
| Justin Herbert, LAC | Keenan Allen, WR13 | Hunter Henry, TE12 |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL | Marquise Brown, WR36 | Mark Andrews, TE6 |
2019
| Quarterbacks | Top WR with rank | Top TE with rank |
| Lamar Jackson, BAL | Marquise Brown, WR46 | Mark Andrews, TE5 |
| Dak Prescott, DAL | Amari Cooper, WR10 | Jason Witten, TE11 |
| Jameis Winston, TB | Chris Godwin, WR2 | Cameron Brate, TE24 |
| Russell Wilson, SEA | Tyler Lockett, WR13 | Jacob Hollister, TE23 |
| Deshaun Watson, HOU | DeAndre Hopkins, WR5 | Darren Fells, TE17 |
| Josh Allen, BUF | John Brown, WR20 | Dawson Knox, TE32 |
| Kyler Murray, ARI | Larry Fitzgerald, WR35 | Charles Clay, TE45 |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | Tyreek Hill, WR32 | Travis Kelce, TE1 |
| Carson Wentz, PHI | Alshon Jeffery, WR59 | Zach Ertz, TE4 |
| Aaron Rodgers, GB | Davante Adams, WR23 | Jimmy Graham, TE21 |
