Fantasy Football Tight End ADP Report: Should You Draft Trey McBride?

Ted takes a look at the biggest movers in fantasy football ADP at the tight end position over the last week.

The NFL season starts in just two weeks! This is peak drafting season, so it’s more important than ever to be locked in on any changes in ADP. With that in mind, today I will be looking at the biggest movers in tight end ADP over the last week. I’ll break down why each player might be moving and whether they are still a good pick at their new price — should you buy the dip on fallers or join the crowd on risers?

As always, all ADP data is found using FantasySP’s ADP Tool, which automatically tracks each player’s trend over the last seven days.

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Fantasy Football Tight End ADP Risers

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals (-2.00)

It’s insane that McBride, the TE4 overall and an early fifth-round pick, is the biggest overall riser among top 24 tight ends. This move of two slots represents an over 4% shift in his draft cost in just seven days. Even more intriguing, there’s no obvious reason why McBride is on the rise — no injury, no preseason highlight, not even some coachspeak. He’s simply moving up.

With that said, I think this move up is long overdue for McBride. If we look at the 10 games he played in 2023 without Zach Ertz, McBride was the undisputed TE1 in half-PPR points per game on a position-leading 8.5 targets per game.

Now, I wouldn’t necessarily say McBride should be drafted as the TE1. The arrival of an alpha receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. will make it very difficult for him to maintain the 29% target share he posted over those 10 games. Luckily, you don’t have to draft him as the TE1. Even following this rise, McBride is going over 20 full picks beyond Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta, the first two tight ends off the board.

He’s also only being drafted two picks ahead of Dalton Kincaid, a player who managers are hoping will replicate the huge sophomore leap McBride made last year. It is absolutely a great idea to grab McBride (or Mark Andrews, who goes just a few picks before him) at these ADPs, getting a player with a very similar profile to Kelce/LaPorta at a two-round discount. 

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets (-1.42)

This move, despite being similar in size, is nowhere near as impactful as McBride’s. Conklin is being drafted in the 16th round, and is still just the TE20 after this move. With that said, he is clearly on the way up: His new 188th overall ADP is a big improvement over his spot at the beginning of the draft season, which was solidly in the 200s.

As with McBride, there is no obvious reason why Conklin is rising up boards. But this is another justified rise. Conklin finished 2023 13th at the TE position in targets, seeing over five looks per game. His fantasy production was nothing to write home about, largely thanks to the fact that he led the league in receptions without a touchdown at 61 — no other tight end had more than 35 catches without a touchdown.

Even without any changes, Conklin would be due touchdown regression this year. And many are projecting the Jets’ offense to take a huge step forward with the return of Aaron Rodgers. I’m personally more skeptical on this front, but I’m much more willing to take a bet on Rodgers elevating Conklin from TE25 in points per game to TE20 than Garrett Wilson from WR39 to WR8. In deep leagues or those with a boost to tight end value, Conklin is absolutely viable as a high-volume late-round option with untapped TD upside on a potentially improved Jets offense.

Fantasy Football Tight End ADP Fallers

Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.92)

This is back-to-back weeks as the top faller among tight ends for Otton, who is now down nearly three full rounds in under a month. As I said last week, I’m not sure why managers are souring on Otton so rapidly at this stage in the offseason. The third-year tight end is by no means a special talent, but he’s going to dominate snaps like few other players at the position do. 

After another week of freefall, he is now all the way down to TE24 in ADP. That is behind multiple players who are much less likely to see full-time roles: Isaiah Likely, Mike Gesicki and Ben Sinnot, just to name a few.

If you’re in a two-TE league, or looking for a late-round tight end for your best ball team, Otton is absolutely worth drafting ahead of all three of those names. In a traditional one-TE league, he might not bring the same upside … but none of those guys should be being drafted anyway, so it doesn’t matter.

Ben Sinnott, Washington Commanders (+5.27)

I’m having déjà vu. Sinnott joined Otton as the second-biggest faller among the top 24 tight ends last week, and he claims that spot again this week. Again, you can check out last week’s article for a more in-depth take, but this fall is justified. 

All indications are that Sinnott will play a part-time role, if that, to start his NFL career. He could become valuable if the 33-year-old Zach Ertz suffers an injury, but it’s not worth holding a tight end handcuff in normal leagues. In two-TE or TE-premium leagues, you’re better off drafting someone who can contribute in Week 1. Even having fallen over 40 spots from his peak ADP, this rookie tight end is still overvalued.

Bonus: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (-0.4)

Because this week’s two fallers are repeats, here is a special feature on Kittle, who is interesting for how little he has moved over the last week. The Brandon Aiyuk trade rumors have impacted the ADPs of Aiyuk himself (down 18 picks from his peak) and San Francisco’s other top receiver, Deebo Samuel (who has bounced between the second and third rounds). But Kittle, who arguably stands the most to gain if Aiyuk were to be traded, has hardly budged. He has moved a whopping total of three spots over the last month, which is more of a rounding error than a real response to the rumors.

The closer we get to Week 1, the less likely it is that Aiyuk will be traded. But if he is, Kittle should immediately be ranked as a top-five tight end, at least. After all, he has finished as a top-five TE in each of his last five healthy seasons, including three top-three finishes. The problem with Kittle for fantasy is week-to-week consistency. With Deebo, Aiyuk, and now Christian McCaffrey all competing for targets, Kittle has more than his fair share of dud weeks in between his three-touchdown games. If Aiyuk is traded, those dud weeks will be a thing of the past. 

I’m not saying to reach for Kittle as a top-five tight end, but it might be worth sliding him a spot or two up your board as long as the Aiyuk situation is unsettled. If things go the right way, Kittle could be a huge value in a suddenly improved situation. 

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