Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Report: Raheem Mostert, Marshawn Lloyd, Chase Brown and Jonathon Brooks

With preseason heading into its second week and training camps in full swing, fantasy football ADPs are now more volatile than ever. That is where this weekly ADP Report comes in. We can use the FantasySP ADP Tool, which automatically keeps track of each player’s trend over the last seven days, to see who is moving up and down draft boards.

Once we identify these top movers, we can break down why their ADPs are changing and whether or not that move is justified. Let’s get right in with this week’s top risers and fallers at the running back position:

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Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Risers

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals (-1.12)

This is actually a surprisingly low number for the biggest riser of the week during this time of draft season. It’s also not particularly clear why Brown is on the way up. It might simply be that he started the Bengals’ first preseason matchup while Zack Moss was sidelined by illness.

However, and I hate to say this, Brown’s performance, in a small sample size, wasn’t particularly impressive. He averaged just 2 yards on his five carries, and although this is hard to tell just from film, his decision-making seemed questionable. 

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This is particularly concerning because Brown already comes in with concerns about his ability to be a consistently efficient runner. He posted a 34.1% success rate as a rookie, the lowest of any rusher with at least as many as his 44 carries. The eye test agrees that Brown was an inefficient rusher, as he ranked 73rd out of 77 running backs with at least 40 carries in PFF Rush Grade.

On the other hand, he ranked 11th of those 77 backs with an 84.6 PFF Elusive Rating. He also has more receiving chops than Zack Moss, with whom he will be competing for touches in Cincinnati’s backfield.

Interestingly, Moss’ ADP fell a similar amount (1.48 spots) to Brown’s rise over the last week, so fantasy managers seem to be trending towards the sophomore over the veteran, although Moss’ ADP is still higher. Putting it all together, Brown’s new RB36 ADP isn’t terrible, but it is a bit high for my taste.

Even though chasing RBs in uncertain backfields with receiving upside is usually a smart call, I recommend avoiding Brown in the middle rounds of drafts, as he simply has not shown himself to be a consistently efficient rusher at the NFL level. 

Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins (-1.07)

Mostert is a lot like last week’s second-biggest riser, David Montgomery. Despite putting up very impressive numbers of his own last season, Mostert now finds himself being drafted multiple rounds behind his more explosive sophomore teammate, De'Von Achane.

Moreover, Mostert finds himself being drafted as the RB25 in PPR ADP despite finishing last year as the RB5 overall. With that in mind, I think Mostert’s recent rise is simply a result of more casual players returning to the fantasy football world as we get closer to Week 1. Where die-hard managers chase the tantalizing upside of Achane and fear Mostert’s age and injury history, more casual players simply see a top-five running back from last year in Round 7 and click that button.

In this case, I’m actually on the side of the casual managers, at least where Mostert is concerned (Achane is another story). Yes, Mostert is due for regression and will likely cede more work to Achane this year. But we saw last season that both of these backs can be productive at the same time.

Plus, injury upside cuts both ways. Achane is undersized and suffered multiple injuries during his rookie year; if he misses time, Mostert will immediately be a weekly RB1. FantasySP’s Daniel Hepner has already made the case for why Mostert is undervalued in more detail, but I agree. Even as his ADP is rising, you can’t go wrong drafting Mostert as a high-end RB3 or low-end RB2.    

Fantasy Football Running Back ADP Fallers

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (+2.46)

This one is pretty simple, and we see it every year. The closer we get to Week 1, the further players who come into the year with injuries (or suspensions) slide down draft boards. When push comes to shove, most fantasy managers don’t want to draft a player they can’t slot into their lineup in Week 1, especially not as early as Round 8. Brooks, coming off an ACL tear he suffered in his final season at Texas, is going to miss multiple weeks to begin his NFL career.

However, this is a case where the trend is in the wrong direction. The most important part of the fantasy football season is the end, not the beginning. It’s definitely not ideal, but fantasy rosters should start the season healthy, without bye weeks — able to deal with missing an RB3 for a few weeks.

And by the time the fantasy playoffs roll around, Brooks should be back on the field, serving as the unquestioned lead back in the Panthers offense. After all, Carolina selected him in the early second round despite his injury.

He is a talented prospect with the hands to contribute out of the backfield and a clear path to volume (Chuba Hubbard is no huge roadblock). Especially if his ADP continues to slide, Brooks is a great player to draft and stash in the middle rounds.  

Marshawn Lloyd, Green Bay Packers (+2.43)

This is unsurprising, as everything is going wrong for Llyod over the last few weeks. First, news came out that he was still behind the uninspiring AJ Dillon in competition for the Packers’ RB2 job. Then, he hurt his hamstring in the Packers’ first preseason game, an injury that puts his availability for Week 1 in jeopardy. 

On some level, Lloyd’s situation is similar to Brooks': This is a (hopefully) talented rookie rusher who is being pushed down draft boards for reasons that likely won’t last the whole season. But I’m not as eager to buy the dip with Lloyd as I am with Brooks.

The main difference is that Brooks will almost certainly eventually be his team’s RB1. Lloyd, a third-rounder who is now sharing a roster with not just Dillon but also big free agent signing Josh Jacobs, has a much more uncertain path to volume.

He needs every rep he can get in training camp to adjust to the NFL and prove his worth, and this hamstring injury means he won’t get that. Way down at RB50, Lloyd doesn’t cost much (and only barely qualifies for this list), so he’s not a terrible pick. But don’t go overboard in prioritizing him as a top sleeper, as there’s a very real chance his rookie year ends up being a bit of a redshirt situation.