Bold Fantasy Predictions for the AFC and NFC North: Can Sam Darnold, Derrick Henry, Tee Higgins and More Over-Achieve?
One bold prediction for each team in the NFL's North divisions related to individual players or team performance.
This set of predictions is very positive. I was down on a few teams in Monday’s look at the AFC and NFC East, expecting several squads to feature many more fantasy duds than studs. It’s not that I like negativity (that’s a lie; I thrive on negativity), but sometimes the truth hurts.
All eight teams in the North divisions could conceivably make the playoffs this season. There’s not a guaranteed loser among the bunch, though some teams obviously have better postseason odds than others. Without a bad team, that means plenty of good fantasy players are available with some likely to outplay expectations.
Below, I have made one bold prediction for each team in the AFC North and NFC North. Nothing is too outrageous; everything here is very capable of happening. This is more about the stronger feelings I have about players on these teams and what some of the best (or worst) case scenarios might look like.
Let’s start with last year’s AFC No. 1 seed and a veteran they brought in to help push them over the top in the postseason.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry will be a top-five fantasy back
Other than 2021 when he played only eight games, Henry was a top-10 fantasy back in both standard and PPR scoring in every season between 2019-2023. He was still in the top 20 in 2021 and also ranked there in 2018. There hasn’t been a more consistent fantasy running back than Henry over the past 10 years.
It’s hard to evaluate the recent Baltimore running game in terms of how Henry will fit in. Lamar Jackson has handled so much of the load both through scrambles and designed runs that the backs have all been secondary players.
The supposed top back for the team has also suffered an injury fairly often, leaving a rotation of backs or a middling guy (usually Gus Edwards) handling most of the carries. No Baltimore running back in the Jackson era has made a real impact in the passing game, so Henry is likely to stay at his past levels in that area (something around 20 receptions for 200 yards).
Henry is going to be leading the backfield for a good offense that will score a lot. His eight-game 2021 is the only season in which he’s played less than 15 games, showing great health for his position. There’s going to be high-level volume heading Henry’s way, likely giving him some big weeks playing next to the most dynamic quarterback in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins will be among the top 20 wide receivers
Higgins was drafted as a top-15 receiver in all formats last season. Despite sharing receiving targets with superstar Ja'Marr Chase, Higgins had back-to-back seasons with 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards and six or seven touchdowns in 2021 and 2022.
Higgins was seen as a star forced into a WR2 role by his generational teammate. Then everything went wrong in 2023: Joe Burrow missed the whole preseason, struggled upon returning, then went down for the rest of the season with a different injury after 10 games. Jake Browning took over under center, and though he had some success, he’s not Burrow.
Cincinnati’s second receiver had injury issues of his own, appearing in just 12 games. Higgins missed Burrow’s last two games and one during the stretch, getting just seven outings with his quarterback. It was far from a normal season for Higgins, and his performance, both real and fantasy, suffered.
Higgins is being drafted near the 30th receiver this season. He can often be gotten in the sixth or seventh round when last year he was going in the second round in some drafts. With Joe Burrow back and Higgins presumably healthy, the latter is likely to finish closer to his 2021-22 numbers than last season’s catastrophe.
While he’s on the franchise tag and previously requested a trade, Higgins has been in training camp and looks ready to go for Week 1. With his next deal on the line, the fifth-year receiver has plenty to play for, so we might get a little contract-year magic. Things seem to be pointing up for Higgins.
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb will be a top-10 running back from Weeks 10-18
Chubb suffered a terrible knee injury early last season, costing him most of 2023 and likely the beginning of 2024. It’s very possible Chubb starts the season on IR and misses at least the first four games, taking away any early fantasy value and hurting his season-long totals.
I’m thinking more about the fantasy playoffs, though. Chubb was one of the top running backs in the league before suffering his injury. He was a clear top-five back in 2023 fantasy drafts (causing a lot of disappointment that he couldn’t control).
Assuming Chubb returns no later than Week 8, he will have time to play into game shape by the end of the season and get as strong as he can in 2024. There aren’t any high-level players that will fight him for carries: Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong and D'Onta Foreman aren’t going to be carrying the team while Chubb is out.
When the injured veteran returns, he will likely get as many carries as his body can handle, a number that might start over 20. On a team with a strong offensive line and a quarterback who has struggled throwing the ball since arriving in Cleveland, Chubb could be a key piece late in the season as the Browns fight for the playoffs.
If your league has an IR spot, I like the idea of drafting Chubb in the middle rounds and stashing him with the hope you can get a few weeks of RB1 production late in the season. If one of your league-mates does the same thing, it might be worth exploring a trade when Chubb is nearing his return, especially if that owner has suffered injuries at another position.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Justin Fields will finish among the top 15 quarterbacks
Russell Wilson has a higher floor and is probably the better real-life option for the Steelers to win this season. He’s also the boring option. Wilson had times when he played a more exciting brand of football, but he aged first into a more efficient passer and now into an inexplosive quarterback who they hope can be competent.
In that case, Pittsburgh is asking for a quarterback to not lose games rather than making big plays to win. Wilson isn’t a fantasy option except for the odd week as a possible streamer.
Fields has a much higher ceiling, both in the real world and in fantasy football. Specific to fantasy, Fields has running ability that very few quarterbacks possess. He ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns in 2022. He finished as QB6 that season.
If either Wilson gets hurt or he underwhelms as the Steelers start with a few losses, Fields may get the call, and if he can make a few plays with his legs while connecting on several deep passes, Fields can stand out in a way that seems less likely for Wilson.
New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith just came from Atlanta where he was operating the most run-happy offense in the league. If he brings that philosophy with him, the team would likely incorporate Fields into the run game, making him a better fit than Wilson and a potential fantasy star.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: D.J. Moore will be a top-10 wide receiver
I was wrong about Moore. I thought he was coming to a Bears team that was going to focus on the run with Fields under center. I saw Moore getting less volume than ever before and watching his fantasy value plummet as a result.
Instead, he finished as WR6 in both standard and PRR scoring. Moore set career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns while catching the ball from Fields and undrafted rookie Tyson Bagent.
Moore has a new quarterback this season. A guy who can use his legs but is more prolific with his arm. He’s also one of the most celebrated rookie quarterbacks ever: No. 1 pick Caleb Williams. Moore is set up to be one of the top receivers in the league this season.
The main knock against Moore is the fight for targets that will take place. The Bears traded for veteran Keenan Allen this offseason and drafted Washington WR Rome Odunze ninth overall. A unit that was among the worst in the league two years ago has added a past, present and potentially future superstar around their blue-chip quarterback.
Throw in tight end Cole Kmet and Moore has plenty of competition to get the ball thrown his way. Moore is also the most talented player in that group and will likely lead the team in every receiving category. The extra pieces also mean teams can’t key in on stopping Moore, so he might get more one-on-one looks than in past seasons.
A star receiver with a possible superstar quarterback brings a lot of fantasy potential, and Moore wouldn’t be a total surprise as a WR1 this season.
Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams will be a top-40 fantasy receiver
This might not seem like a major statement compared to something like “Moore in the top 10,” but Williams is rated WR54 in PPR by ESPN and has mostly been a non-factor in his first two seasons. Williams isn’t being drafted in many 10-team leagues.
In case you don’t remember who he was coming out of college, Williams was seen as a WR1 who could hit a home run at any time. He suffered a major knee injury in the college National Championship Game before entering the draft, so teams knew he would miss most of his first season.
The Lions still traded up 20 spots in the first round to draft him 12th overall because he had the look of their future top receiver. After missing most of that first season, he began 2023 suspended because of a gambling violation. Williams hasn’t had a normal training camp and start to the season yet, and he’s only 23 years old.
Detroit has a lot invested in Williams and reason to help him succeed. He has gotten the ball on a few screens and plays designed for him as the team looks to involve him; Williams took a handoff 42 yards for a touchdown in the NFC Championship Game.
This is a player finally getting his first chance at a normal offseason while playing in a highly successful offense as an explosive component. There’s boom-and-bust to his game, and there will be the odd weeks with one catch for 17 yards, but Williams will have big games, too, where he makes those explosive plays and puts the ball in the end zone.
Green Bay Packers: Green Bay will have a starting-level player in at least three of the four offensive fantasy positions
This means the top 10 for quarterbacks and tight ends and the top 20 for running backs and wide receivers (thinking of a 10-team league; you can expand for your own purposes). The Packers are one of the hottest picks for an up-and-coming Super Bowl contender, maybe getting as much heat as their division-mates in Detroit who almost made the big game last year.
Jordan Love finished 2023 on a heater, but he was a fantasy stud all year. He finished as QB5 and is positioned to repeat that performance. Not much has changed; his young pass catchers are all a year older, and an offensive line that was above average a year ago looks as good or better, including the addition of first-round pick Jordan Morgan.
Speaking of those pass catchers, Jayden Reed led the team in receptions (64), receiving yards (793) and receiving touchdowns (eight, tied with Romeo Doubs) last season as a second-round rookie. Some still think Christian Watson, another former second rounder, has the higher upside, but I’m in on Reed.
Watson has dealt with injuries in both of his seasons, playing just 23 games in two years. He has shown explosiveness at times and a nose for the end zone, but I don’t like counting on oft-injured players. Reed played in 16 games last season and finished close to WR20 in both standard and PPR.
Two rookie tight ends shared most of the reps and will likely handle the position over the next few years. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft each had around 30 receptions for 350 yards and one or two touchdowns last year, but Musgrave did it in 11 games and Kraft in 17. Musgrave looks like the lead guy if health doesn’t become a consistent issue.
Reed and Watson are both being drafted in the 30s among receivers, and Musgrave is around 15th among tight ends. They are available outside of fantasy starter draft range but have a quarterback seen as a top 10 player, and each has stretches of individual success (especially Reed).
Running back Josh Jacobs is a little bit different story. He’s being taken around the 12th back and is expected to produce like a fantasy starter. It’s no bold statement to expect him to be a top-20 player at his position. As much as I was happy as a Raiders fan that they didn’t sign Jacobs to a big contract, he should still be a decent fantasy player and rack up points through volume if nothing else.
Minnesota Vikings: Sam Darnold will finish among the top 15 fantasy quarterbacks
Darnold gets here a different way than Fields. Rather than showing his ability in a shorter time, Darnold is going to start for one of the most pass-happy coaches in the league. Volume will be Darnold’s friend.
Since head coach Kevin O’Connell took over after the 2021 season, the Vikings have been third in pass attempts (2022) and five attempts away from most passes thrown (2023). This was done mostly with Kirk Cousins under center, and it’s easy to think that the playbook will be tweaked with a new QB to a more run-centric offense.
Much of 2023 happened without Cousins and/or top receiver Justin Jefferson, though, and the team still threw as much as anyone. Cousins averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game last year in eight games, and all other Minnesota quarterbacks threw the ball 35 times per game.
Just 11 teams (including the Vikings) threw the ball 35 times per game last season, so Minnesota was still in the top third of the league in passing volume without their starting QB. I don’t see O’Connell turning his offensive philosophy on its head just because of the change under center, giving Darnold plenty of chances to rack up stats.
There was also the issue of rookie J.J. McCarthy likely splitting time during the season with Darnold or taking the job outright. It was announced that McCarthy will have surgery and miss the season, though, leaving Darnold as the unquestioned starter. Darnold could start 17 games and throw the ball 600 times.
He will likely be fantasy relevant on the right weeks and able to be streamed depending on the opponent, especially with guys like Jefferson and Jordan Addison running routes and no one better than the aged, previously injured Aaron Jones at running back.
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