Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Report: Buy the Dip on Brandon Aiyuk

The NFL season starts in just two weeks! This is peak drafting season, so it’s more important than ever to be locked in on any changes in ADP. With that in mind, let’s get started with the biggest movers in wide receiver ADP over the last week. As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days.

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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Risers

Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills (-2.57)

Coleman is a very interesting name to land on the top of our risers list, as he’s received a fair amount of criticism on fantasy Twitter for lackluster preseason performances. On the other hand, it’s still a good thing that the rookie was on the field consistently, as he dominated snaps with the Bills’ starters. 

With this rise, Coleman has snuck into the end of the eighth round in ADP, ranking as the WR42 overall. Unfortunately, he is just a bit overvalued at that price, although I don’t say that without some fear, as Coleman is absolutely the kind of player who could be a league-winner. After all, he was the first pick of the second round of the NFL Draft and is now on a Josh Allen-led team with tons of targets up for grabs.

However, Coleman’s profile as a prospect wasn’t particularly elite, and his game is one that sometimes struggles to adapt to the NFL level. If he were going a few rounds lower, he’d be worth drafting as a high-upside flyer. But drafting him in the eighth round is counting on Coleman to be a reliable contributor for your fantasy team, and there are a few too many question marks for that to be a good bet.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (-1.23)

A rise of barely more than one spot in ADP doesn’t sound like much, but that’s actually a huge move for a player being drafted in the first few rounds at this point in the draft season. Kupp’s new ADP is 31st overall, and he is being taken as the 15th receiver off the board. The 2021 overall WR1 is likely on the rise due to an injury to teammate Puka Nacua, as well as a fair amount of classic “best shape of his life” talk coming from Rams beat writers.

The tricky thing about Kupp is that we know he has league-winning upside. Even last year, dealing with injuries and sharing the field with the ascending Nacua, he averaged a 28% target share. But he is also 31 years old and has missed multiple games in both of the last two seasons.

Fantasy managers do consistently overrate the predictability of injuries (remember when Keenan Allen and Christian McCaffrey were must-fades due to injury risk?), but repeated leg injuries are a red flag for an aging receiver. Balancing the known risk and potential reward that Kupp carries, his new price seems fair. He’s the perfect WR2 to have on your team, with the upside to turn into more if he and Matthew Stafford can both stay healthy. 

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver ADP Fallers

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts (+9.30)

When a player falls this far this close to Week 1, there’s normally only one reason to blame, and that is the case for Downs. The sophomore slot receiver has been diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain, which will almost certainly sideline him for at least a few weeks to begin the season. As a result, his ADP, once as low as 137 overall, has ballooned to 175.

I wish I could recommend taking advantage of Downs' discounted ADP. After all, he’s going to be back sooner rather than later, and there are reasons to believe he is a well above-average talent. But his actual rookie-year numbers, including a 71 PFF Receiving Grade and 1.6 yards per route run, are more mediocre than they are excellent. More importantly, Downs ran just eight routes in two-receiver sets as a rookie.

The Colts did rank fifth in the league with at least three WRs on the field for 81.5% of their passing plays, but that’s still 20% of potential routes that Downs is missing out on. Given that Downs is tiny (5’7 and 171 pounds with very short arms) and graded horrendously (51.3 PFF Grade) as a run-blocker in 2023, I don’t see the Colts changing his usage. That means his ceiling has a hard cap.

Add in the still-unproven Anthony Richardson under center and the ankle issue, and Downs’ profile has too many red flags to be worth taking a chance on, even as he continues to slide down draft boards. 

Brandon Aiyuk, Team TBD (+4.10)

Earlier, I said that Kupp’s rise of just over one position was huge, given his third-round ADP. Well, Aiyuk is going just a few slots later than Kupp and has moved nearly four times as far … in the wrong direction.

It’s clear that Aiyuk is falling in response to the constant back-and-forth trade rumors, but what’s not clear is which possible scenario is scaring managers off (after all, the rumors change every day). It’s even possible that Aiyuk is just falling because of the uncertainty — even if it’s illogical, fantasy managers are human, and picking a player when you don’t know what team he will be on is uncomfortable. Aiyuk, at one point a second-round pick, is now being drafted outside the third round as the 20th WR off the board.  

This is one dip I will absolutely be buying. Whether it’s in San Francisco or Atlanta (the Steelers open their season away at the Falcons), Aiyuk will be playing NFL football in Week 1. If it’s for the 49ers, we just saw him put up a WR14 finish in both total points and points per game on this same team.

And while some may be worried about a potential move to the likely bad Steelers offense, I’m not. What Aiyuk may lose in efficiency leaving the 49ers,  he should make up in volume.

Last season, he ranked second among WRs in PFF Receiving Grade, third in yards per route run, first in ESPN’s Receiver Rating … and 36th in targets. Despite being arguably a top-three receiver in the league, Aiyuk saw one fewer target than Jakobi Meyers.

Yes, his per-target efficiency is going to decline from the historic 12.8 yards he recorded in 2023, the best ever for a 100-target receiver. But without Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle on his team, what’s stopping Aiyuk from racking up 150+ targets? Regardless of which team he ends up on, bet on the talent with Aiyuk and take the discount on a 26-year-old stud while you can.